Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodie
Two things. Is it possible that you're completely wrong about NE needing to be the worst converting team of all time for it to be the correct call to take the points?
What BB knows that you don't could obviously affect the chances of conversion. I think that's obvious.
Nope. You can figure a needed point of a call that is correct (within a few %'s, anyways). What you can't do, because those other factors, is assign an actual % at the conversion rate of an attempt. There is a range, for sure, not unlike a poker hand.
If you have like a 30% breakeven point on a call, there is no chance the Pats are EVER below that. Brady is maybe the best sneaking QB of all time, and Pats are an efficient run team. Not to mention with the GOAT coach they should be able to exploit the defense better than the average team. I think someone else posted it, unless Brady is hiding an ACL injury I cannot personally construct a scenario where the Pats don't covert at least 35% of the time. The real number of a worst case scenario with whatever "other factors" is probably a lot closer to 45%, making it a monumental error. Realistically the Pats are even better than that in nearly every scenario.
That's why I asked you to construct any scenario you can imagine that makes the Pats the worst converting team of all time. I can't do it. The worst team in the NFL should be going for it in those spots, let alone one that is elite at converting. I cannot imagine a set of "outside factors" that can make any team convert below that mark, let alone the Pats. With a GOAT coach, an elite short distance QB, and an efficient run game there is not a scenario they are WOAT converting team. If you can make up some reasonable scenario where they are, I am honestly all ears.