I wouldn't say he was impressive, but i think he matches up well against Lee. He came in on super late notice and really wasn't expected to win. He was able to get Caceres down a couple times and get to side control. He ended up losing a split decision though.

Tezuka is basically a grappler and i think his grappling is probably better than Lee. Tezuka is a BJJ brown belt and Judo black belt. On the feet Lee probably has the advantage but hes pretty wild with his striking which could make him susceptible to takedowns. Also Tezuka's never been KO'd and has a pretty solid chin from what I recall.

But yea, maybe around +175 to +200

Lol was sort of thinking the same thing, he was a bit gassed though and silva does have a pretty good/underrated bjj game himself.

Ended up doing 2u on him at + 105, guess I won't know until fight night if it was a good bet.

Also got 0.75u on riddle at +190 and 2u on renan at -320

Gomi Sanchez odds are out

Oh yeah Silva is a solid overall grappler himself, don't get me wrong. He can do everything pretty well when it comes to that part of the game. I'm just saying no self respecting BJJ black belt is just gonna get arm triangled like that.

The submission was more conditioning than anything.

here is the nedkov vs luiz cane fight. iirc this was the first ufc event in brazil in over a decade, and all the brazilians were super-motivated and overachieving. luiz cane was winning until he got nailed 4-minutes into the fight. this fight was at LHW and nedkov looked undersized.

http://mmaversus.com/2011/08/28/luiz...video-ufc-134/

here is the nedkov vs thiago silva fight. nedkov is undersized here too. this fight result was later changed to a NC, because silva popped for marijuana.

http://mmaversus.com/2012/11/10/thia...on-fuel-macao/

thanks anteat, missed your earlier post with Watson's fights/Nedkovs ground credentials.

going to watch all 3 of the fights you linked now

interesting that watson's 5-round battle against reid took place just 15 days after watson lost 30–26, 30–26, 30–26 to jesse taylor (in sept 2010).

i wonder how long watson has been at tri-star.

After watching those fights im very confident with nedkov.

their striking is actually going to be pretty close, with the slight edge to Watson. Nedkov has some heavy hands though, that lead to a good chance of a KO.

Nedkov also controlled a much bigger Thiago Silva quite well against the cage, and should have no problem doing it vs Watson. His TD's did look pretty horrid, but once again, he was facing a much bigger fighter.

overall Nedkov can KO Watson/Grind out a dec on the cage/grind out a dec with TD's (assuming they are better at MW). also there is a good chance he rocks Watson atleast once in the fight, this will give him an extra round on his route to a decision...and maybe a Sub if he gets lucky (Watson did give up his back WAY WAYWAY to easily in his last fight)

Nedkov should win this 2/3 times, making the true odds -150 (i think) so +105 is amazing value (probably best of the card) i think im going to add a 3rd unit on, maybe even a 4th if some people start to agree with me.

I did expect Nedkov to be a fav and was thinking I might play Watson as the dog, but if Nedkov is the dog or at evens I guess I lean slightly towards him

He was training at Tri-star for those fights, I think from memory he had been there for a year or so.

hopefully Sanchez gets down to -200 or something so I can bet him, not going to lay -308 though even though he should walk through Gomi

Ya I don't see Gomi stopping takedowns here so...

Grispi is a small dog (+105) now. Lots of people are on Ogle, gone from +170 to -145.

does anyone know: do fighters tend to do well when they know a loss will result in them being cut from the UFC? grispi has lost three straight, and he is only 24 years old, so either way his career won't be over, but his UFC career is clearly on the line.

that has to be a huge motivation, right?

okay, thanks. so there no reason to expect some sudden increase in skill like what sometimes happens when someone switches to a better camp.

If it keeps going i'll fade the steam hard like I did on Barry over SDR

No way is Andy Ogle a fav over Grispi imo,

Ya give me Grispi as a dog for sure.

Indeed, Ogle looked so ridiciously bad on the tuf season and whilst it was a 50/50 fight between him and akira, it doesnt say much since akira is a bottom level fighter(sucks to say it since I'm from sweden as well) who probably won't be around that much in the UFC. I'm saying this without even havin seen Josh Grispi fight, but he has to be a lot better than Ogle, I mean his 3 last fights have been against credible competition, especially Dustin who is a top contender and yaha who is a top notch grappler, so no shame in those losses except that they mean he's not top 10.

First play: Castillo (-105) 2u.

just_mo i'll book your action on castillo up to 200 or so if you haven't done it yet and want it vig-free since i like sass, lmk, we can just split the difference between the best lines on sass and castillo available, although if you're in the US (i forget) paypal fees may just eat the savings anyway

I feel like i'll be going heavy on Grispi, Poirier and moderate on Barao and Nedkov and Sass at this stage

Ya I'm US. Already played it anyways.

Trying to figure out which way Grispi line is going to move. Think I'd still play him at -125 but disappointed I missed out on plus money.

Same, until the line movement starts to reverse itself i'll wait

Rumours of JDS vs Overeem and Cain vs Silva for UFC 160 May 25th.

Hopefully true!