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NFL Week 9 Discussion Thread (Advanced Cardio Tips ITT) NFL Week 9 Discussion Thread (Advanced Cardio Tips ITT)

11-04-2010 , 12:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
I'll try it this way: hindsight bias and recent results don't apply in this case b/c Moss was the same guy in 4 games in Minn as he was in 4 games in NE. he didn't become a worse player in Minn. that's why it's amazing 4 weeks earlier he is worth a 3rd rounder to someone and now is worth nothing to 30 teams.
Holy **** there are like 14 logical fallacies in this post.
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11-04-2010 , 12:42 AM
KB4Z,
He cannot get traded now because it is past the trade deadline, you don't know what the Titans value him at. His value is currently considerably lower to the outside world because another team gave him the boot. Other teams might not have use for him as a one year gamble because they aren't championship contenders.

Assuming his contract has some surplus Moss for 12 games >>>> Moss for 8 games.

Edit: And please try to rectify BB double teaming Moss every play with BB correctly identifying Moss as a lemon. I really would like to see the mental gymanistics you need to pull of to get this to work.
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11-04-2010 , 12:46 AM
I know what 30 teams value him at. 30 teams made the call today that paying Moss $3m for the rest of the year was worth less than the last guy on their roster.

The Titans clearly value him more than some guy they will cut, but yeah I don't know how much
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11-04-2010 , 12:46 AM
That's right. Even if TENN were the only team interested in trading for him at this point it doesn't mean they would have only offered like a 7th rounder. They wouldn't know that they were the only team bidding on him. They may have offered like a 4th rounder or something to get him for 8 games. Maybe less. But 8 games is worth much less than 12.
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11-04-2010 , 12:47 AM
Also 8 games is worth a lot less in football because of the learning curve associated with joining new teams.
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11-04-2010 , 12:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
I know what 30 teams value him at. 30 teams made the call today that paying Moss $3m for the rest of the year was worth less than the last guy on their roster.

The Titans clearly value him more than some guy they will cut, but yeah I don't know how much
You realize only 1 team needs to value him right? It's not at all far-fetched for 1 out of 32 to unwittingly pay a "premium" for something when they really have no idea what the other teams value him at.
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11-04-2010 , 12:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by prohornblower
You realize only 1 team needs to value him right? It's not at all far-fetched for 1 out of 32 to unwittingly pay a "premium" for something when they really have no idea what the other teams value him at.
and that team is probably a sucker. what are the odds a team paying a 4th round pick or w/e is more accurate than 30 teams willing to pay nothing? not good.
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11-04-2010 , 12:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
and that team is probably a sucker. what are the odds a team paying a 4th round pick or w/e is more accurate than 30 teams willing to pay nothing? not good.
Jesus you fail so hard at basic economics or basic understanding of the NFL.

EDIT: You realize the Pats didn't have to trade Moss right? If another team values him they have to give a strong enough offer to make it worthwhile for BB to lose a pretty large utility like Randy Moss.
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11-04-2010 , 03:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iggymcfly
1. Colts 5-2 (2)
2. Chargers 3-5 (4)
3. Ravens 5-2 (6)
4. Steelers 5-2 (1)
5. Patriots 6-1 (7)
6. Titans 5-3 (5)
7. Jets 5-2 (3)
8. Packers 5-3 (9)
9. Falcons 5-2 (8)
10. Giants 5-2 (10)
11. Eagles 4-3 (11)
12. Dolphins 4-3 (14)
13. Saints 5-3 (17)
14. Vikings 2-5 (13)
15. Texans 4-3 (15)
16. Chiefs 5-2 (16)
17. Raiders 4-4 (24)
18. Lions 2-5 (25)
19. Bears 4-3 (19)
20. Redskins 4-4 (12)
21. Bengals 2-5 (20)
22. Browns 2-5 (21)
23. 49ers 2-6 (22)
24. Seahawks 4-3 (18)
25. Jaguars 4-4 (30)
26. Rams 4-4 (26)
27. Cowboys 1-6 (23)
28. Buccaneers 5-2 (27)
29. Broncos 2-6 (28)
30. Cardinals 3-4 (29)
31. Bills 0-7 (31)
32. Panthers 1-6 (32)
I like these, but I'm curious what your approach is. The Giants are #3 in total offensive and #2 in total defense. 10 seems kind of low considering the Jets have had awful passing, the Falcons awful pass defense, etc.
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11-04-2010 , 03:17 AM
Someone on another site called my power rankings an "abortion". They probably are, but I stand by my mangled corpse of a fetus nonetheless.

