Bo knows baseball. Deion knows football.

I'd be laughing at that UT WR if I didn't have him on a receiving prop...

Always top notch discussion on these lol 2+2 forums

The game was five minutes in

turrible snap

a future Steeler

Adventures in Officiating

to be continued ...

.

Anybody know what brand those shades Prime is wearing?

Touchdown horny toads!

If Hunter ever gets hurt ...

Kid can play!

So it's either a TD or first and goal let's speed this up ref

Adventures in Officiating

Chapter 3

Few things are more laughable than a college athlete having "SR" appended to his name on his jersey. Don't want people to think your 2 y/o is out there playing!

Okay I'm loaded up on Georgia under 11.5 wins for the regular season, 4 units so far. It's like I'm free rolling into December. Can't blow for 3 months, can only win. LOL. I'm just predicting dynasty crumble and having to go undefeated on the other side sure doesn't seem like value where I'm sitting. And another thing, this outfit they are playing today is sneaky good. Don't be counting your chickens. Free roll week one: 4 units. Sweet.

vegas modeling of uncertainty is so bad

Colorado is literally a brand new team from scratch with a bunch of 4* transfers at skill positions and then mostly 3* on the lines. TCU also basically replaced their entire team. Who the **** knows how good either of these teams is? They add it all up and guess that TCU should be -20.5, so sure maybe that's the median outcome, I won't argue that. But the cone of outcomes is so wide, maybe TCU wins by 50, maybe Colorado is actually the better team, who knows?

Then, the game kicks off, you get to watch a few drives, and it seems clear that Colorado is a lot better than you thought. Colorado goes up 14-7 and looks fantastic, and the line is still... Colorado +285, because their model anchors off of the pregame expectation that CU is 20.5 points worse. There's no variable that says how aggressively you should update your priors based on what's happening in the game and how good your initial priors were.

10th game of the season, sure, you should be really slow to change your expectation because you have a ton of data. But here, your expectation was a wild guess anyway, you should update really quickly, but they don't have that modeled. Insane value imo

CFB is easier to beat than a 1/3 game

I guess it really ain't bragging if you can do it.

lol they are still +106 jesus ***** christ

Sounds like you are complaining. If it is that big of an edge, unload your balance on it already.

Almost every time I thought Vegas was stupid, they have proven me wrong. YMMV

Keep it under 60 and maybe try to score?

I have already maxed the bet out.

Almost every time I thought Vegas was this stupid, they have proven me right.


Would bet a pretty substantial portion of my net worth that I am right here



To be clear, being right does not mean I am sure Colorado will win. My $ is in on something like an average of +600, so even if they lose 70% of the time, I got it in super good. Being right means that the live line is calculating the odds by continuing to anchor to the pregame assumption that TCU is 20.5 points better than Colorado, and I think that is very obviously not true. Would wager that next week's lines imply that TCU is < 14 points better than Colorado, maybe even closer to 0 than to 14. Which would make the bets I've made here incredibly +EV.

The live line doesn't really update the pregame assumption as the game goes on, which is a totally reasonable thing to do in week 10 when you have tons of data, but this pregame line was arguably the least confident pregame projection in the history of college football. Continuing to anchor to that line when the play on the field looks very different is a gigantic error

LOLOLOLOLOLOL

It makes me giggle every time I hear Brent Venables name. Venables sounds like a vegan dog food brand for your woke puppy dog.

Hunter seems good

Nice pick!

Jesus Christ, kid's already played 80 plays and 2 plays ago just sprinted down the RB from the opposite side of the field to save a TD, doesn't take a breather even after all of that, and then the INT.