I scored both Henderson fights for Edgar. I realize I'm in the minority in the first fight and I did feel Henderson was the "better" fighter, I just think Edgar squeaked out 3 of the rounds by the slimmest of margins where Henderson dominated the rounds he won.

Thoughts on betting edgar at +180 and aldo by KO/TKO +180 to essentially get -120 for anything but Aldo by dec, sub or draw.

Think Aldo wins a decision a decent amount, I mean Edgar is one of the toughest out there. That Aldo TKO prop is up to +180 tho? Been hoping to get that at +200 looks like it might get there...

Would you say bendo dominated those rounds enough to get 10-8

Not IMO.

K-1 fights only serve one purpose to me; it show me a skillset. Obviously i take Reems skills into considerations.

But to say "because he did this in K-1 he will do this in mma" is completely false and simplistic. The technique is different, the rules are way different, there's the threat of takedowns, the padding on the gloves make it different both offensively and most certainly defensively. You can't block punches in mma like you do in boxing/kickboxing.

Could you imagine Werdum going 15 minutes with Overeem in a k-1 fight?

Could you imagine GSP being competitive with Askren in a wrestling match? Absolutely not. Yet Askren will be a huge underdog. If looking at only their wrestling game you could say Askren will take GSP down and use his dominant topgame to not get subbed. Will likely not happen.

but to each his own imo.


Going to bet Maia i think at current odds.

Also really like Edgar, but will wait to put more money on him until after the weigh in. Call me crazy but i think this could be considered bet of the year. I could look incredibly foolish saying this when Edgar gets KO'd in the first, but whatever!

Put a small bet on Bigfoot to hedge some of my Evans/Overeem parlay money.

Don't agree with backing Maia/Edgar but man...this guy gets it.

I'm considering backing Aldo by TKO but I would be pretty shocked if it's in round 1...I'm thinking more of an accumulation of damage type of deal. Besides, Aldo seems to have taken up Anderson's "take the first 3 minutes of the first round as slow as possible approach."

I quite fancy Edgar winning this one too.

Anybody have some good feelings about Fight Of the Night. KO Of The Night/ Submission?

We don't get so much coverage of UFC in England. 10 of the fighters are familiar to me but the lower down matches on the card I haven't much of a clue.

There is some big prices at the bookies here particularly for Submission of the night so if any of the under card guys are submission experts could you let me know? Damian Maia used to win all his fights by submission he is 6/1.

How do you guys see Edgar winning? He'd have to win on the cards and beat Aldo striking and hey I give Edgar all the credit in the world, the guy has game, can hang tough, etc. but Aldo is so nasty and not many soft spots in the stand up. Edgar is going to look messy at the end of this fight and Aldo clean (hey-- appearance influence judges!), I just don't see how he wins. Will be interesting if Edgar takes a ground attack angle, I can't recall many fights (I will confess this is pure memory I did not look back to refresh facts) where Aldo had to fight on the ground for much of the fight.

Dunham wins by armbar - sub of the night!

To those who like Edgar, you can get him via unanimous dec at +410. This is the Edgar bet with the most value imo.

You do know that all the events are live on ESPN (including PPV) and all undercard fights are on FB or UFC.tv. I would wager we get the fights much cheaper than the US.

All fair. However, I don't Silva has a significant threat of scoring a TD and will look to strike with Reem. We have seen a much more mature, mentally improved version of Overeem over the last few fights (the victory lap prior to the Rogers fight, crushing his soul and this at a time when people thought Rogers gave Fedor a serious problem. Also, the controlled, managed game plan against Werdum and Brock, sticking with a different plan, managing the cage and winning the fights comfortably).

The serious weapon in this fight is the cross counter. Silva paws out a left hand a decent amount and is not (in any way) an accomplished striker. Overeem is and Silva presents a huge target, with little in the way of striking defense or transitional attacks to worry Overeem. I expect a crouched stance Overeem (to take away the TD), followed by stalking Silva and countering weak, pawing left hands with hard shots.


I also like Edgar and I think he might just finish Aldo late. I don't see a big shot but a gassed Aldo and Edgar landing lots of unanswered shots from top position.

Aldo has a flattering record currently and has shown a worrying lack of gas in two fights recently. Couple this with the long lay-off and Edgar's incredible motor and I think we may see a subdued Aldo being worn down by Edgar.

