let's start looking at the round 2 matches, but first, my outright positions:
gilding - lol
king - LOOOOOOOOOOL
jenkins - has shortened somewhat, as to be expected after pipe went down, but the play here is to hope he beats mvg, so keep it riding
wright - down to 35's. had a very good first round game and see no reason to cash out yet
lewis - dominated, down to 9's despite there being still a ton of chalk in his sector.
ROUND TWO DAY ONE MATCHES
| | Robert Thornton | Ronnie Baxter |
| Odds | 4-11 | 14-5 |
| 64 ranking | 12 | 26 |
| Previous round | 3-0 vs Gilding | 3-1 vs Gurney |
Thornton had arguably the hardest draw in the first round against Andrew Gilding, and he handled it really quite easily - Gilding had some shots at double in the first few legs but couldn't finish them. A good quality and testing game should set Thornton up nicely and give him a ton of confidence, showing good power scoring and 50% on doubles.
Baxter was tested in places, but Gurney's inconsistency from the preliminary game showed up in the first round as well, looking good in places but not being able to do it when it mattered, breaking to give himself chances to win sets but not finishing. Ronnie didn't look that convincing himself, but did enough to get over the line.
Thornton had the better performance, has the better seeding, and is the better player. We're now up to the best of 4 sets and it's not quite as short a format as previously, which will favour Robert. Props to both players for getting through what could be a potential banana skin, but I think that even if Ronnie plays his A game, he can't sustain it for long enough, and it's not that much better than Robert's B game, or even C game. Can't see him losing this one
2u Thornton 4/11
| | Terry Jenkins | Laurence Ryder |
| Odds | 1-5 | 9-2 |
| 64 ranking | 11 | 62 |
| Previous round | 3-1 vs Weber | 3-2 vs Pipe |
I was expecting a hugely close matchup between a classic in-form fan favourite, and a methodical but quality opponent, but LOL Pipe, and it's the second Aussie opponent in two games for Jenkins.
Will talk about Ryder first - he showed a lot of character in his opening match, after Pipe went two sets up I assumed that'd be that, but Ryder then managed to run off six straight legs to get the big upset and progress to the second round. That said, I think a ton of the result was Pipe cracking under pressure rather than Ryder dominating him, a match average of less than 84 isn't great, especially when you've run six straight legs. Someone more clinical will easily finish him off.
Jenkins looked very good, aside from a blip in the second set, averaging nearly a ton against someone who put him under no pressure whatsoever in the three sets that Jenkins won. Scoring more 140's than tons is a good sign that you're finding the trebles nicely, he was hitting the doubles solidly, and winning the deciding set in three straight 15 darters or less is high quality and will prove very tough for anyone.
Ryder, to his credit, took his chances against someone struggling a bit. Jenkins is an entirely different kettle of fish, and I can't see him fluffing his lines here.
2.5u Jenkins 1/5
| | Peter Wright | Ronny Huybrechts |
| Odds | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| 64 ranking | 5 | 34 |
| Previous round | 3-0 vs Price | 3-0 vs A Smith |
Peter Wright looks to reach a similar stage as last year, and kicked off with a straight sets win over Gerwyn Price, who gave the former finalist some things to think about, forcing a decider in two sets and averaging well into the 90's, but only managing the one break, which was countered by Wright, who held everywhere else to come through.
Ronny kicked off Saturday's action like a train, winning the first six legs in a row against Andy Smith to gain what ought to be an insurmountable lead. Smith tried a bit of a comeback, but after taking the first two legs in the third set, couldn't push home that advantage, allowing Huybrechts to come back, with Smith missing key doubles that could have extended the match.
Ronny did enough to put away Smith, but that was somewhat expected, and the errors he made will be punished a lot more easily by someone of Wright's quality. Wright's had the better first round test, and I'd expect him to cruise through this, although I'd think Ronny has the quality to grab a set or two
2u Wright 1/4
| | Dave Chisnall | Benito van de Pas |
| Odds | 2-7 | 7-2 |
| 64 ranking | 9 | 38 |
| Previous round | 3-0 vs de Vreede | 3-2 vs Nicholson |
van de Pas made a huge meal of beating Nicholson, coming through in a deciding set with a classy 109 kill to close out the deciding set. It really shouldn't have gone that far though, as Nicholson bottled chances to kill this a lot earlier.
Chisnall was comfortable in victory over de Vreede, although it's easy to do that when your opponent is averaging 75. An automatic win, although not without apparent equipment issues, making the final set closer than it needed to be.
I'm not backing Chisnall, if I'm going to pull the trigger on anyone it's van de Pas, and with the market having no rounding I should be picking a side really, but it just seems right - van de Pas can show up if he can tighten up his consistency, but I can't see him doing it against someone of Chisnall's quality and experience enough to warrant punting on him.
| | Michael van Gerwen | Sascha Stein |
| Odds | 1-41 | 33-1 |
| 64 ranking | 1 | 62 |
| Previous round | 3-1 vs Cullen | 3-1 vs Kellett |
van Gerwen wins but lol that price
| | Gary Anderson | Jelle Klaasen |
| Odds | 2-9 | 17-4 |
| 64 ranking | 3 | 27 |
| Previous round | 3-1 vs Kirchner | 3-1 vs Kist |
Klaasen edged a close one against fellow Dutchman Kist, taking the first two sets in deciders before letting Kist sweep him in the third, a favour he returned in the fourth to win the match. It looks like he just had enough of an edge in scoring to compensate for slightly inferior finishing.
Anderson, er, well, I'm going to put it down to Kirchner's incredibly deliberate playstyle putting him completely out of rhythm. Kirchner played well, and indeed missed some chances that could have made this even more interesting, but Anderson averaging 86 and checking out less than 25% just seem like huge outliers, and something he'll rectify at this stage.
I kind of want to bet Jelle, but don't want to bet against Anderson. I just think that a more natural speed of play will eliminate the garbage stats and make a huge difference. Will leave this one alone.
I pick worse than Bristow though.