1. Giants
2. Steelers
3. Titans
4. Colts
5. Chargers
6. Packers
7. Patriots
8. Chiefs
9. Dolphins
10. Texans
11. Eagles
12. Jets
13. Ravens
14. Bears
15. Saints
16. Falcons
17. Redskins
18. Raiders
19. Vikings
20. Cowboys
21. Bengals
22. Browns
23. Broncos
24. Buccaneers
25. Jaguars
26. Lions
27. 49ers
28. Bills
29. Panthers
30. Rams
31. Seahawks
32. Cardinals
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11-04-2010 , 03:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
30 teams passed on claiming him today. 30.
including the pats, who still defended him as though he were a legitimate threat offensively. so what does that say
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11-04-2010 , 03:27 AM
Well let's see...

You have the Giants way too high. Titans a bit too high. Chargers way too high. Pats too low. Texans too high. Jets too low. Ravens too low. Bears too high. Falcons too low. Cowboys too high. Bucs way too low. I think Jags kinda low but whatever a lot of people think they are that bad. Beyond that it doesn't really matter but the Rams are way too low.

So an abortion is probably putting it kindly.
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11-04-2010 , 06:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
that's why it's amazing 4 weeks earlier he is worth a 3rd rounder to someone and now is worth nothing to 30 teams.
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11-04-2010 , 06:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheeljks
including the pats, who still defended him as though he were a legitimate threat offensively. so what does that say
that "is this player a legitimate offensive threat" is not the only criterion nfl gms use to decide whether they want a player on their team
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11-04-2010 , 09:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pudge714
Edit: And please try to rectify BB double teaming Moss every play with BB correctly identifying Moss as a lemon. I really would like to see the mental gymanistics you need to pull of to get this to work.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheeljks
including the pats, who still defended him as though he were a legitimate threat offensively. so what does that say
Moss can be a legitimate threat (albeit one in decline) worth paying a lot of attention to, and it would still make sense to trade him if that offensive value is outweighed by:

- the money you need to pay him (that otherwise will be spent on other players)
- if he is such a PITA off the field/in locker room that removing his presence is a positive
- the value of whatever you get in return (3rd round pick)

it's not a black/white binary issue here, there are lots of inputs. it's not as simple as "Moss is still a threat, gotta keep him!"
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11-04-2010 , 09:18 AM
Ya, but we are also in a market where guys like Deion Branch and Marshawn Lynch are going for 4th rounders and Moss will still likely yield a compensation pick.
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11-04-2010 , 09:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
30 teams passed on claiming him today. 30.
Yeah they passed on him after yet another "LOL Randy Moss is an idiot" moment. What is your point?
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11-04-2010 , 09:24 AM
Need a pick for an elimination pool... can pick anyone....debating between cardinals browns and cowboys...thoughts?
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11-04-2010 , 09:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheeljks
including the pats, who still defended him as though he were a legitimate threat offensively. so what does that say
Even if the Pats wanted him back they never would have claimed him. All they had to do was let him clear, and it stands to reason based on how Moss carried on abour missing the team that they could have re-signed him and let the Vikings carry the majority of his salary.
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11-04-2010 , 09:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by foal
Someone on another site called my power rankings an "abortion". They probably are, but I stand by my mangled corpse of a fetus nonetheless.

