Every once in awhile I have a week where I say screw any of the math, this is that week with the Chargers. Denver sucks. I'll probably bet it too. A lot will want to save Chargers for Seattle next week. Next week doesn't have much if you have used Cincy.

Broncos 17-16 win incoming

Legitimately feel like the Rams is the trap game of the year this week.

The Rams have done nothing through their first 5 games to indicate that they're an above average team.

How much worse can Walker really be than Mayfield as well? Over the course of a full season once teams have film on him, gameplan, etc I get it but 1 game he probably isn't much of a downgrade. Then you got the 1st game without Rhule stuff as well.

Packers/Bucs haven't done a ton through 5 games either to be fair, but Rodgers and Brady obviously get more benefit of the doubt.

San Francisco against the lowly Falcons is a excellent choice for those who have not picked them yet

Decided to roll the dice this week in a pool that started with 7k and was down to ~650, and took Washington. Got through and now we sit and wait to rams and bucs to both lose this week.

And packers. Bloodbath 2.0

Down to 2 in the big nitro . Lfg.

Obv went with rams. Obv bc they were the only fave to win i think.

if down to 2 people left and have TB avail you just use them next week right? the other person doesn't have TB so they likely go to NE

this means ill have to use NYG vs Hou later when TB plays Sea but seems like you probably just want to use TB now vs Darnold/Walker at the peak of their value.

I was somewhat pissed yesterday because I lost a bunch of entries in a bunch of pools. I am still sort of pissed. Should I be looking at this positively or negatively? Here's how my day went.

Week 5 Pool. ~$120K prize pool. 795 entries left going into yesterday. Currently: 483 with 50 on Chargers. I had 7 entries going into yesterday and now I have 2 left

Regular pool with 1,519 entries. ~$45K prize pool. 177 going into yesterday. I had 2 entries entering day. I lost one and have 1 left. 75 entries left with 8 on Chargers

~$24K prize pool. 124 initial entries. 22 entries left going into yesterday. I had one entry and took Rams. Currently 9 entries left with 2 on Chargers.

I got knocked out of another pool with ~185 entries left and down to 70 with 5 on Chargers.


So I am in 3 of 4 pools left. (2 entries out of 483. 1 out of 75, 1 out of 9).

I think I still take yesterday as a major loss for me and reason to be really depressed as I take this seriously each year. Any thoughts with semi-surviving the carnage?

I guess you know this was coming, and you def don't want to hear it, but it does not matter how you look at it as nothing will change as a result. If your decisions were sound, you should be happy, and if they were not, then you can still be happy but look at it as something to work on.

Boy I used to HATE when people said stuff like I just did when I was mad......and now I have become one of those people who say that stuff. Damn----oh well;(

Well what I was really getting at was should I take this as a positive that so many people got drilled and I'm sort of still in.

Or would it have been better to have far less carnage and a good amount of the pool still in (with myself having lots more entries).

I feel like it's better for me on the latter route because now if I make a few missteps I'm going to be out of these pools any week now.

Calculate your EV yesterday vs today to make an objective decision re: positive vs negative.

Then look at all your picks and see how you could have done better, objectively, not based on results.

Then either rest easy knowing you picked optimally and that's them breaks, or take it is a learning experience.

Worst case, you still have some entries left, so continue to have fun!

any update on the $100 DK survivor? must be over 90% gone?

I have to drive to a different state to get in it and because of life circumstances I couldn't do it this year, would've likely been alive too. Go figure

That.

What a wild week. Got through with LAR in single picks (lost 1 entry on Tampa Bay).

Had 2x picks this week in another and that was a bloodbath. I had 8 entries remaining. I opened 2 of them with Chicago on Thursday (4 more 2x weeks - GAMBLE GAMBLE). For other 6, took LAR in all of them with 4 LAC & 4 Arizona.

I missed the early slate, but sweated it from my phone. That was the an amazing slate for 2x picks with what I took. Had to near max sweat it out from there.

91.5% of the field is gone. Over 30% chose TB and got kicked in the nuts. Another 9 or 10% took GB as I recall and also got whooped. I unfortunately took TB and the end of that game infuriated me.

Ah well, I only had 3 entries this year (my first survivor pool ever) and next year I hope to do much better with 10 entries and some strategic changes

How many entries did it start with?

It started with 13,072 entries. I'm tracking weekly stats so I have some valuable info to go off of next year to estimate the # of entries left after each week.

Here's what I have so far

Week 1: 7,281 remaining (44.3% of starting entries eliminated) (55.7% still in overall)
Week 2: 5,109 remaining (29.8% of week 1 survivors eliminated) (39.1% still in overall)
Week 3: 3,639 remaining (28.8% of week 2 survivors eliminated) (27.8% still in overall)
Week 4: 3,079 remaining (15.4% of week 3 survivors eliminated) (23.6% still in overall)
Week 5: 2,238 remaining (27.3% of week 4 survivors eliminated) (17.1% still in overall)
Week 6: 1,099 remaining (50.9% of week 5 survivors eliminated) (8.4% still in overall)

Each week the # of entries still alive drops by an average of 32.75%

based on this data, my estimation is the following # of entries will be alive at the end of each week:

Week 7 739
Week 8 497
Week 9 334
Week 10 225
Week 11 151
Week 12 102
Week 13 69
Week 14 46
Week 15 31
Week 16 21
Week 17 14
Week 18 9 WINNERS

Interesting data

I don't think you can just make a linear projection like that for a few reasons though. On one hand, as the year goes on, a lot of the high EV/FV teams are going to get burned up and many will find themselves in tough spots. Although on the other hand, this year has had a higher than expected elimination rate with underdogs winning and that could begin to normalize some as well.

the DK prize pool just a simple 13,072 x 100 to first?

People are going to be riding CAR hard with CMC gone, that team looks absolutely horrible.

Probably going with TB and NE this week with a couple LV. GL to all

Nitrobetting opened 3 midseason pools starting this week 7.

Being that I've already taken Tampa Bay in ALL entries but ONE, I'm very excited to see Tampa Bay up to -13.5. This will lower ownership on the teams I'm taking and it'll lead to HIGHER ownership on Kansas City in 10 & Baltimore & Minnesota in 13. I'm SAVEing all those teams team (mostly) till after 13, so I'm loving that. I'm not saying that Tampa Bay is a bad pick at all this week. I'll probably take Tampa Bay in the last entry I have them available, but I'll be ok since I have ALL Baltimore, Kansas City & Philadelphia available in that entry. If you don't have one of those, consider not taking Tampa Bay this week. If you don't have two of them, don't take them.

As we progress deeper into the season, the statistical error drops as more data becomes available. I'm curious to see how close the projections match actual results for each week. If I'm within a 10% statistical error, I'd be happy with that.

Prize is $1,228,768.
DK keeps 6%

In the brand new one I'm playing it safe and burning up TB.