Ron Paul 2012 Containment Thread - Page 133 - Politics and Economics

I was asking for them... at the time it was claimed that RP was >90% to win atleast 1 state. I actually don't know who has the best of the bet the other way....I actually think it could be close and was partly why I chose that number.

I'll take 5:1 the other way for a nominal amount, with the belief that neither of us would have much the best of it either way.

08-27-2011 , 01:26 PM

#3302

Max Raker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Spladle

I'll take 5:1 the other way for a nominal amount, with the belief that neither of us would have much the best of it either way.

How nominal is nominal?

And I haven't looked at it closely enough, but are there any nit points on "win a state". I know most states are winner take all, but some split delegates, so is there any ambiguity to "win a state"? But if you are talking about a few k or less I could be down after we iron out the details.

08-27-2011 , 01:36 PM

#3303

Spladle

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Raker

How nominal is nominal?

Seems straightforward to me that winning a state should entail winning a plurality of its delegates. Ties don't constitute a win. I'd be fine with nickel : penny. I don't view the bet as a money-making opportunity; in fact, I think there's a very good chance I'm taking the worst of it. I just think the act of betting on it would be fun. So minimizing the cost makes sense. Make the offer 50:1 and we can start to worry about real money and escrow and all that stuff. =P

Edit: I anticipate receiving roughly identical levels of psychological pleasure from seeing a transfer of $0.05 as from seeing a transfer of $500.

08-27-2011 , 01:50 PM

#3304

Max Raker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Spladle

Ok, winning a state means >50% of it's delegates.

The bet is:

"Ron Paul will win at least one state in the republican primary"

If he does I pay you 50 dollars.
If he doesn't you pay me 10 dollars.

Say yes if you agree and I am fine with no escrow. (and if you want to lower the amount that is fine also)

08-27-2011 , 01:52 PM

#3305

FallsviewPokerPro

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What if he gets more delegates from a state than any other GOP candidate? How does that not count as a win?

08-27-2011 , 01:54 PM

#3306

Max Raker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by FallsviewPokerPro

What if he gets more delegates from a state than any other GOP candidate? How does that not count as a win?

Yeah, that was the other definition of "win" that I was thinking made sense. But he went for the stricter one so I agreed to that

Do you know off the top of your head which states have weird systems? I remember that there was some issue last time where paul delegates were "causing trouble" by not doing what is normally done. Forget exactly what it was about though

08-27-2011 , 01:56 PM

#3307

Fermion5

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Spladle

You seem to have misunderstood. The calculation completely fails to explain his chances of winning a state in the R primaries as well.

Quote:

It gives a really bad answer in this case because given your 5% number is ok on a per state basis, they will often happen together.

then explain it to me bc I don't understand.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Raker

oh it's 5:1 this way, not the other way. Sign me up for this bet.

08-27-2011 , 02:00 PM

#3308

FallsviewPokerPro

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You guys better get a mod to escrow this just in case.

08-27-2011 , 02:02 PM

#3309

Max Raker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion5

oh it's 5:1 this way, not the other way. Sign me up for this bet.

How much do you want? And we are using Spladle's definition of win?

And I am closed on taking action on this bet, after Spladle and Fermion5. Or I should say, I don't want to put down more than 5k on this. And if there is enough action on the other side for that, you guys can pool together your 1K and we can find an escrow. If it is only going to be for a few hundred or less I am fine with no escrow.

(No need to put much more down on something I just made up off the top of my head

)

Last edited by Max Raker; 08-27-2011 at 02:10 PM.

08-27-2011 , 02:03 PM

#3310

Max Raker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by FallsviewPokerPro

You guys better get a mod to escrow this just in case.

Nah, my magic store is doing well brah

08-27-2011 , 02:15 PM

#3311

Fermion5

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Raker

How much do you want? And we are using Spladle's definition of win?

And I am closed on taking action on this bet.

(No need to put much more down on something I just made up off the top of my head

)

I like the definition of winning to be winning a plurality of delegates, not >50%. I'd like to include all primary types: open, closed, modified open, caucus, etc.

What is the max you are willing to accept for the bet? I'll go with that.

