What makes you think he can take down machida when he couldn't with Evans?

Is Evans easy to TD? Has anyone ever taken him down? Don't recall even Jon Jones taking him down. You go five with Jon without getting taken down, that says a lot.

Machida lasted one full round with Jon before seeing the canvas. That's pretty good, but the moment it went there the fight swayed big time.

Machida's TDD is really good, no question. Flip side is, Davis has taken down every opponent he's faced short of Evans. Pretty sure he's the only guy to take Gustaffson down.

Possible that Evans' TDD is superior to Machida's?

If Machida can sleep walk his way into a loss -v- Rampage, he can do the same here. We've seen more than once, if you don't charge Machida, he will stand there looking at his opponent for minutes at a time. Even if Davis just presses him against the cage a lot he could snake this decision.

Another tidbit. Davis has beaten a Brazilian in Brazil before. Not unfamiliar territory for him.

I don't think using what happened in the Jones/Machida fight, will help at all when trying to find the proper bet. Also in no way could Davis beat him in the way rampage beat him. (not to mention that fight isn't really a fair comparison of how good Machida is either)

Machida has also avoided having fights hit the mat vs Rashad (who proved himself as a better mma wrestler vs Davis) and the only time he ended up on his back vs Olympic wrestler Dan Henderson was when he slipped... hell we saw Henderson on his back...and to top that off Davis had a hard time with taking nog down.

Odds are high, but this is clearly the lowest variance bet of all the lines currently out. Davis has one way to win this fight, and no way to get the fight there.

If you don't have an ounce of offense, you got dominated.

WRT to Jones/Machida/Evans, first off Jones didn't need to bother with takedowns against Evans and he knew it. He had him outclassed on the feet. Second, Machida beat Rampage if you can competently judge a fight.

i'm not betting this card for various reasons, but i'll chime in that even machida -400 (representing a 80% shot) has some value.

there's just no path to victory for davis unless something really amazing happens. i'd call his chances 10% at best, probably more like 5%.

Fair, Davis didnt look overly impressive vs the low level striking of vinny.

I like davis by submission +1300

All of his finishes in UFC were by sub and Machida just lost to Jones via Guillotine and he's another fighter who uses more wrestling than traditional BJJ for his subs.

Obviously I'm not saying it's going to happen but I feel at +1300 it's pretty good value

If they fought 10 times I'd expect Davis to sub him once

if you're looking for a degen underdog bet, i think i like the zombie +600 more than davis +320ish tbh.

though i would imagine both bets are probably -ev

It's the +1300 rather than a +320 that interests me and feel pretty sure it's +EV at that level.

i think the parlay of events that would have to occur in order to give machida his first submission loss to anyone who's not arguably the greatest p4p fighter in the sport today is going to be significantly less than 1/14 to come in.

i mean if he is able to get taken down at least once during the fight 1/3 of the time and then gets subbed when down 1/5 of the time, you're already at 1/15 and that's very optimistic, imo.

davis is a strong prospect, but he doenst have the talent, experience, or raw power of bones - and machida is just too high level of a gamer to fall into this kind of trap any reasonable amount of time. Especially when you consider that in order for machida to be able to be subbed he'd have to be pretty roughed up and out of it already, and the chances of him getting outstruck in any manner are slim to none.

You think he gets taken down in the fight just 1/3 of the time? I'd happily take $50 at evens that Machida is taken down at least once? (if rules here allow, Mods feel free to delete)

I'm not saying it's likely but when you have a fighter who can be submitted by a stronger wrestler fighting a wrestler that has only finished fights with submissions +1300 seems a good spot for a very small bet.

perhaps i overestimated machida's tdd or underestimated davis' rasslin.

i guess if it's a small bet for fun it's not the worst bet i can think of...yet i have a very, very hard time picturing any path to it actually happening. in my mind it feels like a lot less than 1/14, but i suppose there are so many variables it's hard to quantify.

but since i didnt bet the fight, best of luck all the same.

There's no way Machida is gonna get subbed by Davis. He can grapple quite a bit himself. Bones is just a physical monster, totally diff story there.

