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Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb

01-10-2014 , 01:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noze
Surprised some of you can dress yourselves
Sometimes I need help
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 05:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BAIDS
hi per bo lee
With the stress on the second syllable, right?

hy-PER-bo-lee
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 05:31 AM
anyone else see the irony in ppl asking how to pronounce common words in a thread mocking coaches for their stupidity?
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 05:50 AM
i don't think anyone here is being paid millions of dollars to pronounce words correctly tho
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 05:58 AM
ya well knowing which syllable to stress in hyperbole isn't really analogous to knowing the breakeven conversion rate on 4th n 2 from opponents 39 with 8 mins left in 3rd qtr in a 11 pt game either.

edit: if this conversation continues an otherwise good thread is gonna go full ******.

Last edited by riverboatking; 01-10-2014 at 05:58 AM. Reason: never go full retard
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 09:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vhawk01
I would be STUNNED if you could find an example or two of BB doing something that the internet nerd math said was too aggressive and was also against conventional wisdom.

Weird rando fake punts dont count
Those two things are completely different as I'm sure you know. I think he does go against conventional wisdom often but getting too aggressive for internet nerd math is another story.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 09:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vhawk01
I actually dont think BB has any idea what % of the time they convert in that spot, and I dont think he would really have any good explanation of how to figure it out either.

I think he could make an intuitive guess, and in a lot of situations be correct because his intuition is likely very very good. There would even be times when his intuition would be much better than any statistical or reasoning-based approach to decision-making. The problem is, there isnt any way to know WHEN his intuition will be better, and lots of times it wont be. Lots of times it will be DRAMATICALLY off, because his intuition is heavily biased by other factors, such as the power of anecdotal memory, "conventional wisdom," etc.
This is an excellent post and may very well be an accurate representation of BB. It might be completely wrong as well.

What I typically have a problem with is the assclown/internet nerd community posting that they absolutely know better than the head coach of an NFL team. Maybe they do, maybe it is as simple as a math equation. But to be so sure of that is just foolish given that you're only a fan and have dedicated 1 1000th of the time to the sport than these guys have.

The general douchebag superior attitude of these posters drives me insane. Letsgambool is one of the worst offenders and was the one that originally set me off.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 10:15 AM
Math is solvable. There are decisions that are clearly, unquestionably incorrect.

Coaches are still WAY better at their job than any of us would ever be, they know WAY more about football.

Those two thoughts can coexist happily.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 10:22 AM
lol Goodie.

"assclown/internet nerd community" is a good turn of phrase, though.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 10:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chim17
Math is solvable. There are decisions that are clearly, unquestionably incorrect.
Coaches are still WAY better at their job than any of us would ever be, they know WAY more about football.

Those two thoughts can coexist happily.
This is not true in football. There are million different factors on every single play that come into account. It's not solvable. There is not a math formula that takes into account every aspect of a play. You can use math to give you a general idea on what might be the best course of action, but there are always exceptions.

Given that this is a poker forum, people should be aware of this fact.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 10:39 AM
Tell me the potential factors that can cause a team with a historically elite ability at converting 1 yard to do it at a rate FAR worse than the worst team in the league.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 10:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodie
Yeah, that was just god awful. I mean, like, really really really bad. Honorable mention in that game was the debacle that took place when the Vikings made it 15-13 and they scrambled to figure out whether to go for two or not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodie
I only heard the game and I know they won anyways but the Cards running a bootleg with 58 seconds left on 3rd and eight and the Saints having no timeouts. They apparently fumbled (again, didn't see it) and the ball went out of bounds. That's a bonehead call if I ever saw one.

Nice win for them though. Pudge beat me to it. It was stupid enough for two posts though.
Also, your first two posts in the thread.

How dare you criticize a coach, you have no idea what other factors they were considering. Not even a normal criticism, but god awful!
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 10:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chim17
Tell me the potential factors that can cause a team with a historically elite ability at converting 1 yard to do it at a rate FAR worse than the worst team in the league.
If you can't think of factors that BB might know that you don't in this scenario, you might have to give up posting on this board. Just think about it for a minute. It'll come to you.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 10:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodie
If you can't think of factors that BB might know that you don't in this scenario, you might have to give up posting on this board. Just think about it for a minute. It'll come to you.
I didn't ask what BB knows that I don't. I'm asking you to construct a scenario that can realistically turn one of the best converting teams ever into the worst converting team of all time, and worst by a really large margin.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 10:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chim17
Also, your first two posts in the thread.

How dare you criticize a coach, you have no idea what other factors they were considering. Not even a normal criticism, but god awful!
I think it's pretty clear that I've been speaking mostly about BB as I believe he's earned our respect in his decision making. And I feel much more confident in my position with regards to BB.

