just an educated guess maybe. i dont play sngs or mtts or DoNs, so i def could be wrong. But going 0 for 12 in anything right after moving up sounds like a stop should have come earlier. Maybe by playing a smaller set when moving up or something. Im a BR nit so idk

what are DoN's?

'do or not's'

It's a type of poker where you have to decide if raising is something you want to do or not.

From the sounds of it, you'd think not. But I've probably cashed out about $15-20k lifetime or so. But it's been rough going the last 6 months or so, and not playing consistently doesn't help.

Double or nothing.
SNGs (on Stars) where half the field wins one BI and the other half wins nothing. Kinda like a mini satellite.

DoNS= double or nothing, Im too lazy to study the ICM adjustments to play them

o i c,

so basically mini satellites

btw there are not many MTT for people who live in Europe

If you'd make an efford to travel between th UK, Monaco, Vienna, Paris + Spain, Germany, Nordic countries, eastern Europe there's plenty to play.

Rough odds of me going 0/12 in a set is like somewhere around 1%. Even so, I still have near 40 BIs for the 16s, which was worst case scenario. And it's not like I don't have any reason to believe I can't beat the 27s, so playing a smaller set doesn't really have an advantage. I don't have the best BR management, but I see nothing wrong with playing a set of 27s with 35 BIs if I plan on dropping back down if I lose x BIs or whatever. I just didn't expect to go 0/12, because that's ****ing ******ed.

WHere do you find these DoN's? I looked in the SNG section, but didn't see them.

This is probably a hint that I'm too stupid to win them.

You're sure you're looking at Stars. They're not exactly hidden. They're sitting right in the SNG section, single tables.

Maybe you have a filter on, they are 10 player SNGs. Otherwise they are under 1 table SNGs and have a [Double or Nothing] appended to the name.

Like magic, imo

River,

Not sure what your exact downswing has been but if you play 100 and are 50/50 to make the money (which is an underestimate hopefully because that means you are -EV) then there is about a 2.8% chance that you will go 40/60 or worse, which is 20 buyins. If your true ITM% is 55% then the chance of that kind of run is .18% or about 18 in 10,000 times.

Put another way, for a 55% ITM guy playing 100 DoNs every week, on average once every 10 YEARS they would finish a week down 20 buyins.

clown, I meant on the internet

afaik there are no good places to study the ICM adjustments. The ICM calculator is unable to adjust to the massive differences in values of chips depending on stack size, blinds, number of people left, position, and stack sizes of other players (I've said this a lot in the DoN thread). The DoN thread is also not that great (some people give good advice, other people give horrible advice, though it is getting better). I learned simply by thinking about it and I'm pretty sure I'm in the upper echelon of winning players (in terms of ROI) in the 20s and 50s.


My ROI is above 10%. I think thats like a 58% ITM (not positive though, someone better at math may want to do the calculations). I had a 30 BI downswing. I play easily 3-4x that many DoNs per week. If I ever run bad in poker again I am going to be convinced that its all luck.

lol, get ready to convince yourself then

Oh lol the time zone stuff. Maybe check out Party, Everest, the Swedish site etc.

should have been "this bad". That downswing that would occur less than once every 10 years (and probably significantly less) took me a month and a half to hit. ****ing stars. Support maintains that its not rigged and there is no doomswitch. They also informed me, in a slightly condescending manner, that all my hand histories are available for their review (this is after sending them stats regarding my hhs). Then they tell me I can't get Jeff Hwang's book with FPPS and to try to buy it at onecall.com (which to my knowledge only sells DVDs and electronics).

I am ranting right now, but I am angry.

those DoN's look so tilt inducing. I cant imagine just flipping over and over

i think id lose my soul

Out of the millions of players that play poker there are bound to be a bunch of people that hit a once in every 10 year downswing fairly regularly.

and if that happens to be me- then poker is rigged and luck based. How is that hard to understand?

meh i had a -100 buyin in equity late summer / fall

just accept it and learn from it?

Sorry, I'll let you be mad.

Just saying you should always expect you can run worse. I've been through some mathematically unbelievable times. But there's always a worse time waiting to happen in your poker life.