Aldo is gonna chop them legs

edgar isnt badly outsized for the first time if he doesnt get hurt in r1 I think he gets the decision unless corrupt judging a lot

Also if maia gets to plus 200... He did beat sonnen remember and sonnen is a bigger fitch

No, Sonnen isn't a bigger Fitch. Fitch actually has decent sub defense and he is half decent on his feet. Fitch should be easily able to outstrike him and keep it standing for most of the fight. And if not, Maia isn't known for a good gas tank and he may gas like Erick Silva did against Fitch.

Aldo still gonna be bigger than Edgar I would guess.

What Kingofkings said about Fitch. Dude has been subbed once in like 30 pro fights and it was when he was noob.

Has fitch ever faced a BJJ black belt like maia? Nope. Penn might be the best grappler he faced and Penn won the first 2 rounds before gassing - this is a 3 round fight not 5 remember and since Fitch will never finish Maia he HAS to win 2 rounds at a minimum

obviously the likelihood of that is high, hence fitch being the fav, but Maia has looked amazing at WW and Fitch simply hasn't in his last 3 fights, he nearly got choked out by Erick Silva and before that he got KO'd by Hendricks and would have lost 29-28 to BJ Penn if the judges had scored the final round 10-9 which happens occasionally in that spot (I had it as a draw too fwiw)

Honestly, I like Maia here at +200 or Fitch at evens. anywhere inbetween i'll stay away, but i'll be cheering hard for Maia and won't be at all shocked if he subs or even decisions Fitch.

Added a unit to win 1.9 on Edgar and 3.5 to win a unit on Overeem

If Overeem by TKO is better than -200 or Overeem in round 1 at evens i'll load up heavily on that, bigfoot is going down in a crumpled heap in round 1 unless having to stop taking steriods has totally destroyed reem's striking, bigfoot's last win was a fluke injury and other than beating a past his prime fedor by doctors stoppage when it was 19-19, he hasnt really beaten anyone good. Only minor worry is Overeem folding under pressure, but I doubt Bigfoot has the technical wrestling to get overeem to the ground and unload on him before he takes a big shot himself and when reem hurts him it's over

I'm torn on who I want to win out of Cain and reem, I think Cain should be able to gnp him but they're two of my least fav HWs (cain because he's a bit of a dick and has the worst tattoo in UFC history and reem because he's a roider). Either way, I hope JDS knocks the winner out once he gets another title shot.

Regarding edgar, I expect him to outwork Aldo in the championship rounds if he doesn't get hurt badly early, and possibly even if he does as he's shown in the maynard fights. Aldo's never fought anyone as well rounded as Edgar with that sort of gas tank (Mendes was the closest and that fight could have gone a lot differently if aldo hadn't grabbed the cage to prevent being taken down)

If I have to pick, i'd say Edgar wins 4 rounds to 1, and then the result is a split decision either way due to lolworthy incompetent judging in edgars fights in the past (edgar bendo 2 was one of the biggest robberies of the year last year) + this fight being in brazil

In any case, i'd take Frankie over anyone at FW or LW at +190, so his opponent doesn't matter, pretty sure only three people are capable of beating him in those two weight classes and that's Bendo Aldo and Maynard, and I lean Frankie over all three (he's 2-1 vs Maynard with the only finish and 1-1 vs Bendo imo with 2-0 edgar being closer to correct than 2-0 bendo)

The thing about the Penn/Fitch fight is that Penn had a massive advantage in the standup and used that to throw Fitch off the threat of a takedown, Maia doesn't have that advantage.

As for Maia's run so far at WW, you can't really count the Kim fight as a legit win. For the Story fight, it was a decent win but, I don't see Maia being able to take down Fitch against the cage like he did to Story as Fitch lives off working off or with the fence.

BJ is a better MMA grappler than Maia. He's subbed more high level fighters, probably due to being a way better overall athlete.

lol @ thinking Overeem is off juice.

Oh I think he's still juicing, just hoping he's cycled it correctly etc and it wont affect his perfomance, given I just dumped a few units on him to win a unit

also lol at penn being a better mma grappler than maia - did you see the way he got kim's back and story's straight away? kim was dead before the injury maia had his back

maia will only lose to wrestlers who use their wrestling defensively and have better striking than him - hendricks types for example or gsp or even ellenberger maybe. fitch's standup just isn't that good and if it stays standing it'll be close i think

maybe a newbie question but... if I bet on Overeem (or any fighter) and they win, and then their piss test comes back dirty (maybe a week later?) -> results in a no-contest... do I have to forfeit my winnings? On the flipside, if I lose a bet (and the winner is busted), under the same circumstances, do I get a refund on the bet?

