symptomatic of aging receivers getting tracked down before crossing the goal.
breakaway cat done broke for miami

If Tua wins regular season and Super Bowl MVP awards next season while his average TD pass travels lass then 4 yards in the air, only the pro-contrarians would complain about that.

Like Stephen A. Smith who claimed Deshaun Watson was more important to his team than Mahomes 4 years ago when the Chiefs won the SB. A year that Mahomes had 4 TD passes in less 10 minutes against Houston in the playoffs.

as much as i hate to say it,
i believe tua will miss at least 25% of the season due to lingering effects.
hard time convincing myself any season total prop bet with him involved could be anything but the under

So they'll finish 12-5

I'll take it

how many heads of lettuce do you willing contribute to propping up this prediction?

did you miss the part of their schedule that includes the AFCwest and every meaningful team across both conferences located along the eastern seaboard (plus a few others)?

They definitely don't have an easy schedule and the Chiefs are very good but the Raiders, Broncos and Chargers were 21-30 last year. Not exactly a terrifying gauntlet to endure

In fairness that was supposed to matter. And for next year at least in the case of the chargers that should. In the case of the broncos that might

In the case of joshy and Womp it wont

Mahomes is the king of the 1 or 2 yard TD pass. Just a little underhand flip to Kelce or whoever. Makes it look soooooooooo easy. Every week I'm yelling "stat padding!!!!!!"

And then I watch every other QB (including JA17) throw passes inside the 5 and am like yeah, it's not that easy

These are the teams I'd feel very confident they can beat provided they stay healthy. That's 11 wins. 10 if they end up splitting against the Jets.

Then it's just a matter of stealing 1 or 2 wins when against LAC, PHI, KC, DAL and BAL. I think best chance would be against anyone not PHI or KC.

so your side 12-5 or better and my side is the opposite?

FWIW, under/under for wins for the Dolphins is 9.5.

Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals are at 11.5. Nobody higher.

oh not looking to bet with anyone. sorry for the confusion

That's interesting. I was looking at the Bills schedule and I think they have about 7 games that I would say aren't exactly guaranteed.

nfling is hard

O/U Bills is 10.5

What would you consider a guaranteed win? Last season the Bills lost to the Jets and Vikings. Bengals started 4-4 after losses to PIT, DAL, BAL, CLE. Chiefs lost to the Colts. Eagles lost to the former-Redskins and Saints (without Hurts).

Any Given Sunday. I use the term guaranteed loosely. I guess a better way to put it would be games I'd expect them to win, or that I think most people would be surprised if they lost.

I figure people would be surprised if the Bills lost to any of the highlighted teams. On the other hand, I think people wouldn't be as shocked if they lost to any of the unhighlighted teams.

FWIW, Bills are 1.5 point favorites at the Jets in week 1 right now. Down from -3 when the line opened. Lots of things are going to change between now and week 1 but as of right now I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Jets won that one.

Right now, the only AFC vs. AFC matchup in week 1 with a team favored by more than 3.5 points is Houston at Baltimore.

Going down the schedule and highlighting wins and losses before the season is a completely futile exercise. Every season is a completely new team, we have no idea which teams will be surprisingly good.

Who would have thought the Jets and Giants would start a combined 10-2 last year? Who put the Geno Smith-led Seahawks in the playoffs? What we think of these teams is heavily based on what they did last year, and now it’s a completely different team.

One of my favorite NFL bet hustles: pick 7 teams before the season starts, and all must miss the playoffs. Seems easy, right? There are so many bad teams, and 18 of them will miss the playoffs. The change and surprise is what’s constant in the NFL.

You should really be getting plus odds to pick 7 teams to miss the playoffs…. But if anyone wants to prove me wrong, I’ll offer it at 1:1 for anyone in this thread up to a hundo.

we're all just wasting keystrokes

TB12 and the Pats are going to raise the Lombardi at the end (like they always do)

Jets on hardknocks is interesting. They could be decent this year. They were decent last year, but the QB play was horrific. If only they had decent QB play, not amazing just decent. I would not spend 60 mil on an old QB, but I understand the frustration and desperation.

Will Bert Farve participate tho

I mean throw Rogan

Him and his craziness is probably the only reason for the Jets to be picked.

FWIW, it looks like "Quarterbacks" has been released on Netflix this morning.

Sounds like Barkley is threatening to sit out the season without a long term deal. Maybe he should call Le'Veon Bell to ask if that's a good idea.

Espn’s deep dive into gruden/Snyder is absolutely ****ing wild

Everyone in the ownership group/commish is such a ****ing scumbag

ive seen this game done with 5 or 6 teams and they still almost always lose, 7 is borderline scamming.