Thank you for this.

to bad rick helling isnt around anymore
that boy could pile up wins
i remember as a yankee fan being petrified of him when they faced him in the playoffs as he was a 20 game winner

If you're trying to field a 110 win median team, you're gonna have a number 4 starter playing swingman, and you're 4th OF is gonna end up being a starter for half the teams in the league.

That said, Kennedy/Hughes took big steps backward last year (Not Delmon Young: I always sucked, I'm continuing to suck. But "I was good, now I suck" avenues have been taken by both), so I'm not really in disgust over their choice. They could have ended up with Tim Lincecum or Joba or Homer Bailer... Instead they have AAA player of the decade and Hughes who is... Hughes.

The Royals have once again displayed their infinite wisdom by signing Kyle Farnsworth to a 2 year, 9.25 million deal. Farnsworth, who has been a below average and un-durable relief pitcher for 3 consecutive seasons, is clearly worse than Ramon Ramirez, whom the Royals traded to the Red Sox earlier this offseason for the honor of taking on Coco Crisp's salary for 2009. Ramirez will make about 500k next year. When asked to comment on his signing with the Royals, Farnsworth, who is a well known douche bag, said: "Whoa."

Also, Kerry Wood's 2 year, 20.5 mil deal, with a vesting option for 11 mil$ (if he finishes 55 or more games in either season, it kicks in) with the Indians is complete. Wood has 66 1/3 ip last season, his highest total since 2004 and more than he had in 2007 and 2006 combined. Rejoice, Indians fans, your GM bought high when even the Cubs refused to do so.

Wood and Farnsworth are both still expected to make drunken fools of themselves at a bar in Chicago sometime in 2009.

The Royals also signed Horacio Ramirez to a 1 yr, 1.8 mil $ deal. Ramirez is expected to help the Royals about as much as one of the over sized balls that cost $1 in toy department. Royals General Manager Dayton Moore had previously offered a 1 year, 1.8 million dollar deal to an over sized ball, but the ball did not respond.

the farnsworth deal is fjsdkgdssdgknsdlgs

at least kerry wood was one of the best relievers in the game last year

that being said WHAT THE GODDAMN ****S HOW CAN WE SPEND 15% OF OUR PAYROLL ON A RELIEVER TILTTIMSNDGSDJGSDJHGNL

OH MY GOD THE THIRD YEAR IS GUARANTEED IF HE FINISHES 55 GAMES ARE YOU KIDDING ME

SON OF A GODDAMNED NGISDNSDJHNDSUGSNGSDJSKDNGS ARE YOU JSDGKLDNDS

OH COME ON I STILL CAN'T BELIEVE IT THIS IS HORSE**** ARE YOU KIDDING ME GKSDLNSDLGJSDNGSKDJGHSDUIGDIJ bn

Kyleb he throws really hard stop complaining.

I wish I was kidding about Wood: http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index...od_is_a_c.html

This brings up a good topic, however: Closers generally pitch a little less than 5% of a team's innings. Is there a non-donkament justification for paying them so much? Even if, implausibly, hitting and def were only 50% of a team's quality and pitching 50%, I don't think I could pay eight figures for a closer as a GM.

generally its gonna be a bad idea to give closers that kind of cash, but you need a bullpen ace and they aint cheap if you dont have one

Well, there is leverage index to consider, which does make sense. However, there's not much justification for this type of signing; you're right.

Closers should be made, not purchased. They should then be traded for assets. See also: Oakland Athletics under Billy Beane.

Our bullpen ace in 2007 was the best reliever of all time. And only a slight exaggeration - if at all!

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/betanra01.shtml

79.1 IP, 9 BB, 80 K, 4 HR. 1.47 ERA 0.756 WHIP.

He then went on to eat dicks.

Kerry Wood has about the same track record. Why should we pay him $10m?

I'm not sure I agree with the view that 'you need a bullpen ace'. However, if I were to have one, I would like him, like all of my good pitchers, to pitch a large % of the innings. 100+. And bring him in when the game is tied or is separated by 1 run in the 7th or 8th instead of letting a less good pitcher ruin the game for you, leaving your relief ace to rot in the bullpen even when his arm is fresh.

moorobot,

Papelbon follows this pattern. The Red Sox use him in high leverage situations like you're talking about, rather than just the standard down by 3 runs in the 9th.

Other teams are figuring this out slowly but surely.

It seems to me that most relievers just fluctuate a lot from year to year as well. Betancourt 2007 had even stronger indicators of future success (K/BB, Hr allowed) than Wood 2008 and still imploded the next year. My eyes may of course deceive me (this is something that numbers needs to decide), but my pre-mathematical view is that it is sillier to base projections for future quality of off a single great year for relievers than it is for position players.

If Kerry can throw like this, then the deal is sweet:

http://www.astrosdaily.com/video/1998May6Wood20K.mpeg

o rly?

Thayer,

Come on. moorobot actually is trying to learn about this kind of stuff. We should be reasonably nice to people who actually want to understand this.

LOL. Bell looks so defeated after that first swing.

All the idiots on Let's Go Tribe love this deal. Ugh. It really is godawful. This is literally one of the most respected poster's arguments:

Using WAR to figure out whether or not Kerry Wood is worth the money is stupid. How many WAR would Jensen Lewis be worth in this situation, and for how much less money?

You're right obviously, though I didn't intend for my post to be as dickish as it probably came off.

billy bean was your closer?

nope, your mom.

ba zing

I got so tilted about the Kerry Wood deal and the people at Let's Go Tribe who loved the signing that I wrote an entire blog post about how much I hated it:

http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/20...alysis-kerry-w