1. Giants
2. Steelers
3. Titans
4. Colts
5. Chargers
6. Packers
7. Patriots
8. Chiefs
9. Dolphins
10. Texans
11. Eagles
12. Jets
13. Ravens
14. Bears
15. Saints
16. Falcons
17. Redskins
18. Raiders
19. Vikings
20. Cowboys
21. Bengals
22. Browns
23. Broncos
24. Buccaneers
25. Jaguars
26. Lions
27. 49ers
28. Bills
29. Panthers
30. Rams
31. Seahawks
32. Cardinals
Quote:
Originally Posted by prohornblower
Well let's see...

You have the Giants way too high. Titans a bit too high. Chargers way too high. Pats too low. Texans too high. Jets too low. Ravens too low. Bears too high. Falcons too low. Cowboys too high. Bucs way too low. I think Jags kinda low but whatever a lot of people think they are that bad. Beyond that it doesn't really matter but the Rams are way too low.

So an abortion is probably putting it kindly.
Yep, this sums it up.
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11-04-2010 , 09:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pudge714
Ya, but we are also in a market where guys like Deion Branch and Marshawn Lynch are going for 4th rounders and Moss will still likely yield a compensation pick.
but you aren't looking at the whole picture

- Branch is being paid less this year
- is signed for 1 more year, at only $2.2m
- doesn't hold bizarre press conferences and is considered to be a better "presence"

if you don't count all of this stuff, then yeah it looks lol that Moss went for a 3rd rounder and Branch a 4th rounder. but that stuff does count
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11-04-2010 , 09:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
Moss can be a legitimate threat (albeit one in decline) worth paying a lot of attention to, and it would still make sense to trade him if that offensive value is outweighed by:

- the money you need to pay him (that otherwise will be spent on other players)
- if he is such a PITA off the field/in locker room that removing his presence is a positive
- the value of whatever you get in return (3rd round pick)

it's not a black/white binary issue here, there are lots of inputs. it's not as simple as "Moss is still a threat, gotta keep him!"
That's cool. It's also not as simple as "Since they didn't claim him, they didn't want him!"
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11-04-2010 , 09:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmill
That's cool. It's also not as simple as "Since they didn't claim him, they didn't want him!"
I said teams decided that cutting the last guy on the roster wasn't worth Moss. meaning, his on field play, his contract, his problems, his having to learn the playbook, his lunch preferences, everything. that's "him". you can't have some without the other.

edit: well, perhaps some teams gambled that no one would claim him and the money would be less, which changes the equation
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11-04-2010 , 09:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pudge714
Ya, but we are also in a market where guys like Deion Branch and Marshawn Lynch are going for 4th rounders and Moss will still likely yield a compensation pick.
Ya I don't think a 3rd round pick is great value for Moss if just considering his talent. But he does carry baggage and it's tougher to get fair value mid season considering the player has to learn a new playbook, timing issues, etc.

The trade was basically a player dump for NE and not because Moss has degraded so much. (As you point out - why would they double him all day if he's washed up?)

The reason they dumped him was they wanted to change the offense and use him more as a decoy. The problem is Moss isn't happy unless he has a bunch of balls thrown to him every game -- and he either stops trying, starts causing trouble in other ways, or both.

Something happened after the NE/Miami game when Moss only got 1 or 2 passes thrown in his direction that made BB see the writing on the wall.

It's also interesting his little blow up in Minny happened after a game where he was only targeted a handful of times. (1 or 2...?) I don't think it's a coincidence.

Everyone says, "look even if you don't throw to him he has value. Look what he did for Harvin," etc. The problem is Moss will not accept that role. He's talking out both sides of his mouth when he says he only wants to win.

He would still be in NE if was was willing to run his routes hard and stay mentally engaged while only seeing 2 to 4 balls thrown his way every game. I'm pretty sure if he was willing to run over the middle once-in-a-while Brady would even blow him to keep him on the Pats.
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11-04-2010 , 09:49 AM
Dissapointed the Fins didn't claim him. We get Moss and you get single coverage on Marshall and Bess every play. Would've been pretty damn sweet.
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