1u parlay on Aldo/Machida

Decided against putting a small bet on Davis

It's an interesting one, I feel Davis has a better chance to sub him than his previous 5/6 opponents (jones excluded).

We also have age potentially playing a factor in this fight where Davis each fight should be getting closer to his peak and Machida moving away from his (I feel 2008/9 with Evans and Tito were his best performances).

Added another 4.8u on moraes at -120 I really think he matches up well with magny also added .2 on Jung not because I think he's the guy necessarily but because I think Aldo loses soon and don't want to miss it when he does and the price is good anyone care to do a breakdown on moraes vs magny?

After some very quick research Moraes vs Magny

Moraes: 6ft, World level BJJ and teaches BJJ at Black horse so great training partners. Dropped from MW to WW before last fight and won that one. Was also KO'd in TUF by Sarafian by knee (not on official record).

Magny: 6,3" (big for WW) has a couple of KO's early in his career but likely will go to decision at this level. As well as the sub loss on his record also has KO loss on TUF.

Gut feeling is take the Brazilian in Brazil, especially as he teaches at Black horse.

I think best bet though is fight goes to decision +105 neither have much KO power looking at their records and subs are always more difficult

btw

Lineker missed weight by 3 pounds and refused to try and drop any more in the 2 hours given.

Not a good sign

lol???

Guy has looked excellent every outing for the last 5 years. Do you have anything to base this on or are you just hating like usual when it comes to Aldo lol

Gone for some strange bets this time
Davis by sub .3U +1000
Aldo round 3 .2U +650
Aldo round 4 .2U+800 (I like Aldo 3-4 as TKZ is tough and I think these are the rounds he has highest chance of getting the stoppage)
Tome round 1 .2U +1000
Tome decision .5U +700 (miss click)
Tome ITD .5U +500
Morales decision .5U +400
Santos decision .5U +450

In depth breakdown of Lineker vs Tome especially relevant as Lineker couldn't make weight http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2013/8/1/...ome-dissection

More plays:
1u Lineker/Tome under 2.5r -120
0.5u Ferreira/Santos goes distance +165
0.5u Machida by decision +115

Also planning on adding more to Leites/Watson goes distance, which has since moved to +115 on 5d's, just waiting to see if it continues to get better.

Glad I got time early with lonelier missing eight always nice to have a +370 dog in that spot. Kz is pure degen bet hence the size but I think Aldo lost to Edgar in a fight that Congo either way and it was Edgar's worst performance in a while lid he lost a round to florian gassed and lost a round to hominick borderline gassed vs Edgar and cheated grabbing the fence to go from losing r1 to mendes to getting a r1 tko. Personally I think whoever gets another shot first of mendes and Edgar and Pettis will be the one to beat Aldo but Kz is capable and has heart and cardio so +600 region is tempting I think it's break even or so

Sigh autocorrect lineker obv

Looking at weighins magny was his usual lanky self but moraes seemed to have added upper body strength which should help with clinches and takedowns and he showed vs mutante he can trade shots with a bigger stronger better striker than magny. Basically I think magny can only win via decision standing and moraes can either do the same mixing in takedowns or he can lnp or get the sub factor in Brasilian judges if its a close dec and I really like moraes at -120. Moraes and machida are my big plays this card is like more on Andrade too but would need to watch a lot of his fights to confidently bet him as opposed to fading marunde

Aldo lost to Edgar only if you cant score fights well. Aldo lost a round to Florian if you you think Couture beat Vera (he didn't, holding someone on the fence isn't worth anything if you arent' doing anything). He showed great cardio against Edgar, since he won Rd 5.

Mendes is the only real threat to Aldo and he's already been KO. Aldo has already stopped the no. 2 and 4 guys in the division per Sherdog and beat up your boy Edgar 49-46, who by the way, might be a pound for pound top 10 fighter. Stop hating and give the man his due lol

Aldo 100% beat Edgar,

However I think the new Mendes with better stand-up should decision Aldo and Pettis would beat him (poss KO) due to similar skillset and larger size. TKZ just doesn't have the tools here to stand a chance.

I'm hoping Aldo vs Mendes next as lines for Mendes will be much better than lines for Pettis.