08-27-2011 , 02:26 PM

#3312

Fermion5

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Or we could just decide to use this site as the official results:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republi...rimaries,_2012

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republi...rimaries,_2008

08-27-2011 , 02:29 PM

#3313

Max Raker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion5

I like the definition of winning to be winning a plurality of delegates, not >50%

Ok, if you want to change the bet to this I'll put down a max 500 combined for you and Spladle. (I'll convert his bet to this definition which is obv better for him). Escrow or not is up for negotiation.

Quote:

I'd like to include all primary types: open, closed, modified open, caucus, etc.

What is the max you are willing to accept for the bet? I'll go with that.

Please explain what you mean here.... I was under the assumption that win a state was unambiguous and not dependent on things like this.

08-27-2011 , 02:32 PM

#3314

Max Raker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion5

Or we could just decide to use this site as the official results:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republi...rimaries,_2012

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republi...rimaries,_2008

I am fine with a bet on a wiki map* after the primary. (Actually i like this alot and it is the manner in which all my LHC Higgs/SUSY bets are determined.

But obv my max is 500 on that, since it uses the "win the most" and not win >50% metric.

08-27-2011 , 02:39 PM

#3315

Fermion5

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Raker

Please explain what you mean here.... I was under the assumption that win a state was unambiguous and not dependent on things like this.

yea, I guess it's not necessary. Every state has either a primary or a caucus.

Escrow will be tough as I can't use poker sites to transfer, but I'm sure we can work something out.

End date of the bet is mid or late June? *edit* or is it called early if he wins a state early on and the wiki map shows it?

Last edited by Fermion5; 08-27-2011 at 02:45 PM.

08-27-2011 , 02:57 PM

#3316

Max Raker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion5

How much do you want? I am fine with keeping it small and no escrow as no poker makes it alot harder to ship money.

When will the final wiki map be set? Is it only after the convention? Of course if paul binks Iowa I'll ship before that... but you still have a chance to win as long as the map isn't completely finished.

08-27-2011 , 03:17 PM

#3317

Fermion5

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I'll let Spadle choose first since he was first and you gave us a 500 combined limit.

No clue when the final wiki map will be set. I assume it gets filled in as the results become official for each state.

08-27-2011 , 03:26 PM

#3318

Max Raker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion5

I'll let Spadle choose first since he was first and you gave us a 500 combined limit.

Yeah, I was going to say that also. He gets as much as he wants (which I think won't be too much since he wasn't sure it was a good bet to begin with) and you can have as much of the rest as you want. If any known poster wants some of the rest the 500 stands, till it is all bought.

Quote:

No clue when the final wiki map will be set. I assume it gets filled in as the results become official for each state.

I am fine with no hard deadline. I think it will eventually become apparent who has won and if there is some disagreement (which seems unlikely) we can let the forum decide.

08-27-2011 , 03:38 PM

#3319

Spladle

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Raker

You seem to have confused "plurality" with "majority."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plurality_%28voting%29

Once we agree on the definition of "win" I am fine with $50:$10 and no escrow. $10 seems like a small price to pay for the opportunity to have more fun sweating Nevada.

08-27-2011 , 03:39 PM

#3320

Spladle

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Raker

Yeah, that was the other definition of "win" that I was thinking made sense. But he went for the stricter one so I agreed to that

Again, think you may have confused plurality with majority.

08-27-2011 , 03:40 PM

#3321

Fermion5

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I guess earlier Max you were saying there's dependence b/c if he wins an early state, he's likely to win 10+ states... and if he doesn't win an early state, he's not likely to win any states. I disagree with you on how big of an impact this will have. Comparing this dependence to winning states in the general is laughable to me.

Spadle, let's just go with the wiki map and/or webpage. It uses plurality.

08-27-2011 , 03:42 PM

#3322

Spladle

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion5

then explain it to me bc I don't understand.

Treating dependent events as independent yields really bad answers. Consider the case where you draw 52 cards from a deck. Whether you replace the cards after drawing them makes a pretty big difference when trying to figure out your chances of drawing any specific card.

08-27-2011 , 03:46 PM

#3323

Spladle

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Fermion5 I'm going to feel really bad if you or other RP supporters bet a lot of money on this just because I was willing to bet a little. Let me be clear: I am knowingly taking a -EV bet just for funsies.