What a boss

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Rep...-UFC-149-43331

Sees couple being attacked by 10 people, helps out, chases them off, catches one of them, leads to most of them being apprehended

Def gonna be cheering for Nick Ring in his next fight now

Hi gents, I'm brand new to MMA betting and am using a strategy based on analysis of odds movements. I have never intentionally watched a bout of MMA, nor will I probably ever.

For UFC on FX3 I have (odds are approximate as I've bet at various odds over different bookmakers):

McCall 2.29 2.5u
Pyle 1.55 2.5u
Hecht 1.63 1u
Grice 2.35 1u
Papazian 1.70 1u
Martinez 1.47 1u
Salas 2.12 0.75u

Look any good? I don't even know who these guys are, lol.

Here is a bizarre little story that you may or may not find interesting (totally unrelated to MMA but relative to a poster ITT).

About 5 days ago I posted in this thread stating that I'd been lurking it and really enjoyed the interesting opinions share by the regs here. I also said that SwoopAE's predictions for the last ufc were amazing and I was looking forward to his predictions (preminitions perhaps would be more appropriate) for ufc 148.

Skip to tonight I'm playing a gig at my sisters' restaurant. I get to talking to a girl who works there (we've chatted a bit previously) and she asks why I have so much spare time to be doing gigs at the restaurant so often. I reluctantly told her I was a professional poker player and she swiftly replies 'my brother does that'.

As always, I rolled my eyes. But for some reason, instead of dismissing it or vaguely asking 'what exactly he does', I asked what his screenname was.

To my absolute disbelief the reply was 'SwoopAE'. I stood completely in shock and explained to her about this thread. I'm still a little in shock as in my 3 years as a pro player I've only met 1 legitimate poker pro by coincidence.

Hope you enjoyed and I'm not even watching the UFC on FX this week (first one I've missed since I started watching UFC: Penn vs. Sherk) as I don't know any of the fighters

Nothing too shameful here. Mind going a little further into how your analysis works? We ended up on some of the same guys, I'm curious to know how exactly you got there.

Late additions with props...Jorgenson by dec +117 and Pierce by dec -114.

Martinez won first round, scored second 10-10, who judges will score it for is anyone's guess...

30-28 Martinez? Idk but that fight was awful. Yeesh.

Feel like odds were about on in that fight, not as much value as I thought.

Mike Pierce. Book It.

I agree.

Roberts look laughably better than Magalhaes, glad I threw him in a few parlays with fighters I picked ITT (based on some tweets from smoogy of BloodyElbow scouting report).

Gah first loss Papazian, he was lookin good on the feet before getting tripped into mount -_-

Biggest fights for me tonight are Pierce and Jorgenson though. May put a small hedge on Wineland if Pierce wins, as Jorg will be last fighter in a few parlays.

Getting a bit crushed so far. Hopefully McCall comes through.

It's nothing too complicated, I'm just tailing line movements. Like if a fighter opens at 1.80 and comes in to 1.60, I get on him. You would think this means that all the value has disappeared, but historically this is not the case. Bet sizing is based on a sweet spot of line movement, i.e. enough that it constitutes a reasonable amount of money coming down on the fighter, but not so much that a lot of the value is gone. Also how short the line is matters in my bet sizing, obv.

Historically this probably just works because it crowdsources MMA knowledge but it probably also doesn't hurt that it gets you on every fixed bout, since I'd be pretty shocked if there isn't a fair bit of fixing going on.

This is an interim strategy I'm using before hopefully developing a more data driven approach.

Mike Pierce doin it right. 20-18 baby keep it up.

As I said, lock. -225 was a bargain.

Gonna watch the main card in an hour or two, be back for dissection then.

In the years I've been following MMA, I've heard very few fix accusations coming out of the UFC. Other orgs, yes, but not the UFC. Am I naive to think it's not going on much if at all?

Possibly you are right. As I said I don't know anything about MMA in particular. I tend to assume there is some level of fixing going on in sports when salaries are not that high and the sport is easily fixed (i.e. not that many people have to be in on the fix).

Yeah I get the same a lot slowlane where the 'poker pro' in question is down 10k over 2000 microstakes tournaments or whatever. PM'd you if you want to chat or w/e

Anyway, broke even on this card roughly, Silva came through, the Papazian tip not so much, but meh. Prob shoulda put more on Silva but Brenneman was looking okay until Silva got the offense in so it was probably a -230/+230 line or so based on what I saw if they were to fight again

Silva is going to fight for the title in the next 5 years though a HUGE % of the time as he matures as a fighter

Was disappointed in McCall, I expected more from him but it was a smaller bet anyway.

Why would you be disappointed? Solid performance from McCall, I had it 29-28 DJ but it was a closely contested fight and I would love to see those two fight every time out.

Bets went decent for this card with only Papazian and Jorgenson losing, though Jorgenson certainly hurt. He def looks like a candidate to drop to 125, Wineland was far bigger and stronger.

Shogun is way better at everything than Vera. He's gonna be a huge fav in this fight.

I highly doubt there's much fixing at all in MMA for several reasons. Mostly, there's not enough money being bet on MMA to justify it. MMA is a VERY niche sport for bettors. The money you'd have to bet to make fixing a reasonable economic choice would massively stick out like a sore thumb.

Both of them are high level muay thai guys, but I do think Shoguns chin is better and if he comes in good shape, I'll have to go with him, but Vera isn't to be underestimated.

Vera just got clipped and nearly subbed by Eliot Marshall. No thanks.

I hope Machida can beat Bader then Shogun 3 and find his way back to a rematch with Jones. Only LHW fighter who has given Jones any real trouble so far. I still think he's the #2 LHW in the world on talent alone

Will be interesting to see where Pearson closes vs Swanson. I can't see him losing that unless he somehow gets taken down and subbed. Will definitely get on it if he gets below -200

Also at 147, hard to see Daniel Sarafian losing the MW TUF Brazil final, might bet him depending who he's facing and what the odds are. He should beat Bodao or Mutante though.

Hoping the Pinnacle line comes out soon on Big Nog vs Kongo, it's probably the next line i'm going to hammer.

Didn't they already leak the winners of that?

The finalists maybe, I haven't seen them though so no spoilers please.

The finale is live at UFC 147 so unless it's a Pac/Bradley joke, no, they didn't leak the winners since it hasn't happened yet

Well, that then but meh

lol at machida beating shogun. I mean yea maybe if the get the same ******s that judged the first fight.

Machida would prolly beat him at this point...Shogun looks to be deteriorating pretty alarmingly. Don't think I'll touch him against Vera even though thats an insanely winnable fight for him.