No, the bet is cleared right after the fight, and no comission work can change it.

Pretty sure Fitch is going to out-MMA Maia and we're going to see a similar fight as the Maia-Weidman. Yeah, Maia is an awesome grappler, but Fitch is better than Story and kim. You can't also compare the BJ Penn/Silva fight to Maia. BJ Penn was able to completely baffle Fitch(and he has better takedowns than Maia) with his gameplan and Silva is so much more explosive than Maia and mixes his strikes with takedowns much better. He overwhelmed Fitch in the first round which is the reason he won 1st round, and would have r2, r3 if he would have the cardio. Add to that that Maia has weakish cardio, especially if he goes out like he did in the Mark Munoz fight where he was really aggressive and won the round but completelt faded in r2, r3. Also a lot of it depends on how well the weight cut goes, so that's another factor, whereas we know Fitch always comes prepared with a very good gas tank. Then we have the fact that Fitch has an awesome defensive submission game.
The people Maia sub usually don't have any really good BJJ credentials and I mean, how often do u see a good BJJ guy lose to another BJJ guy due to a neck crank? I'd say it rarely happens

For those of you on McCall - CagePotato just posted a video of McCall basically talking about all the **** going on in his life heading into this fight. Basically he's separated from his wife, is moving forward with a divorce and seems like he might have a lot of distractions.

Not saying its a complete reason to fade him, but consider this at least before backing him.

http://www.cagepotato.com/ian-mccall...ou-guys-video/ - for those interested

If you don't think BJ Penn is a better MMA grappler than Maia, I don't know what to tell you. That should be plain as day from looking at their results and their fights. I mean the guy took down Jon Fitch and had his back multiple times. Has dominated and subbed many more good grapplers than Maia in the past. Best guy Maia has subbed is....Jason MacDonald? lol.

Maia has shown good top control but against an adept wrestler and scrambler like Fitch I don't know how much that's going to help him. Only people he's really subbed (Sonnen, Story, Jensen, Herman long before he improved his BJJ a ton) have been non-BJJ guys and the only people he's really been able to control with his top game (Miranda, Grove) have been non-wrestlers. Fitch is neither.

Jason macdonalds jitz may not be michael jordan quality but it is far from " lol ".

No idea who is a better mma grappler.. Bj probably got a better topgame.
On the ground maia will get the best of fitch. I think he may even be able to take him down.

Dont think fitch is a great bet at current price, but to each his own.

Maias takedowns come in form of trips and throws, he can definitely takedown fitch but I just don't see him subbing him that often really. An as the fight goes on, his chances will diminish to take him down and then Fitch's overall MMA game will take over.

don't forget that maia is a lot bigger than penn.

Yea Fitch is a favorite, but i think the line looks very solid right now. Opening line was much better imo to get on.

Fitch got great bjj too. His sub defense is very good.

Ya Jason MacDonald has solid BJJ. But if that's your best submission win, you're going to have a hard time saying you're a better MMA grappler than BJ Penn.

Furthermore, the way their styles of grappling match up also favors Fitch, since Maia is definitely more of a top game guy and he's up against a better wrestler and scrambler.

Bj best sub is vs Hughes, who was a beast in his time but not better subdefense than Macdonald.

Whatever. They're both great, but fitch will have good enough topgame to beat both from top.
I think Maia can definitely get him down or keep it standing a good portion of the time though. His "wrestling" is similar to Fitch in that they smother the opponent and drag them to the ground.

I dunno if keeping it standing is in his best interest honestly.

It's a very close fight standing imo.
Both will strike, looking to take the other down.

Fitch will grind out a decision on top. Maia may finish Fitch from top.

I actually think Fitch is the overall better striker, especially in terms of volume and diversity of standup attack. Maia's boxing has gotten respectable but I still give Fitch the edge.

If Fitch fights like he did last time he will take this one. Better on the feet and his aggressive grinding style will be horrible for Maia to deal with.

Fitch focuses on choke defence in training and offered sparring partners $'s if they could finish him from the back with hooks in prior to the Penn fight. I think Maia will be in for a long night.

I've taken
Fitch 1.5U
Overeem 1.5U

.5U on Fitch, Overeem, Evans, Aldo combo