Quote:
Originally Posted by Minirra
The Shy Tory effect is def real. Any straight poll that has Moore within ~10 points makes me believe he'll probably win
Minirra:
Alabama voter (and long time North Alabama resident) here ...
I'm not so sure pedo Roy is a lock. This may be more "wishful thinking" than an outright prediction, but Democratic challenger Doug Jones may have a better chance than all these polls are indicating. The last time Roy Moore ran statewide for elective office was 2012. In that election he was running to reclaim his Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court position - an office he had been booted out of after refusing to obey a United States Supreme Court order to remove a Ten Commandments stone monument he had erected. Moore "won" that election, but just barely. He won against a Democratic opponent by a margin of 51 to 49 percent. (And that was before all these creepy allegations became public knowledge.)
I watched a video somebody posted [on here?] of Moore's wife and one of his campaign aides arguing with a gaggle of reporters who were attempting to ask questions. Moore's wife (and the spokesman) were frantic as to why reporters weren't talking about "the issues" instead of "personal crap!" that nobody cares about? (I'm paraphrasing a bit, but it was obvious that top Moore campaign aides - especially his wife - do not want the media asking questions about Roy Moore, teenage girls, and [alleged] "stuff" that happened nearly 40 years ago.)
One gets the sense, from watching this spectacle, that the stories (and the continuing coverage) are having an effect - probably not a good effect - on the Moore campaign. I'll be voting at a church precinct on December 12. I'll probably vote in mid-afternoon. It's going to be interesting gauging the turnout. I have a feeling there's going to be heavy voter turnout statewide. The only way I can see turnout not being heavy is if a substantial number of Republicans decide to stay home and not vote. If turnout is depressed, I would think that has to be good for Doug Jones.
Democrats are certainly not a majority in this state, they're outnumbered by something like 2-1, but I get the feeling that Democrats are highly motivated to get out and vote. Plus, Doug Jones is running a smart campaign. I'm seeing a lot more of his ads on TV than I am Moore's, another indication that Roy Moore is having trouble raising money.
Adding all this up, I think Doug Jones might just pull this out. Whatever happens, election night will be interesting ...