Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
I'm willing to do $100 on Kim and $20 on Silva if you want the action. Let me know and it's booked along with our rousey/cain bet (that was with you right)
I think 20-1 seems fine on DHK, Kim's roughly at evens vs Woodley, then probably +200 to +250 in his next fight vs I assume whoever doesn't get a title shot out of Rory or Lombard then about 50/50 to get a title shot after that and say +300 vs Lawler, Hendricks or the other of Rory/Lombard or GSP in a title fight. If he wins the Woodley fight he's at #5, if Lawler loses to Hendricks he's out for the foreseeable future, if he wins that hurts my bet though. If Saffiedine beats Rory he could theoretically jump the queue but that eliminates Rory as a contender so thats fine. I think Kim is slightly over 50% to get a title shot if he wins his next two and close to 100% if he wins his next three. He estimated his chance of beating Lombard at 30-35% from memory and he strikes me as a guy who gives honest analysis and does believe he can win even if he's not going to be the favourite.
Silva I just feel like if he can sort out his cardio he still arguably has the best offense at 170 he just needs to sort out his defense and cardio and he had some sort of nasal surgery from memory that might help so who knows - 60-1 seems about fair because a) he's probably just going to keep losing to elite guys and b) he'll have to probably win 5-7 straight to get a title shot and I guess c) no one wants to lay 60-1 unless it's +EV which I admit it probably is to fade me here
My $2,000 vs your $100. If Kim loses once before winning a title I win. If he wins a title without losing you win.
Considered it booked if you want