Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris M
Placing 1u on Sarafian/Mendez under 2.5r +105.
Anyone catch Sarafian at the opener of -260 or whatev?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Is Mendez terrible or something? I was really disappointed in Sarafian against Dollaway although he is way better than that fight suggests i'd guess. He should go to WW though.
I wasn't able to find a ton of info on Mendez, but what's out there isn't that impressive. His best win is a split decision on a Strikeforce undercard against Fernando Gonzalez, whom I'd never heard of before but seems to be a 20-10 journeyman. Here's Mendez's TUF audition tape from 2010:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-ksJRZV4m4
Most of the fight footage is Mendez looking gassed showing some sloppy kickboxing against a human punching bag....I think the opponent is Lee Chapman, who's got a 5-8 record.
So yeah, I think -400ish is accurate for Sarafian, and generally speaking really lopsided fights are more likely to end via finish when the favorite tends to finish fights. Add in with this the fight is in Brazil, and I like the under at plus anything.