Yeah can't understand the hate. Especially since Hummels came up through the Bayern system.

Reminds me when fellow Werder fans went nuts over Herzog following Otto to Bayern and at the same time we ripped out Freiburg's heart by buying Cardoso.

well, the reason he's begging is that his club wanted a decision so that it's not a second version of Lewandowski leaving for free. Sure they were hoping that he'd sign but but if he was gonna leave, now>2017. Plus, yeah they're the second best team in the league, but they're also a top 4 team in the world and still have a single digit percent chance to win the title, that's gotta be depressing.

The SPL point is valid ofc when it comes to the title race. Difference ofc that Bundesliga games are still watchable for the football alone even without title implications, plus there's international spots to play for (not sure if there's any european entry for scottish team other than the champion)

top 4 itw wat

don't act like that's some sort of super controversial statement

Bayern Barca Atleti and then Real BVB PSG are right in there

BAIDS's Bundesliga expertise is indisputable. I'm sure he watches more Bundesliga games per year than Bjørn.

top 4 itw clubs dont get KOd by the ever exploding clown car of english football that is liverpool imo. bvb werent even that big of a fav with the bookies

they'd quite obviously be a dog against actual top 4 itw club real madrid, prob psg and juve too

Variance, how does it work?

Also:

no chance in your estimation that bookie lines were influenced by plop homers? Esp since germans dont seem to sports bet nearly as much as brits do

imo watching the plop-bvb tie it was pretty clear that Dortmund were a tier above, even with noted doper Sakho in the lineup. And I can't really be accused of bias towards dortmund, I was the happiest guy on the forum when plop won

this comes up a lot. if it worked like that then we could all make a very nice living by piling on unfashionable teams every week

You weren't around during BAIDS's "The Market" fiasco (from which above .gif originates), when he claimed that "The Market" is always correct, and that, when there is fat-bloke-bias, the sharks immediately jump on it, thus correcting the line to the true value.

yes i remember u declaring yourself smarter than der markt when you called buyern >> barca and won 7-0

but for some reason cant remember you renouncing the claim when you called buyern >> real and lost 0-5

I never declared any such thing. I said that lines can be moved by fat-bloke-bias. Fat blokes saw us marauding through Europe in 2013, and, accordingly, we were favourites to advance against Real before the first leg had been played. Then they battered us 5-0. Thanks for making my point.

wouldn't that imply the sharks are perfect

i would advise against ever taking a sugar nut summation of an argument at face value

he's ldo not as bad as baldi (who is imo the most talented misrepresenter on the entire intertubes and no one can convince me otherwise), but he's pretty bad

Yeah, obviously always take BAIDS at face value, though. For example when he claims *I* claimed Bayern >>>>> Barca in 2013. Again, I claimed no such thing. I said, that we do have a decent shot at being on par with them this year (while they had been the undisputed btitw for the past few years).

That was THE one year in my life where I watched more football than I had ever before (and, sadly, have ever since). Most of that time was spent watching every single second of Bayern matches (I still do that), and a ****ton of Barca and to a lesser extent Arsenal matches.

Thus, I felt pretty confident predicting that there isn't nearly as big a gap between the two teams as there had been in previous years. The entire 2p2SE forum (led by resident fat blokes BAIDS and kingweed and their collective 2009-12 recency bias) were like, LÖL u! barca btitw u gun lose, son.

Then we battered them 7-0.

ok what did the books say ahead of barca-buyern

i shall point out again that subsequent to that you were quite mistaken about buyern's chances prior to the 0-5 against real

for some people that series of events would cause a period of self reflection, during which the idea that the super special insights you think you glean from watching a lot of a team does not mean you are a better predictor of that teams results when compared with der almighty markt

basically i'm trying to tell you that you are not a special snowflake

You talking about self reflection is really quite funny. Understandable, though, as self reflecting upon one's fat-bloke existence in relation to the claim that fat blokes can move lines can be difficult.

Anyway, I fear I must leave you be for now. As always, it's been nice having some...



with you.

im glad one of us enjoyed it

Gonna be antisauce for 1 post.

1) Differentiate between soft and sharp bookies. Anyone with half a brain cell will get limited/banned v quickly from all soft bookies so the fanerio's of the world bet in Asia/betting exchanges -> soft bookies can slightly shade prices to maximize profits -> when speaking of der markt, always refer to Asia (though obviously the difference for big markets like european footy at SP is very small).

2) Asia heavily influences the soft bookie lines ldo.

3) Actual FB influence can be seen in the Super Bowl and even then it's way overstated and that's pretty much it.

4) Dortmund is not #4 atm nor is it that close.

Millions of fat blokes think that watching a lot of football makes it possible for them to outsmart Markt. Strangely it's the Markt that makes the most money. I can only think of one possible solution to this paradox

have no issues with the first part of this sentence, but I do think it's close

I know it's loltransfermarkt but BVB isn't that far off the top 5

http://www.transfermarkt.com/spieler.../marktwertetop

One of us is remembering wrong because to my mind The Market argument was over Barca being 1.5 away to us, therefore we had no chance according to Der Markt/Kolo/others.

Result 2-1 Celtic and a post saying "stick that in your markets!".