Alistair looked a bit pudgy at the weigh ins. This compared to how he usually looks fwiw. He's still a physical specimen.

Not 100% sure but i think Nog looked better than usual.

Kind of thinking about a bet on Mccall.


Edgar @ 144. Seriously think he could make 135 and be healthy.

Huge difference in Reem vs Lesnar fight, still looks strong but not as cut, still happy with my bet though.

Just got my ticket, if anyones going drop me a PM if you want to meet for a beer b4/after

Silva came up as a grappler and developed semi competent boxing along the way. I think there's a decent chance he tries to get this to the floor. As we saw in the Fedor fight, his top game is quite difficult to deal with, and I think if he got on top of Overeem he'd most likely finish him.

In the Fedor fight the emperor missed an incredible amount of shots. Any other night at least one of those 7-8 nasty power shots connects and its bye bye. Silva was like a sitting duck, not enough head movement and very very slow. The Reem will reign supreme.

reem is gona kill him, wont even be competitive

When Overeem wins it will not be competitive. He's going to crush Silva when he wins.

Overeem is a big favorite. I just kind of like Silva at current odds. Expect him to get crushed a good amount of times though.

Kinda annoying how Pinny never puts up the MMA parlays until last minute. (I've only got one book.. sigh)

Yeah this tilts the hell out of me

I might do a Dunham/Overeem/Edgar parlay if the price is right, or the three of them plus Woodley and Vaille-Flagg if I feel like gambling a bit.

Edgar could make BW and be competitive there I agree, would be weird because he'd be huge for the division, but probably average speed at best for BW, total opposite of him at LW

I think he could wrestle**** most guys at BW, as he'd be one of the strongest guys in the divison, and he'd probably have a lot of power too - I mean he finished Maynard and Maynard probably weighs 180. Would be totally different to Edgar's stick and move style at LW. I expect FW is the division he'll do best in though, even if he doesn't beat Aldo, there's no chance he loses to anyone else at FW except *maybe* Mendes but i'd favour Edgar heavily there so unless he gets totally dominated, I expect we'll see him fight Aldo a second time even if he loses (and I think he's a flip to win it this time and possibly even better assuming competent judging, Aldo's coming off a long layoff, and has lost rounds to Florian and Hominick and would have been down 10-9 to Mendes instead of r1 TKO if he hadn't grabbed the fence)

Basically, I don't think Aldo is top 4 p4p the way everyone else does. I actually think Cruz is better than Aldo p4p (along with Jones GSP Anderson).

lol...Aldo finishes people. Cruz wins split decisions. Look at their respective fights with Faber.

Fedor "missing shots" has nothing to do with the fact that a dude with a proven dangerous guard was able to do nada on his back when Silva got him to the ground. That's all the proof you need that Silva's top game is something Overeem should fear plenty.

I favor Overeem heavily here because he has power and Silva's chin is too vulnerable but if you don't think Overeem is in huge trouble if he gets taken down here, you're nuts.

I think this card has lots of value for the favorites

I take Edgar against pretty much everyone at LW and FW except Aldo. Aldo had no trouble with better wrestlers and doesn't have to worry about Edgar's power. Edgar's only hope is to survive first two rounds and hope Aldo gasses. Edgar's lead leg is in serious trouble this fight even if he lasts the first 2.

Evans Nog stays standing and Evans is sparring with guys who are much better strikers than Nog in every way twice a week

Reem's K1 fights are relevant I think, in this fight. He will have no concern of fast shoots from Silva. Silva can't take him down and Reem is underrated on the ground anyway. Reem likes to fight big slow guys. Silva's best attribute which is his size is nullified against Reem. Silva will try to survive first round and thinks reem will gas (people betting the under need to take this into consideration, and Reem can be a slow starter),then I don't know what Silva can do, clinch?

I like Fitch v Maia but not sure there is enough value in the line to bet it.

Of the picks i like, Dunham and Maia both looked better than expected at weighins imo, and Woodley slightly worse

Also Overeem being a bit doughy = off the roids imo for this camp at least, he should still beat Bigfoot, but I wouldn't be surprised if his 'physique' gets worse and worse if he really has quit taking roids after getting popped for them

Also to clarify about why I think Overeem's K1 fights are relevant. I wouldn't consider them relevant against a guy like Cain but do consider them relevant against guys like Dos Santos who won't shoot or clinch or Silva who can't shoot fast enough and will probably have a worse clinch than Overeem.