Ok sure. However my point was about this particular 2% mistake and the raw amount (not % of remaining) of win equity lost.

No of course not. Pagano probably makes the 5% mistakes more than anyone else too.

Again I don't know why everybody thinks I'm defending Pagano. That wasn't my point at all.

Disagree. While the BB SNF decision was correct, it wasn't nearly as obvious a decision as this one.

To get to the realization that BB's SNF decision was correct, you have to evaluate what happens if you make the 4th down (game is over) and what happens if you don't make it (you still can win by stopping the opponent).

To evaluate the decision yesterday, you just have to realize that Pagano was giving up with 11 minutes left in the game.

Suzzer, we all know what you're saying. We just don't care.

It's more about how clear-cut of a decision it was, and how he still managed to **** it up.

It's like folding AA pre with like 20 blinds left in the main event like 3 days away from the money, and "trusting you'll be dealt suited-connectors"* on the next hand or something. lol. Sure, you probably weren't going to win or make money either way but the correct decision there is so ****ing mind-numbingly obvious that it deserves ridicule until the offending party terminates themselves.

*Trying to think of the equivalent of "Trusting your D" here.

The Sean Payton decision to kick was awful, I thought, but the correct decision there doesn't seem nearly as obvious as Pagano's. 4th and 15 is not likely to convert (though I would have gone for it and thrown a Joe Flacco special and prayed for DPI). Even still, a TD requires 2pt conversion to tie. His options were very slim once he got to 4th and 15.

Also about the BEEF MOE play... if he goes down in bounds, can Seattle kneel out the clock? I wasn't paying that much attention to this at the time. I was just posting and laughing maniacally. If this is true, then yeah, technically BEEF cost his team infinite win probability. He still gets way more of a pass here from me because he's a running back amidst a physical act (running, holding a football, being chased by a dude) in the rain and mental errors can often arise when the physical act is the primary concern.

But in Pagano's case, he's supposed to be the team's guardian. The guy who makes decisions that give his team a fighting chance to win the game. He's the protector. He's also standing on the sideline doing nothing physical at all and has plenty of time to make a level-headed decision about 4th and 1. And he ****ed it up.

Literally ANY OFFENSIVE PLAYCALL there is better than punting. A fullback fade to the guy Marvin Harrison murdered is better there. Even if him or the OC don't know what play to call there, just tell Luck to pick one. Or Christ, you know that idiot "bruising" running back you just traded a first for? Run him up the middle. I don't care. ANYTHING. Punting is killing his entire team.

I play the gut with which decision is worse between Pagano and Payton

Pagano's punt is literally giving up, like I don't see the difference between punting and just sending your team to the showers with 10 minutes left and conceding.

It goes against everything sports are about (all the coach speak "dont give up, dont ever give up) and pisses me off.

At least the Saints still had a shot at the win after Payton's decision

I don't think Payton's FG attempt is that bad. At worst the kicker is maybe 30% to make it and making it improves the team's chances to win for sure.

There was exactly 2:40 left when Lynch scored the TD. So if he goes down at the 1 yard line the game is indeed over. They wouldn't need to run a play to reach the 2 minute warning and then kneel 3x and game is over.

devil's advocate, are the odds of the saints scoring two TDs plus a 2-point conversion that much different from the odds of a botched QB kneel and fumble + saints TD?

In fact the ANS 4th down calculator says the Saints FG attempt yields 0.13 WP and going for it yields 0.07 WP. So even with the bad weather it seems completely fine and defensible.

I tried arguing this with my GF when she saw me make a comment in the game day thread about it. Huge mistake on my part.

"Why should he go down?"
"Because then Seattle can take 3 knees and end the game"
"But he scored a TD..."
"Yeah, but look what happened. NO got the ball, scored a TD, did a successful onside kick and were ~30 yards from a another TD to possibly tie the game. If Lynch goes down, they take three knees, end the game, and NO never gets that close."
"But why wouldn't he want to score a TD"

SirRawrs,

Can we agree that 7 is more than zero?

I would think yes. Just because a botched QB kneel/fumble is so close to 0 that it wins all the time.

What about punting?

Wouldn't a punt with your FG kicker have an above average chance of getting blocked though? You could also have another bad snap and the ball sail backyards 30 yards.

Also, I don't remember if they did, but if Indy didn't send all 11 guys to try and block the thing, they did it wrong.

Watching this reminded me of Houston Nutt coaching at Ole Miss. Down 20 in the 4th against Auburn and Cam Newton they successfully recover an onside kick, then punt on 4th and 5 at midfield:

http://espn.go.com/ncf/playbyplay?ga...30145&period=4

4th Quarter 12:51 left
Auburn 44 Ole Miss 24

Andrew Ritter on-side kick recovered by OLE MISS at the Miss 43.

1st and 10 at MISS 43 Jeff Scott rush for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 39.
2nd and 14 at MISS 39 Jeremiah Masoli pass complete to Melvin Harris for 9 yards to the Miss 48.
3rd and 5 at MISS 48 Timeout MISSISSIPPI, clock 11:10.
3rd and 5 at MISS 48 Jeremiah Masoli pass incomplete to Melvin Harris.
4th and 5 at MISS 48 Tyler Campbell punt for 33 yards, fair catch by Quindarius Carr at the Aub 19.

That's awesome

Riverboat Ron shows why you go for it on 4th down deep in opp territory. Even though it failed, CAR nearly got a pick 6 on SF's possession, and started their next drive on the SF 30. Field position, how does it work. Not to mention, probably score a TD over half the time on the 4th down anyway.

And now Rivera kicks a FG on fourth and goal from inside the 2.

Elite DOG by riverboat Ron to avoid the 19 yd fg

Ron isn't good, he's just less bad than he used to be. His goal line play calls couldn't possibly be any more vanilla.

Yea obviously it's the wrong call but going for it again and not getting it when you've already failed something like 7 times might not be that bad and worth all the pundits questing you and talking about taking the points blah blah.

My comment wasn't about what actually happened it was about a hypothetical. Pagano's real life decision was obviously lol bad. I made the above comment while debating what the point differential had to be to get second guesses from the general sports media. I agreed with someone else that at 14 you could possibly hear some second guessing. RBK was saying there is no chance that anyone would second guess at 14.

this made me lol because its reminds me of so much of coversations that end with "but how much did you lose?"