thats not what i was trying to say.
what i was trying to say was that i was working off pride/godkata w/w earlier because of the maj thing but now reevaluated.

the reason why i think godkata is villa now is because of the feeling that we had v/v wagons all along and because of his view on the peek post on you.

lets say that he is villa. that would make complete sense with all the EODs so far, no ? wolves had to basically do nothing but watch us screw up. shiitake for instance wouldnt even have to vote on wagon because we were busy lynching villas all game. (i say this without being 100% sure who shiitake voted every day)

thats where im at right now. and fwiw its really hard to keep up and write out my thoughts and at the same time read yesterday .

if the godkata wagon ever would have started moving he wouldnt have been in a tie and thats with everyone who thought he was wolfy already on him rather than willing to switch. godkata cant even get people to vote him for some reason.

this is not true. he left clear peeks, but you guys are choosing to ignore them and chase things that are CLEARLY NOT peeks.

atakpride signals that he'd vote shiitake over EAO

shiitake still tied for lead wagon with twenty minutes left in the day

godkata places an off-wagon vote


shiitake leaves with (a) 15 minutes to go in the day; (b) himself tied for lead wagon (with atakpride also signaling that he would vote shiitake over the other lead wagon); and (c) no discernable sense of urgency

Pavel, please tell me how this is at all villagery. It reads to me like a wolf confident that he would not get lynched today because his wolf team would bail him out with a EAO copout lynch.

about shiitake; Ellinika also asks Thax what his opinion of shiitake is

so the n1 nightkill thinks shiitake is wolfy

eventually be a nk target, huh?

Strongly leaning wolf on shiitake after this sequence; his leaving in a carefree manner with fifteen minutes to go in the day and tied for the lead wagon is just really, really wolfy.

Will continue looking at this EOD, but I'd like people's thoughts.

this is a valid point i guess but i have to start somewhere and thats just how i feel. i could be wrong and my proof isnt really proof at all but more of a tone read and my reaction to wagons and EOD's. if im wrong about godkata im probably wrong about pavel too but that doesnt get me any closer to finding the wolves.

does my reply to pavel on the same subject and this answer your question ?

what was his other clear peek? your mother? despite him saying that your mother is villagery only because you're a wolf who's been pushing him?

Pavel/shiitake/xxx are my wolves aorn

the way shiittake reacted to the modkill and the quick realization that we needed to no lynch to avoid a wolf pile on seems very villagery. this is part of what makes me hesitate on lynching him. I imagine a wolf would try to use the afk players to get a mislynch there.

shiitake still tied for the lead with 14 minutes to go, but oh what a pity, he's left for the day now!

godkata pushing against a shiitake lynch

Pavel setting up a cfd

Thax agreeing that there are better lynches than shiitake on d1 (despite finding shiitake wolfy overall) -- I can see where Thax is coming from here, and I think he was influenced in part by shiitake flat-out leaving the thread as lead wagon



godkata reinforcing the notion of a your mother cfd

shiitake still tied for lead wagon with 10 minutes to go; what were you saying, Pavel, about godkata always being a more realistic lynch candidate than shiitake?

billy switches votes, taking shiitake out of the lead, and at this point it was functionally atakpride/EAO wagons

godkata tries to make a your mother push

Cliffs: we let shiitake off the hook way too easily on d1; him leaving like that was absurd and his tone when leaving was ridic wolfy. Pavel looks awful if shiitake flips wolf, and godkata doesn't look great either.

i touched on this too. i think on d2 i said this was evidence of shiitake villa because i couldnt fathom a wolf having that much confidence in his team to not even check wagons OR see that he is tied and trust in his team to not get him killed.

because of the result and because of the shape the wolves are in right now im inclined to believe my d2 assumption was wrong.


all good points. again, i already said as much. iirc i said something like: 'remember guys thax had shiitake as wolfy and the next thing you know thax gets nightkilled'

i really like how we seem to be on the same page quoth. if you are a wolf kudos to you, you played. if you are the villa i think you are im glad we agree.

would you agree with shiitake > pavel > pup/billy for lynch order ?

super-thin assumption given the likelihood that we have very good wolves

what are your thoughts on shiitake leaving the thread with fifteen minutes to go on d1 when he was tied for lead wagon, Pavel? what are your thoughts on his tone in his final d1 post there?

