UNC Lost their 4th game last year to Notre Dame

Anybody guess the only team in top 10 in offense and defense? Also, 1-6 ats.

Dawgs

Ahhh you're correct. Whatever. Drake is the truth. This offense is almost unstoppable with all the players playing now eligible/not injured. Bring on anybody is where I'm at with this team by now. UGA fans I'm friends with have all said they wouldn't any part of UNC in the CFP.

Bowers ankle surgery, if he misses UF game UGA could be in trouble

He's definitely going to miss that one. I think that already dramatically shifted the line from Georgia -23.5 to Georgia -20.5? With another injury to a key Georgia starter, Florida might get it below +20.

23.5 on a neutral field seems crazy thats like 8-9 points higher than Sagarin/FPI spread. ok maybe not against UF but the meat of their schedule is in the next 4 games very good chance they drop at least one of UF/Mizzou/Ole Miss/Tennessee if he doesn't return and not insignificant chance of dropping more than one of those games.

I haven't watched UNC in at least twenty years but they will choke because they aren't that good.

NC over ALABAMA is an insta shove. Doesn't matter what the pot is.

He's supposed to have TightRope surgery today. 4-6 weeks is the usual timeline for that. Priority #1 for him is obviously to avoid jeopardizing his draft stock.

Does anyone see a line for Georgia Florida? I thought it would be -12 before the injury announced. Is it really -20?

Yea Fla +20 feels pretty lockish.

Yeah Fanduel and a couple others have it -20.5 Off now but last listed on Bovada and Betonline was -21.5 (no idea when that was).

https://unabated.com/cfb/odds


I've got it closer to 10 but will probably stay away due to the whole "the one time they were supposed to be challenged they destroyed the other team such that there coach was pleading for Kentucky boosters to start getting serious about paying for players." element.

Ohhh but you’re wrong. This team isn’t even close to their ceiling. Defense keeps getting better and the offense has put up 31+ for 6 straight games without all of their toys for a top NFL draft pick to sling it to. UNC is the real deal this year.

you've helped me see the light this week gmc

this cfb season is wide open. there are no world beaters out there

we have the best player on the field every time the ball is kicked off. if things fall just a bit our way, we'll find ourselves in the CFP playing for all the marbles

The stars are certainly aligning if they just take care of business. And every week we have Drake and the other team doesn’t.

Y'all underestimate the gap between you and real programs from minor southern states like Auburn and Clemson.

Yeah ok. Let's see a fanbase here or anywhere say THIS UNC team in the CFP is a cartwheel dream matchup.

I have them at 18% to win out and 46% to finish with 1 loss (this is with Leonard out for Duke, I think he might be back by then), so that's 64% to make it to the title game with a win and you're probably in situation.

FSU's vegas ratings are much lower than people think, I actually have them as the 10th-11th best team, with the caveat that the gap between 1 and 10 is much smaller this year than I can ever recall seeing.

So, let's give UNC a 40% chance in the title game conditional on making it, (remember, some slim chance they wind up playing Louisville or something), so that's a really nice ~25% chance to make the playoffs (more on that in a sec)

The current version of UNC is roughly a ~9-10 point dog to the top couple teams. I think conditional on them actually making the playoffs, that's probably 8 (although this year, wouldn't be crazy if it went the other way, and some of the contenders (Michigan, Georgia) actually separate themselves more once they start playing tough games).

So that's roughly 26% to win each game in the playoffs, which puts us somewhere in the 60-1 range, which is roughly what the books have them at.


Tez certainly helps their skill talent, but watching these guys against Miami I sort of feel like they just might not have the talent in the trenches to deal with some of the elite teams of years past, but this year I think they probably can? On offense, elite skill can overcome a spotty o-line. On defense, you can get exposed, but it's not like there are ground-based juggernauts of years past?

UGA has run for a measly 5.07 ypc against Tennessee Martin, Ball State, USCe, UAB, Auburn, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Washington, Texas, Oklahoma and Ohio State are all pass heavy teams. Really only Michigan might be able to force it down their throats, but their ground game has been even more uninspiring than UGA's this year so idk.

I had to check their schedule to see if they play Old Dominion. They don’t so they have a decent chance here.

I see roughly a 36% chance that everything works out perfectly, with four conferences producing a 0 or 1 loss champion

15% chance of the disaster scenario (5 conferences)

49% chance of 3 or fewer, in which case the pecking order is probably:

12-1 UGA non champ (would help if they lost to 11-2 Bama champ. If they lose to 12-1 Bama champ, then some chance they get left out)
12-1 B1G non champ (losing to Iowa would be rough, but they would own 2 wins over osu/mich/psu. Probably best if it's OSU, given their additional ND win)
12-1 Washington non champ
11-2 Texas champ? Am I crazy to think that if 10-2 Texas beats 12-0 Oklahoma in the B12 title game, Texas might get the nod? They'd avenge their earlier loss, have the conf title, and have the win over Bama to counteract the extra loss.
12-1 OU non champ
12-2 Clemson champ? They'd close the season out with 9 consecutive wins, wins over ND, UNC and FSU (avenges earlier loss)
12-1 FSU non champ
12-1 UNC non champ


Very unsure, haven't put much thought into this part

UNC will lose to at least two of GT, Clemson and NC state

You could probably get excellent odds on that if you care to bet it.

I agree that they've looked to be about 10th best so far, but I think they have a much higher ceiling than your average 10th place team.

I think Travis has been letting the Heisman hype get to his head a bit. Last year he was making so many plays with his feet, keeping plays alive, scrambling, etc. and this year it seems like he wants to prove he can be a pocket passer, but that's really not his game. QB rating is down and rushing yards are way down. If he can figure it out, then FSU's offense is top 5.

And the defense has been pretty rubbish so far. Currently 41st in opp. YPP. That's pathetic for the amount of talent they have. Verse at DE is the top defensive player on most draft boards and the rest of the DL could be drafted. Cypress was an all-ACC CB last year and a couple LBs should be drafted. Those guys should be top 15, top 20 at worse and I think a top 5 O coupled with a top 20 D at least gives you a shot in the playoffs.

Yeah ok bro. If this team gets punked by GT and NCST again then this was all a pipe dream. They are a much different team vs last season. Both losses to both teams last season were boneheaded (dropped TD vs GT, and 2 missed FGs vs NCST) and in no way bc the other team was better. The whole atrocious secondary was replaced, and our d-line has players back and transfers that weren't on the team last year who are ballin out so far. Drake also went from about +550 to win the Heisman to suddenly playing like he was nothing more than a 6th round pick during that span. Assuming they take care of those games, and pull it out vs Clemson it's game on from there vs FSU and the CFP.

Any other year then yeah I would say laugh away at UNC fans thinking their team has a chance. This year...............NO SIR. They're the real deal.

Feeding the troll...