I see this happening like 0%, if anybody in this draft Mikal has like 0% bust equity, he isn't the sexiest player & doesn't have a high ceiling but he's ready made & out the gate will be solid just like Otto Porter was when he got picked. I think when we look back on this draft in 5 years we will see just how stacked it really was. I think if they kept Mikal & moved up to get Miles by trading Fultz their team would've been complete & wouldn't need the pick to trade for Kawhi, who doesn't even want to be there & is coming off of an injury & has a difficult management team behind him.

I'll just leave this here, i probably will save this quote for the doubters.

- Lonnie Walker= allstar
- Miles Bridges= will be a beast
- Mikal " "= super role player just like Otto

No Otto Porter is a terrible 2nd best player, unless your best player is Lebron and you want him(Bron) to play 48 minutes. He is incapable of creating offense, you need multiple guys on the floor that can create. He is a good 3rd, great 4th/5th best player

He's also got solid handles, great vision, and can get to the rim at will (finishes really well) even at the international level where he's playing a lot of minutes on Canada's national team. He's also solid at shooting off the dribble. He draws fouls at an incredibly high rate as well. His offensive comparison right now would be more Derozan (with the improved passing) with a much higher potential of getting a 3pt shot.

I know USA's team for that year isn't the best as the class is pretty weak, but he did single handedly beat them last year in the u18s. The 1st international FIBA loss the US had suffered men or women in like 6 years.

He's the 3rd best player on the team though. Yeah with the Warriors you can't win it all with Porter as the 2nd best player but if he was playing with Lebron or was the 2nd best player on the Cavs maybe they could be the 2nd best team ITL.

You don't want a lot of players as your 2nd best player in the league--hell I'm pretty sure you don't want Lowry, Jonas or DDR as your 2nd best player in the current NBA.

Lowry as your 2nd best player would be pretty damn good actually. You would have conservatively 2 top 15 players and a guy who makes everyone else better including your best player. Also defends well and rebounds extremely well for a guard.

Porter would be a great fit on the Cavs as their 3rd best player behind Love and Lebron. 2nd best player not so much.

yea hows that working out for Tor year after year?

What? Lowry is Toronto's best player, if they got someone better than him without giving up anything they would probably win more than 65 games and have a >30% of titling even vs these Warriors

What the H is wiz plan at center? Dwight?

So real that the majority of this thread just discounts ayton like he's gunna be nothing. His bust equity is negative imo. Maybe never a top 5 player but should be a cornerstone for suns moving forward with booker

It's unbelievable how often two people have extreme opinions on something and the answer is in between. He sure as hell isn't a top 15 player, and he sure as hell isn't not a top 50 player, who gives a flying **** where he falls in between except the two guys in this argument?

The list of guys drafted in the lottery who are >21 in the last ten years is actually much better than I expected. Of course there are varying degrees of this "21" but whatever, it seemed like a reasonable cut off (absolutely shocked the VO was 21):

Steph, Lillard, VO, Kemba, Klay are the only all stars. CJ borderline.

About 3.5 picks are used on 21+ year olds in the lottery per year. Nothing seems particularly noteworthy here tbh. If you were to just look at the distribution of players over this 10 year period, you have 1 top 5 player, 1 guy in the fringe top 10, a few more top 25. So about 25% of the lottery picks are used on 21+ guys, making up about 25% of the top 25ish players, including one Steph. It's a shockingly even distribution really. If you go back one more year you get Horford. None of the guys in the last 3 years, even probably this year's guys, seem like they have much upside.