I understand why you feel this way. However, I think the mistake is that you are looking at one isolated post. Normally that would be fine because seers don't go out of there way to leave conflicting information, but if you look at everything ascetic acid posted, the only way I can think of to make sense of it is that he left two sets of peeks, his "fakepeeks" and his real peeks

That post is his "fakepeeks", i.e pavel wolf and mary sue villager

his real peeks were mary sue villager and your mother villager

You can tell which ones are the fake ones by seeing how he clarified that he didn't peek pavel n1 and that he can't be held responsible for wrong "fakepeeks".

The fakepeeks were to try to generate reads in the thread

yes this is awfully FPSy but it's the only way to make sense of everything he posted imo

the post where he says we cant lynch mary sue and we cant lynch your mother. that is super clear, very plain, and concise. seers dont feel a need to leave a longwinded explanation for peeks because explanations are meant to clarify and there is nothing to clarify about a peek. mary sue was super clear and never received any heat, why would a seer lump your mother in with her if he didnt peek her? youre overthinking the answer. he simply would not.

I didnt remember the wagons going down like that. what is your explanation for godkata never becoming a lead wagon on any day despite constantly being pinged as wolfy by numerous players?

My tiers aorn, wolfiest to least:

shiitake and Pavel

(decent gap)

godkata and Ellinika

(decent gap)

atakpup

(smallish gap)

Billy

I'd really like to hear from Billy.

and leaving as a lead wagon is something many more villas do than wolves. wolves feel a sense of team and responsibility to hold up their end of the bargain more than villas do. part of this comes from each incremental wolf mattering more than each incremental villager.

FGDLSFJFJ SO TILTED RIGHT NOW. QUOTH, YOURE DOING EXACTLY WHAT MARY SUE TOLD YOU NOT TO DO. DO NOT TUNNEL ME AND DO NOT PUSH MY WAGON.

disagree

disagree -- he specifically said that your mother was villagery because you were a wolf. He specifically said that. There's no reason to look beyond the face of his words there.

There's not much I can do about the fact that the EOD times are hard for me to be around on. It's pretty clearly not the case that I was faking it on d1 since it's been that way every single day

At the time on d1 I thought I would have more time, and then something came up and I had to leave right away. It's obviously harder to explain these things in a gimmick game when I'm supposed to mask my identity, but trying to draw inferences from me having to leave on d1 is just bad. I didn't even have time to catch up

I disagree with this as well, and pretty strongly.

I'm not voting you, am I? Chill the hell out, dude.

Care to explain why you falsely stated that shiitake has never been a realistic lynch?

thoughts are below. tone is neutral. a wolf wouldnt leave imo.

why is this thin? with good wolves they would defintely try to see what they can make happen rather than choosing what was definitely the right option upon reflection.

I TOLD YOU. I DIDNT REALIZE THAT WAGONS WENT DOWN LIKE THAT. I RMEMBERED GODKATA AS HAVING MORE HEAT AND SHIITAKE LESS. SOMETIMES I FORGET MINUTIAE OVER THE COURSE OF MULTIPLE DAYS.

Correcting typos:

These assumptions make me think your mother is villager since Pavel is pushing her.

These assumptions.

Since Pavel is pushing her.

You cannot get past the plain meaning of that sentence. Your mother was not ascetic's peek.

would you agree that billy looks worse from that than godkata if shiitake flips wolf ?

IF billy is a wolf that would make shiitake all the more comfortable leaving knowing that it was effectively only 2 votes on him.

you see how easily billy made it a EOA/atakpride race instead of shiitake being in danger of getting lynched.

godkata OTOH seems more like a misguided or confused villager from that to me. (much like myself)

It's thin b/c no lynch was the obvious option and a wolf gains easy villa points for acknowledging it before anyone else.