how do you plan to defend yourself postgame when it comes to light that he did in fact peek your mother and I was a villa?

shockingly I posted in lockstep with mary too.

short answer: because that post is his "fakepeeks". What I see in his thought process for the day, starting from his first post where he quotes your mother's reads and says he agrees with them, is that based on knowing your mother is a villager he suspects pavel because of the way pavel pushed your mother. because of that, he goes on to probe pavel about "what if I peeked you?" but he very quickly makes sure to rescind the fact and make it clear he didn't. There is literally no reason to do that if he peeked pavel wolf, but I think he did so because he thought pavel's reaction was OK and wanted to make it clear. I also think the "last night" is really a red herring.

Then I think later he decided he still was suspicious, so he makes another fakepeeks post, the one you are hung up on. It's not hard for him to cast clearing your mother being a villager as a consequence of pavel being a wolf, since in reality he thinks pavel being a wolf is in consequence of your mother being a villager. But AGAIN he makes a post shortly thereafter to clarify that he can't be held responsible for "fakepeeks", which is exactly what he called pavel: "I am so confident he can be one of my fakepeeks". So he clarifies that he didn't "peek" pavel on the one hand, and that he can't be held responsible for "fakepeeks" on the other

there's just no reason for the seer with a pavel wolf peek to do this, at all.

Then you combine that with his d1 posts about mary that are pretty clearly peekish, and his d2 posts about not lynching mary and not lynching your mother, and I think this is the most plausible reading of it.

i disagree. my whole reason being that acid is a seer trying to stay alive as long as possible to get as many peeks as possible.

if i was a seer i would say my peeks were fakepeeks. he was doing it all of d1 because you know what saying your peeks are fakepeeks makes you look like a villager while saying theyre peeks makes you look like a seer.

well everyone else was wrong. if its fake you say its fake. its the villagers who are at fault here. villagers who are leaving cover have absolutely 0 upside and a lot of downside to using the word fake to describe their peeks. theyre the ones at fault.

this is a good point

this is how, paraphrasing here:

godkata pointed out he peeked pavel=w and mary=v. he then says because of these assumptions(ie. peeks) im inclined to think your mother = v.

i cant believe u dont see it this way too. unless of course you are a wolf with pavel who doesnt wanna see a wolf get lynched.

the conclusion is wrong. saying they are peeks makes you look like a villager more than a seer.

This is yesterday:

someone else fires up the pavel peeked wolf train, ellinika on it full steam. There's no hint of a lack of confidence here, but then after it turns out not to be a clear consensus:

especially wolfy also given that atakpride flipped villager

Now ellinika comes in today:

no mention of pavel being a peeked wolf

and now once the train gets fired up again he's right back on it.

and with the same tone as when he was pushing it yesterday, which is distinctly different then the "gosh I don't know what to think" tone.

the fact that nobody has voted Pavel yet today makes me more confident that he's a wolf btw

DUCY?

i already explained this (badly) today. i was working off mary sue, a pretty clear villa to me then, finding the peeks and going from there. first mary found pavel=w. so i voted him. iirc i didnt hard push him or anything. then mary wasnt sure and pointed out possible your mother=v peek.

like i said, my bad for not being confident in finding peeks myself. but because they werent 100% clear to me or mary at the time i backed off pavel and went an entirely different route. i thus voted godkata for the whole atakpride maj thing the EOD before. then, sadly, i had to leave for the day and only got back this morning.

what you are saying here is i should be lynched cause im a bad villa, which is probably true, but not because i am a wolf.

i believe we should be lynching a wolf today. not a bad villa.
which, btw, is also my reason for wanting to lynch you then pavel then pup or billy and not lynch pup first. because imo he could very easily be bad villa with no time to play this game.

you expected a wolf to come out and vote him early if he was a villager?

my experience is typically wolves would rather wait and let a villager vote first. There are pretty clear strategic incentives for wolves to do so.

why would he assume his peek was right but CONCLUDE his conclusion was right. assumption is a weak word. you arent paying attention to diction.

let's sum up:

Everyone's Top Two Wolves aorn

Pavel: godkata and atakpup

Quoth: Pavel and shiitake

shiitake: Ellinika and...?

Ellinika: shiitake and...?

feel free to add to this

ellinika and atakpup

that's not quite the reason I was thinking of

no. the wolves are waiting for a clear villager like you to make a misstep. billy hasnt even shown up and hes the second clearest. they want to wait for one of you guys to vote before they do.

i'm not sure what other reason there could be that would hinge on his role.

i.e whether or not a villager votes him can't really depend on whether or not he's a wolf, the villager doesn't know

updating this:

Everyone's Top Two Wolves aorn

Pavel: godkata and atakpup

Quoth: Pavel and shiitake

shiitake: Ellinika and atakpup

Ellinika: shiitake and...?

godkata: Pavel and...?

feel free to add to this or correct it

lol no

Everyone knows that I think you were peeked wolf. Everyone also knows that godkata and Ellinika are receptive to the notion that you were peeked wolf.

I am SHC.

If you were a villager, a wolf would vote you to ensure that you were one of the wagons today, knowing that I would be very, very, very likely to vote the person who I think is a peeked wolf.

Nobody's voted you tho. Hmm.

despite what I said about his posts today being villagery, godkata dropping that post about the peeks and then disappearing gives me the heebies.

at keeping your options open

i guess im on level 1 then and everyone else in the WW player base is on level 2 and above.

that's basically what I thought you were suggesting

it's an interesting point, but the way must lynch voting dynamics vote is that the wagons have to be both the person who is voted first AND the person who voted them. So if a wolf comes out voting a villager it guarantees that villager will be a wagon, but it also guarantees the wolf will be too

if you're a wolf and you think one of the other villagers is going to push him anyway, you might not want to do it

this is all speculative, but I think it's bad to try to draw inferences from this. It also assumes wolves are even around or thought about it that way.

right, because my clear intent when I came into today and said he was villagery, after pushing him yesterday, was to keep my options open