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02-12-2013 , 02:39 AM

#8201

notserp

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Posts: n/a

cain vs silva again i think its to soon

Quote

02-12-2013 , 02:43 AM

#8202

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

In before Cain -800

Werdum/Cain is a way better fight

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02-12-2013 , 03:05 AM

#8203

just_mo

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Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Makes way more sense too. Dude got embarrassed mere months ago I mean what's changed

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02-12-2013 , 03:13 AM

#8204

SwoopAE

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Just bet 2u on Barao, Grispi, Poirier and Sass, 1u on Nedkov

Will add more on Grispi and Poirier maybe, i'm not sure yet. Possibly Barao too. If the Poirier/sub, Sass/sub lines are attractive I may do some props too, I expect one of the two of them to sub their opponent more often than not so if I can get +400 or so on both i'll bet both for the sweat

Quote

02-12-2013 , 06:51 AM

#8205

SwoopAE

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4/5 lines have moved in my favour since I bet them on Pinn with Barao staying the same... hopefully I got on at the right price

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02-12-2013 , 01:49 PM

#8206

just_mo

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Just saw Mendes vs Guida. Mendes should be like -400 here but I bet he's only like -275.

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02-12-2013 , 03:05 PM

#8207

stressed

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,409

Wow. I'm probably the only one but if Guida is at that price. I love it!
No way he's that much of a dog.

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02-12-2013 , 03:51 PM

#8208

just_mo

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Mendes is better at basically everything. Better striker, more power, better athlete, better wrestler. Submission grappling is a wash I guess? I mean I just don't see anything Guida can do to Mendes.

People just aren't realizing how good this guy is for some reason. Rewatched the Aldo fight the other day and that fence-grab had zero impact on the long term results of that fight IMO (Aldo had already defended like 6 takedowns with ease) so he's not beating Aldo and I'd be fairly confident in picking Edgar over him but I don't see anyone else at FW beating Mendes.

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02-12-2013 , 06:05 PM

#8209

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

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02-12-2013 , 11:20 PM

#8210

aggy

banned

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 545

Are Bellator prelims ever lined anywhere?

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02-13-2013 , 12:05 AM

#8211

anteatereater

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,977

is this a betworthy rogue line?

doug marshall (vs spang - bellator 89).

i see that four books have odds of +250, +250, +265 and +350. is the +350 automatically betworthy?

thanks

Quote

02-13-2013 , 02:27 AM

#8212

notserp

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by elliot10181

Rumours of JDS vs Overeem and Cain vs Silva for UFC 160 May 25th.

Hopefully true!

its booked damn didnt think they make it that soon the rematch

Quote

02-13-2013 , 02:51 AM

#8213

anteatereater

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,977

Quote:

Originally Posted by anteatereater

is this a betworthy rogue line?

doug marshall (vs spang - bellator 89).

i see that four books have odds of +250, +250, +265 and +350. is the +350 automatically betworthy?

thanks

the rogue line has corrected slightly, so now it's -475/+325 and the supposed sharp lines are -350/+250, -350/+250 and -335/+265.

i'm getting these lines from http://www.bestfightodds.com/

so if i run the numbers through a no-vig calculator i get:

-475/+325 novigs to -351/+351 or ~22% chance of underdog winning

-335/+265 novigs to -281/+281 or ~26% chance of underdog winning

does that mean the rogue bet has ~4% edge over the other bet?

how much edge do i need?

EDIT: or does the +325 just need to beat the +281?

thanks

Last edited by anteatereater; 02-13-2013 at 02:57 AM.

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02-13-2013 , 03:33 AM

#8214

Swiiftx

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Quote:

Originally Posted by notserp

its booked damn didnt think they make it that soon the rematch

Well that sucks but I guess everyone else is tied up. HW isn't as packed as I thought.

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02-13-2013 , 05:29 AM

#8215

SwoopAE

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Time to mash the Cain opening line if it's better than -400

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02-13-2013 , 06:49 AM

#8216

SwoopAE

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Alternatively, Cain + JDS parlay @ evens or thereabouts seems like a good play vs Bigfoot/Reem

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02-13-2013 , 07:17 AM

#8217

Swiiftx

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After seeing reem fold under pressure to a guy like Big foot Silva I'm hoping on the bandwagon that he crumbles way more often to a guy like JDS who has 10x the speed and power of Big Foot. Though it's a HW fight so Reem will get the KO/TKO a fair amount of the time as well with JDS unorthodox stance. But def lean towards JDS getting the better of him most of the time.

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02-13-2013 , 03:42 PM

#8218

grumpy64

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Don't feel as strongly about reem as i did before the silva fight but at +200 or better i would bet him for sure

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02-13-2013 , 04:45 PM

#8219

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

so sad he lost to big foot like that.. was thinking of the amazing lines you could get on him vs cain or JDS if he just won that fight.

Quote

02-13-2013 , 05:38 PM

#8220

luckproof

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swiiftx

+1 But I think a "fair amount of time" might be a little generous after seeing the way both of them handle adversity in the ring. Even though Cain and Reems MO's are totally different I think JDS should have a huge mental edge here. Wouldn't be surprised if Reem looked really uncomfortable when they square off.

Quote

02-13-2013 , 05:54 PM

#8221

just_mo

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Quote:

Originally Posted by yoyobo

so sad he lost to big foot like that.. was thinking of the amazing lines you could get on him vs cain or JDS if he just won that fight.

Quote

02-13-2013 , 06:08 PM

#8222

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

I'm wondering if Reem will be back on the juice for this fight.

If he comes in looking soft JDS will crush him, I still like Reem if he's on the juice so won't bet until the weighin.

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02-13-2013 , 07:37 PM

#8223

just_mo

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Juice ain't gonna help him when he gets punched in the nose.

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02-13-2013 , 07:57 PM

#8224

luckproof

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

Mendes is better at basically everything. Better striker, more power, better athlete, better wrestler. Submission grappling is a wash I guess? I mean I just don't see anything Guida can do to Mendes.

People just aren't realizing how good this guy is for some reason. Rewatched the Aldo fight the other day and that fence-grab had zero impact on the long term results of that fight IMO (Aldo had already defended like 6 takedowns with ease) so he's not beating Aldo and I'd be fairly confident in picking Edgar over him but I don't see anyone else at FW beating Mendes.

Have to disagree here, that fence grab was pretty huge in that it save him from getting slammed on his back and possibly controlled for the rest of the round. How a ref doesn't take a point there is beyond me. You shouldn't be able nullify a potentially huge offensive maneuver by blatantly cheating and have there be no consequences.

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02-13-2013 , 08:04 PM

#8225

just_mo

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There was only like 40s left in the round I think but that wasn't really the point. Point was even if he concedes that takedown, that's 6 out of 7 defended or something. Small sample size sure but if he is going to defend them at that rate, he's never losing.

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