DAY FOUR AFTERNOON MATCHES
| Paul Nicholson | Benito van de Pas |
Qualified by | #25 in world rankings | #3 in Pro Tour |
64 ranking | 30 | 40 |
Odds | 10-11 | 11-10 |
Last Year | Last 32, 0-4 vs Painter | Debut (last 32 of BDO, 0-3 vs Dekker) |
Majors | Last 16 Matchplay, last 32 UK Open | Last 32 Players, Euro, last 64 UK Open |
Euro Tour | 1 x last 16, 2 x last 32 | 2 x last 16, 1 x last 32, 1 x last 48 |
Pro Tour | 1 x QF, 1 x last 16, 13 x last 32, 5 x last 64 | 1 x SF, 3 x QF, 3 x last 16, 4 x last 32, 5 x last 64 |
Let's ignite the fury of all Aussies by betting against everyone's favourite Newcastle native and shoving all the cash on van de Pas.
My only real cause to stop is that the likes of Mason and Warriner, almost as bad as Bristow at tipping, were saying he was a good outsider when looking at the odds for the Euros pre-tournament. Obviously he then loses to Peter Wright in the first round, but not without good chances. He's made it through the Pro Tour rankings, ahead of the likes of Kist and Huybrechts, with some time to spare - his best tour result came quite some time ago, beating King, Mansell, Michael Smith and Painter, not a bad run. Stick that on top of half a dozen last 16+ tour results and qualifying for several of the European events, and it was enough to get him into the Players Championship, albeit running into Peter Wright.
That is more than Paul Nicholson did. He snuck into the Matchplay (as the 31st of 32 qualifiers) and got a win, and made it to the money of the UK Open, but other than that, it's been an annus horribilis. Look at all those last 32's on the tour - 500 quid a time isn't going to cut the mustard.
Nicholson needs to do something here if he harbours ambitions of staying in the top 32 for much longer, and he's facing a young in-form Dutchman who will give zero ****s - I'm not sure who Nicholson's ideal opponent would be, but van de Pas is probably on a long list of someone he'll mentally crack to. I like the guy, but he's probably got as much chance of winning this as his idol CM Punk has of having a successful UFC career
1u van de Pas 11/10
| Mark Webster | Ron Meulenkamp |
Qualified by | #32 in world rankings (#31 seed) | #2 in European Tour rankings |
64 ranking | 33 | 60 |
Odds | 4-11 | 5-2 |
Last Year | QF, 3-5 vs van Gerwen | Debut (last 32 of BDO, 2-3 vs Robson) |
Majors | Last 16 UK Open | None |
Euro Tour | 3 x last 48 | 2 x last 48 |
Pro Tour | 2 x QF, 6 x last 16, 5 x last 32, 3 x last 64 | 1 x QF, 1 x last 16, 2 x last 32, 9 x last 64 |
Oh god, this one is probably going to be brutal.
Webster's not been playing good enough to make majors. He's not been playing good enough to make even half the European events, and when he did, he lost first round each time. That world title probably seems a hell of a lot longer than 7 years ago, yet when we were all questioning him last year, he went on a run and gave van Gerwen a decent match. That's who he went out to in the UK Open, his only decent performance of the season, although a first round win against Mark Walsh is to be expected, and he nearly ****ed it up against pub qualifier Paul Hogan.
Ron Meulenkamp is one of the invading Dutch army who moved over last winter, and hasn't done a great deal. He made a couple of euro events but went out first round both times, and needed a quarter final run in the last tour event to get here, taking down Ward, West, Thornton and Ross Smith. On his side is that he'll have a lot of match practice - he's been playing a lot of the challenger tour events, and did win one, but that's an entirely different level to what'll be expected here.
I've put Meulenkamp in my bracket, but that's more a throwaway 1 pointer, as either gets murdered by Taylor. This could easily be the worst match of the first round. The line is probably about right - something like 4/9 - 2/1 might be closer, but this is the bathroom break game of the day
| Dean Winstanley | Wayne Jones |
Qualified by | #27 in world rankings (#26 seed) | #7 in Pro Tour |
64 ranking | 25 | 35 |
Odds | 2-5 | 12-5 |
Last Year | Last 64, 1-3 vs Burnett | Last 64, 2-3 vs McDine |
Majors | QF Players, last 16 UK Open, Grand Prix, last 32 Euro, Matchplay | Last 32 Matchplay, last 96 UK Open |
Euro Tour | 1 x SF, 1 x last 16, 3 x last 32, 2 x last 48 | 1 x last 16, 2 x last 48 |
Pro Tour | 1 x RU, 1 x SF, 5 x QF, 3 x last 16, 8 x last 32, 3 x last 64 | 4 x last 16, 7 x last 32, 8 x last 64 |
GET PAID GET PAID GET PAID
Winstanley's starting to get at the stage where he's comfortable in the PDC and on the PDC stage - two years out from a magical nine darter on the Ally Pally stage, he's picking up wins in the majors and solidifying his place in the top 32. Very consistent on the tour, he's one of the more feared opponents and somewhat underrated.
Wayne Jones is one of those players that really ought to go away - he's about 3 years behind someone like Alan Tabern's career path. Like Nicholson, he had enough junk from the latter end of last year to make the Matchplay, although he lost 10-3 to Andy Hamilton, who's complete AIDS, that says more about Jones imo. He hasn't even made a single quarter final on the tour this year, most people are able to do that by accident.
This is a good bet on Winstanley, I really don't see how he loses this one at all. Jones has nothing left in the tank and Winstanley's still pretty young (despite looking at him, he's my age apparently). This game should be the cornerstone of all accumulators
1.5u Winstanley 2/5
| Kevin Painter | Boris Koltsov/Hakuri Murimatsu |
Qualified by | #20 in world rankings | Russian qualifier/Japanese qualifier |
64 ranking | 24 | 133 |
Odds | 1-4 | 4-1 |
Last Year | Last 16, 0-4 vs Whitlock | Debut/DNQ |
Majors | QF Grand Prix, UK Open, last 32 Players, Matchplay | None |
Euro Tour | 1 x SF, 1 x last 16, 3 x last 32, 1 x last 48 | None |
Pro Tour | 2 x QF, 2 x last 16, 8 x last 32, 6 x last 64 | None |
Right now, Kevin Painter's probably still wondering how he didn't kill off Taylor in that epic final that nobody remembers after the Barney final a few years later, especially as it wasn't even as good as the Part final the year before. He did finally win a major at some point, and is keeping relevant with a couple of major quarter finals, getting a free win over Hamilton and then just edging out Lewis in the Grand Prix, and getting wins he ought to do in the UK Open. His floor form could be better - only getting past the last 32 4 times is not good, but a semi final in Europe, beating Keegan Brown, Beaton, Kim Huybrechts and Caven compensates slightly.
I know nothing about the Russian darts scene, and I wouldn't be surprised if Koltsov suddenly ends up with visa issues and has to withdraw or some similar garbage, it's happened before and will happen again. Murimatsu's a veteran of the world stage, him being the Japanese guy that doesn't have an easy to sing along name to Pig Bag. He's previously gone three and out to Taylor, Whitlock and Baxter.
I think there's probably slight value on Painter, but knowing little about the Russian guy, who for all we know could be as competent as someone like Suljovic, I'm going to avoid lumping on Painter. He's probably safe to shove in an acca, but at 1-4 I don't want to be making any single bets as the value isn't there.