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06-26-2012 , 02:02 PM

#1301

digables

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Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 15,756

The more I think about it, from a purely value standpoint, lol @ Houston in this trade

Kahn just owned Morey iyam

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06-26-2012 , 02:03 PM

#1302

digables

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Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDean1

lolkahn

they're shipping an decently valuable asset for a 1 year rental of an OK rotation player- what's the point?

Budinger is valuable, 18th pick is not

btw there's obviously more to this than the straight value offering, but some of you thought this was bad from that perspective, which is all i'm addressing

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06-26-2012 , 02:05 PM

#1303

Victor

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Quote:

Originally Posted by digables

Falling in love with the idea 18th overall picks can be high impact players and giving away Chase Budingers in the process is a good way to get more lotto picks in the upcoming years. So there's that

ya bc chase budinger types are soooo hard to find

Quote

06-26-2012 , 02:06 PM

#1304

digables

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they kind of are

consistently positive NBA players are hard to find, especially a guy who had the career of a late lotto pick scooped from the second round

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06-26-2012 , 02:11 PM

#1305

Victor

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heres the thing, i dont think 18th pick will on average be better than budinger. just that 18th pick has an infinite better chance to be moar worthwhile.

Quote:

especially a guy who had the career of a late lotto pick scooped from the second round

i dont understand your wording here. it seems you are saying that where budinger was drafted matters. it doesnt afaict.

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06-26-2012 , 02:11 PM

#1306

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 68,987

I like the deal much better in this draft than I would in almost any other year

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06-26-2012 , 02:11 PM

#1307

digables

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then i think you're underrating what budinger brings to a team that thinks it can be good

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06-26-2012 , 02:12 PM

#1308

digables

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Quote:

Originally Posted by nath

I like the deal much better in this draft than I would in almost any other year

This year's 18th pick is a sizable dog to be better than Chase Budinger

Quote

06-26-2012 , 02:13 PM

#1309

JoltinJake

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 5,236

who cares where budinger was initially drafted? sunk cost arguments itt and in the forum lately.

if budinger's win share EV is only slightly better than the win share EV of the draft pick, i would think the pick has to be the better asset overall due to the chance it becomes a high win share player, which are much more valuable due to scarcity.

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06-26-2012 , 02:15 PM

#1310

Victor

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Jake (The Snake)

well put

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06-26-2012 , 02:17 PM

#1311

digables

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Jake (The Snake)

lol @ well put

Slightly better? Budinger on track to have like 13-14 win shares through his first four years. That's not "slightly better" than the projected 8 of an 18th pick (if you read any of this)

Quote

06-26-2012 , 02:18 PM

#1312

digables

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Chase Budinger is better than the group of passable rotation wings he's likely being grouped in with

And he's improving

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06-26-2012 , 02:20 PM

#1313

digables

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people who make things up and don't know basketball in the forum lately

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06-26-2012 , 02:21 PM

#1314

digables

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At his pace Budinger will have 13.1 win shares after four seasons

Here's the win share projection table as based on the history of NBA draft picks through their first 4 years

1 | 26.5 |
| 2 | 22.1 |
| 3 | 19.6 |
| 4 | 17.8 |
| 5 | 16.4 |
| 6 | 15.2 |
| 7 | 14.2 |
| 8 | 13.4 |
| 9 | 12.7 |
| 10 | 12.0 |
| 11 | 11.4 |
| 12 | 10.8 |
| 13 | 10.3 |
| 14 | 9.9 |
| 15 | 9.4 |
| 16 | 9.0 |
| 17 | 8.7 |
| 18 | 8.3

Quote

06-26-2012 , 02:23 PM

#1315

ZBTHorton

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Isn't Houston almost definitely going to trade the pick?

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06-26-2012 , 02:24 PM

#1316

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 68,987

hmm, i didn't realize Budinger was that good, i figured he was just part of the Faceless Men wing rotation with Lee and Parsons

that said, most people expect the 18 pick to be part of another move so i'm not ready to judge the deal yet.

edit: actually Parsons and Lee have both put up similar WS numbers for their careers so maybe he is somewhat replaceable

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06-26-2012 , 02:24 PM

#1317

All-inMcLovin

Wholesome Mod

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 52,174

Since Morey missed out on Linsanity, I really think he is going to create some pre-July 4th type fireworks.

Dude want's a player on his team real bad. I'm calling Dwight to Houston.

Speaking of bad, I'd feel real bad for Rondo if he landed in the island of misfit basketball players we know as the Sacramento Kings.

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06-26-2012 , 02:24 PM

#1318

digables

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They should trade the pick for Chase Budinger, top 100 NBA player

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06-26-2012 , 02:26 PM

#1319

digables

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Quote:

Originally Posted by nath

Oh I don't care about all the context really. He's coming off contract soon and there's other things in play. I was just addressing those who immediately thought "no way budinger is worth an 18th pick!"

Budinger is a 6'7" wing with long arms and a very good athlete who scores somewhat efficiently and can D up most non elite wings

I think he's an awesome piece for a team like Minnesota who is giving real minutes to Wesley Johnson. (who some might think is in the realm of Budinger, but I don't think is even close)

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06-26-2012 , 02:31 PM

#1320

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 68,987

that reminds me, one of my favorite random stats from last year: Houston started the year with four top-10 2009 picks on their roster. they ended the year with 0.

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06-26-2012 , 02:36 PM

#1321

digables

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Ty Lawson was an 18th pick though

lol GMs letting him fall in that PG heavy class was ridiculous

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06-26-2012 , 02:37 PM

#1322

CrunchyBlack

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Quote:

Originally Posted by digables

In case you don't want to read, the 18th pick is expected to produce about 8 win shares over his first four seasons.

Budinger was worth 3 win shares last season and 9.6 through his first 3 years as an NBA player

Quote:

Originally Posted by digables

I'd snap take Budinger for the 24th pick.

I don't really like Houston's side on this at all

you have to give cbud a contract that will be > the 18th pick scale, + lack of upside. I don't think its a particularly lopsided trade either way but like Houstons side a little more

Quote

06-26-2012 , 02:41 PM

#1323

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 68,987

Quote:

Originally Posted by digables

Ty Lawson was an 18th pick though

lol GMs letting him fall in that PG heavy class was ridiculous

i even remember b-ref's blog (i think) pointing him out as a guy who was pretty much a guaranteed success (mostly because of his insane AST/TO ratio at UNC)

lol GMs