Tell me about it, really thought they mispriced that line(and they did), Holloway has a really fluent standup game, is scrappy, and usually above average active on the feet so he scores often good on judges score card. Bermudez is alright, but he's nothing special imo. Retrospect, holloway and Roop where best bets.

My little sister has more of a chance than Bigfoot against Cain.

Cain/Cormier vs Big Foot is like the worst matchup ever for big foot. I think Big Foot should be around rank 10, and not 4th. He's too slow for fighters of Cains, Cormiers, JDS caliber. Though, all those guys will pretty much destroy anyone in the division so doesn't really say that much about him.

This did pop into my brain also about supporting fighters, you can often see at the post fight pressers/interviews how overwhelmed the lower tier fighters are with their bonuses.

Why should he take him down when he can crush him standing?

Looking at lines for fuel 10. I don't really like any of the available bets.

I agree hoping there will be some value spots in the Prelims, however ufc 161 should be a betting mans dream... I'm super excited for that one. Ufc 162/ufc on fox 8 should be good aswel.

REALLY looking forward to Barry/Jordan, two big heavyweights that just seem like fun and want to please the fans. Considering a unit on Barry, Jordan hasn't done anything spectacular thus far (except the fact he can backflip).

Out of the lines available, rashad/shogun/Barry/shields all have pretty good value.

Also very interested in Nelson/sexton/vallie-Flagg/jimmo... I have high hope for this card, as a fan, and money wise.

What do you guys think the wiedman/silva lines will be once we start getting to the day of the fight?

i'm on rashad shogun and barry already and intend to add shields, will do that now actually

silva -400ish

I'm like Swoop, on Shogun, barry and leaning Rashad, but not sure just yet. Fight feels like such a flip, no idea which Rashad is coming. I've always thought Rashads standup was overrated. He was getting beat by guys like Forrest, Liddell until he TKO'D/KO'd them, and I don't think any of those guys have better standup than Hendo. I know his standup has improved a lot, but still I don't see it. He's way too afraid to get hit and just stands on the outside pawing away with his cat jabs.
People saying, he's going with a better gameplan, why the **** didn't he do that vs Nog?

If we get a motivated rashad (which after such an embarrassing loss I expect to see) he wins this 75% of the time.

If we get the same rashad from the nog fight, he still wins around 33% of time.. Remember that dec could have gone either way with nog.

So if my 75% and 33% are accurate (which I think they are) and rashad shows up motivated 70% of the time.. He wins this 62.4%.. which is value for -110.

Think shogun is by far the best bet of the lines available for any card. -160 is practically stealing money from the books.

I give Cain an edge in the standup but I don't think it's a whitewash at all.

Re: Rashad/Hendo, Evans should have a big edge in the grappling vs Hendo. Shields took that man down at will. How the hell could that decision have gone either way with Nog though? I mean with standard horrible judges sure but Nog clearly won that.

^ maybe I remember wrong. I had a bunch on rashad and may have just been trying to make excuses for why he could win. I just remember thinking it could go either way.

Yep, I already have 9.5u on that card, and the Shields fight especially:

4u Shields avg around +155
3.5u Shields/Woodley o2.5r +125
1u Hendo +100
1u Barry/Jordan u1.5r -110

Shields/Hendo was a 5 rounder @ 185 though, and I believe there were rumors that Hendo had a bad weight cut as well. I don't really know which way that fight will go but thought it was worth mentioning. Rashads chin makes me lean a little towards Hendo though.

Doubt Rashad can KO Hendo, didn't think he could KO Lidell too though and look what happened lol.

Rashad will be conservative, looking to outpoint Henderson for 3rds.
He probably will be playing it too safe and not really use his superior athleticism. Hendo will be his usual sniper self, looking to land the H-bomb. Locked and loaded ready to launch the overhand. Figure Rashad will be circling to Hendo's left most of the time.

This fight is Rashad's to lose. His technique and speed is there but I don't think he can pull the trigger. After his fight vs Rampage, I legit thought he was the real deal. Not anymore though, don't think he has enough WIM in him. Even in the Jones fight he kinda admitted that in the later rounds all he was hoping for was not to get finished to save face.

I'd snap take a hungry Rashad but in this fight, I'd much rather bet on the underdog. In pretty much a pickem fight.
He's not as elusive as Machida and can't brawl like Shogun.

But Hendo has lost to Shields, Rampage, old, slow and looked so average in the Machida fight. Still I think all the caution with Rashad's style might make Henderson a decent underdog bet. The judges might see that Hendo is more of the aggressor with haymakers, Rashad running away and give Hendo the boring actionless round.

Decided not to bet Shields yet after all, still not sure whether I will. Mostly because I want to cheer against him because of the roids and association with the Cesar Gracie camp

Just got shields at +165 and shogun -160

Do you guys think -130 is a good price for Barry?

This has to be bet of the night!

Blanket vs blanket and both have decent chins and sub defense

Yeah +125 is way off imo, I think the over hits at least 65% of the time. I mentioned it on this forum when it opened, and no one seemed to care

Then again, I think that fight is a pick 'em, yet the Shields line continues to get better, so what do I know.

I think the line as it stands is close to fair. For that fight I'll be looking to take Barry by tko +130 or better, Jordan by decision +350 or better.

Don't see this one going all 3 rounds.