However, I was wrong to criticize so fervently in the posts you quoted as I do believe that there might have been factors that I was not aware of.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 10:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chim17
I didn't ask what BB knows that I don't. I'm asking you to construct a scenario that can realistically turn one of the best converting teams ever into the worst converting team of all time, and worst by a really large margin.
Two things. Is it possible that you're completely wrong about NE needing to be the worst converting team of all time for it to be the correct call to take the points?

What BB knows that you don't could obviously affect the chances of conversion. I think that's obvious.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 10:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodie
Two things. Is it possible that you're completely wrong about NE needing to be the worst converting team of all time for it to be the correct call to take the points?

What BB knows that you don't could obviously affect the chances of conversion. I think that's obvious.
Nope. You can figure a needed point of a call that is correct (within a few %'s, anyways). What you can't do, because those other factors, is assign an actual % at the conversion rate of an attempt. There is a range, for sure, not unlike a poker hand.

If you have like a 30% breakeven point on a call, there is no chance the Pats are EVER below that. Brady is maybe the best sneaking QB of all time, and Pats are an efficient run team. Not to mention with the GOAT coach they should be able to exploit the defense better than the average team. I think someone else posted it, unless Brady is hiding an ACL injury I cannot personally construct a scenario where the Pats don't covert at least 35% of the time. The real number of a worst case scenario with whatever "other factors" is probably a lot closer to 45%, making it a monumental error. Realistically the Pats are even better than that in nearly every scenario.

That's why I asked you to construct any scenario you can imagine that makes the Pats the worst converting team of all time. I can't do it. The worst team in the NFL should be going for it in those spots, let alone one that is elite at converting. I cannot imagine a set of "outside factors" that can make any team convert below that mark, let alone the Pats. With a GOAT coach, an elite short distance QB, and an efficient run game there is not a scenario they are WOAT converting team. If you can make up some reasonable scenario where they are, I am honestly all ears.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 10:57 AM
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 11:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chim17
Nope. You can figure a needed point of a call that is correct (within a few %'s, anyways). What you can't do, because those other factors, is assign an actual % at the conversion rate of an attempt. There is a range, for sure, not unlike a poker hand.

If you have like a 30% breakeven point on a call, there is no chance the Pats are EVER below that. Brady is maybe the best sneaking QB of all time, and Pats are an efficient run team. Not to mention with the GOAT coach they should be able to exploit the defense better than the average team. I think someone else posted it, unless Brady is hiding an ACL injury I cannot personally construct a scenario where the Pats don't covert at least 35% of the time. The real number of a worst case scenario with whatever "other factors" is probably a lot closer to 45%, making it a monumental error. Realistically the Pats are even better than that in nearly every scenario.

That's why I asked you to construct any scenario you can imagine that makes the Pats the worst converting team of all time. I can't do it. The worst team in the NFL should be going for it in those spots, let alone one that is elite at converting. I cannot imagine a set of "outside factors" that can make any team convert below that mark, let alone the Pats. With a GOAT coach, an elite short distance QB, and an efficient run game there is not a scenario they are WOAT converting team. If you can make up some reasonable scenario where they are, I am honestly all ears.
I realize this. Nor can I. Kinda the whole point.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 11:00 AM
What I really don't get is your insistence that greats at their professions don't make mistakes.

Manning is GOAT but he'll regularly admit he made a mistake or poor decision. That's what makes the greats great. They learn, adjust, and get better. I have no doubt BB has regrets on decisions he has made in his career. He wouldn't have gotten so good if he didn't.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 11:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodie
I realize this. Nor can I. Kinda the whole point.
What a stupid ass response. Makes me sad I wasted all that time. We had a good run, back to ignore.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 11:06 AM
goodie
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 11:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chim17
Tell me the potential factors that can cause a team with a historically elite ability at converting 1 yard to do it at a rate FAR worse than the worst team in the league.
Not having the usual historic elite receivers/ lineman anymore (welker, Hernandez Gronk). Not really sure why past pats history matters it's a pretty diferent team talent wise then the teams he has had. The distance actually being closer to 2 yds instead of one. Playing an elite front 7. On the road. Lot's of factors and the coach has maybe 5-10 seconds to balance all those factors and make a call.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 11:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chim17
What I really don't get is your insistence that greats at their professions don't make mistakes.

Manning is GOAT but he'll regularly admit he made a mistake or poor decision. That's what makes the greats great. They learn, adjust, and get better. I have no doubt BB has regrets on decisions he has made in his career. He wouldn't have gotten so good if he didn't.
Quote:
I, of course, think he makes mistakes as he is human and all humans make mistakes. However, I don't, nor does anyone here, have the knowledge or understanding of the situations that he makes decisions in to know which decisions are poor (given the information he had at the time) and which are not.
Please read my posts before you make incorrect accusations.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote
01-10-2014 , 11:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chim17
What a stupid ass response. Makes me sad I wasted all that time. We had a good run, back to ignore.
Why is that a stupid response? It's pretty clear that my stance is that neither you or I have the information or knowledge to make the proper assessment of the situation.

I have no idea how you didn't see that clearly.
Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb Quote

      
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