Year	Rnd	Pick	Player	Team	Draft Trades	Pos	Height	Weight	Age	YOS	Pre-Draft Team
2018	1	13	Jerome Robinson	Los Angeles Clippers		SG	6-5	190	21	0	Boston College
2018	1	10	Mikal Bridges	Philadelphia Sixers	PHL to PHX	SG	6-7	209	21	0	Villanova
2016	1	14	Denzel Valentine	Chicago Bulls		F	6-6	214	22	1	Michigan State
2016	1	12	Taurean Prince	Utah Jazz	UTH to ATL	SF/PF	6-8	220	22	1	Baylor
2016	1	6	Buddy Hield	New Orleans Pelicans		G	6-4	214	22	1	Oklahoma
2016	1	5	Kris Dunn	Minnesota Timberwolves		SG	6-4	210	22	1	Providence
2015	1	9	Frank Kaminsky	Charlotte Hornets		F	7-0	242	22	2	Wisconsin
2015	1	6	Willie Cauley-Stein	Sacramento Kings		PF	7-0	240	21	2	Kentucky
2014	1	11	Doug McDermott	Denver Nuggets	DEN to CHI	F	6-8	219	22	3	Creighton
2013	1	10	C.J. McCollum	Portland Trail Blazers		SG/PG	6-3	190	21	4	Lehigh
2013	1	2	Victor Oladipo	Orlando Magic		SG/PG	6-4	210	21	4	Indiana
2013	1	11	Michael Carter-Williams	Philadelphia Sixers		PG/SG	6-6	190	21	4	Syracuse
2013	1	13	Kelly Olynyk	Dallas Mavericks	DAL to BOS	C/PF	7-0	238	22	4	Gonzaga
2012	1	5	Thomas Robinson	Sacramento Kings		PF	6-10	237	21	5	Kansas
2012	1	8	Terrence Ross	Toronto Raptors		SG/SF	6-7	206	21	5	Washington
2012	1	6	Damian Lillard	Portland Trail Blazers		PG	6-3	195	21	5	Weber State
2012	1	14	John Henson	Milwaukee Bucks		C/PF	6-11	229	21	5	North Carolina
2011	1	9	Kemba Walker	Charlotte Hornets		PG/SG	6-1	184	21	6	Connecticut
2011	1	10	Jimmer Fredette	Milwaukee Bucks	MIL to SAC	SG	6-2	195	22	5	Brigham Young
2011	1	11	Klay Thompson	Golden State Warriors		SG	6-7	215	21	6	Washington State
2011	1	6	Jan Vesely	Washington Wizards		PF	6-11	240	21	3	KK Partizan (Serbia)
2011	1	14	Marcus Morris	Houston Rockets		SF/PF	6-9	235	21	6	Kansas
2011	1	13	Markieff Morris	Phoenix Suns		PF	6-10	245	21	6	Kansas
2010	1	6	Ekpe Udoh	Golden State Warriors		PF/C	6-10	245	23	5	Baylor
2010	1	13	Ed Davis	Toronto Raptors		PF	6-10	245	21	7	North Carolina
2010	1	2	Evan Turner	Philadelphia Sixers		SF/SG	6-7	220	21	7	Ohio State
2010	1	14	Patrick Patterson	Houston Rockets		PF	6-9	230	21	7	Kentucky
2010	1	4	Wesley Johnson	Minnesota Timberwolves		SG/SF	6-7	215	22	7	Syracuse
2010	1	11	Cole Aldrich	New Orleans Pelicans	NOP to OKC	C	6-11	250	21	7	Kansas
2009	1	13	Tyler Hansbrough	Indiana Pacers		PF	6-9	250	23	7	North Carolina
2009	1	8	Jordan Hill	New York Knicks		PF	6-10	240	21	8	Arizona
2009	1	14	Earl Clark	Phoenix Suns		PF	6-10	234	21	6	Louisville
2009	1	12	Gerald Henderson	Charlotte Hornets		SG	6-5	215	21	8	Duke
2009	1	7	Stephen Curry	Golden State Warriors		PG	6-3	190	21	8	Davidson
2009	1	11	Terrence Williams	New Jersey Nets		SG	6-6	220	21	4	Louisville
2009	1	2	Hasheem Thabeet	Memphis Grizzlies		C	7-3	265	22	5	Connecticut
2008	1	13	Brandon Rush	Portland Trail Blazers	POR to IND	SG	6-6	220	22	9	Kansas
2008	1	12	Jason Thompson	Sacramento Kings		PF	6-11	250	21	8	Rider
2008	1	8	Joe Alexander	Milwaukee Bucks		SF	6-8	230	21	3	West Virginia

Who gives a **** if he busts? He has to be a supermax to be worth that pick, he has to be actually good at making winning basketball plays and not just stats, because no one disagrees that he'll be able to get 20/10 and get a max contract 5 years from now.

Though it's tough to call no bust equity on dudes who were previously nicknamed based on being a waste of height. How many guys with his profile are even top 25 players? In his prime what'll he be better than Joel Embiid is right now? And Embiid is a fringe top 25 player atm.

Do you really think Boogie is going to regress that badly? He is still 27. He will still likely be a top 3 centre in the league post injury. All reports state he is progressing ahead of time. Like PG13 broke his leg in half and is still a top 5ish wing player, and the 2nd best 3nD guy in the league.

Jordan Bell, Zaza Pachulia and David West >>> Klay Thompson... put down the crack pipe, 538.

Achilles injuries are pretty severe.

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2018/1/...s-is-the-worst

Dominque is the only guy who didn’t really drop that much in production who had the injury.

Every single one of those guys are either old, below average basketballers or both.

So it’s an old players injury and yet cousins has it already. Would you like to bet if his stats don’t drop a certain percentage plus missed games? You’re the only one that’s defended this injury and pick over and over.

Like I get it, you have to but it’s a really bad injury for a player to come back from.

No, its just that sample isnt one that fits DMC. In his prime as an elite ball player and still young. The one that actually is semi close is Drexler and he didnt even dip that much.

Sure, whats the % and games missed.

There's not a huge sample size to really take any notice though.

Big men in their mid to late 20s... Elton Brand might be the only comparable one?

And Brand dislocated his shoulder only 20 or so games after he returned, so I'm not sure what you can take from it.

He basically missed two years in his prime.

He was then pretty solid for a little while after that.

And Cousins is a lot better than Brand was.

It's obviously super-risky, but to say Cousins is only a minor chance to recover is a bit unfair.

That was dominique.

Brand is the best comparison for cousins and he went from an all nba player in 2006 at 26 to his injury at 28. 26 per to 23 to 14 and then 16 the season after.

The 5 years after his injury he averaged a 16.8 per at 52% ts% vs 23.5 and 57% ts% the six seasons before. He missed 90 games including nearly 60 the first two back.

Cousins averaged 24.4 on 55% ts% the last 5 seasons. So let’s say he’s over 20 per and 53% you win over the next two seasons you win, else I win and he needs to play more than 60 games per season.

Twigley is basically expecting full recovery though which seeems like a long shot.

He averages 64 games a season and you put the line @ 60.5?

I said in my write up he is atleast still a top 5 centre and best case scenario he returns to be All NBA. I don't think its going to be a massive injury ravage like everyone is making it out to be.

What do you want it at? 40? If it’s 40 then there is no way in hell hes a top 3 center.

Im not going to bet anything if its 3.5 games missed against his average = injury ravaged.

Fine what do you want to put? He’s already injury prone to begin with. Again this hurts your argument that he’s a top 3 center before and now after.

Anthony Davis
Jokic
Embiid
Capela
Porzingus
Gobert

Even if three are injury prone, they don’t have this injury.

With less than 50- 60 games from boogie then guys like Adams, drummond and DAJ come into the conversation even if boogie might be a lot more talented.

KAT

Whoops Kat too. List keeps getting longer.