Line is continuing to move. Super pleased to have got money down at 1.58.

Thanks. Let me know if you want me to ship before or after and by what method. Figure bankwire is easiest since both australian? Or alternatively I can keep a tab on your 5d to bet props if it wins, up to you. Booked.

I may have to fade you on SDR/Barry though if Barry gets above +220 or so. Have a partial unit play on Barry for the action/sweat but it almost certainly isn't a +EV play, I do like your side I think, especially at the opening lines, I think it's much closer to the true line now at +190 for Barry. Hopefully if Barry loses he goes to LHW, i'd love to see him fighting some of the LHW guys.

Pretty heavy line movement on Guillard, got a unit at +110 and he's a fav now. I still think the fight is a flip, but i'm happy with the side I got at + price. If Varner gets to +140 or better though i'll probably just arb off and take the profit.

OK, well I have all the bets on that I want/can get on for the moment I think. Hectic with three cards this weekend. So my picks are:

3-star plays

Del Rosario v Barry [TUF16 Finale]: 3u @ 1.564 (BEST BET)

2-star plays

Khabilov v Pichel [TUF16 Finale]: 2u @ 1.519
Held v Jansen [Bellator 84]: 1.5u @ ??? (partially on @ 2.2)
Volkov v Hale [Bellator 84]: 1.5u @ ??? (partially on @ 2.0)

1-star plays

Herrig v Vidonic [Bellator 84]: 1u @ ???
Whittaker v Scott [UFC on FX 6]: 1u @ 1.56
Parke v Fletcher [UFC on FX 6]: 1u @ ??? (partially on @ 2.04)
Rodriguez v Alloway [UFC on FX 6]: 1u @ 1.576
Loughnane v Wilkinson [UFC on FX 6]: 1u @ ???
Mitrione v Nelson [TUF16 Finale]: 1u @ ???
Head v Pyle [TUF16 Finale]: 1u @ ???
Cofer v Rio [TUF16 Finale]: 1u @ ???

A lot of the dogs I'm going to leave until fight day as the lines will probably improve as Pinny puts its lines up etc. Marcin Held is the only dog I've hit early as my guess is that and Volkov will both get bet in a bit. I'm maxed/busto on the sites that have Bellator lines up though so will have to wait to get rest on.

I might restrict myself to 0.5u for dogs that are up over 3.00.

A line for Herrig is up on Bookmaker/****** and is like 1.3x, but its not on BFO so I can't see which way it's moving or anything, so it seems prudent to wait and see what Pinny puts up. I'd normally put 2u on a line that short, even for a 1-star play, but I'm not so confident with women fighters so 1u will do.

Pleasing to see both Khabilov and Del Rosario getting hammered in as those are the bets I like the most.

Held v Jansen I am a little nervous about, I have seen several fights from both now. Held is a youngster whose striking is a bit wild and not as technically good as Jansen. His BJJ is some of the best in Bellator though, he is a leg submission specialist (ie kneebars, toeholds etc). Jansen I haven't seen much of on the ground, he seemed OK but not great, so the question will be whether he can keep the fight standing and how well he stands up to Held if it does go to ground. If Held can get him on the ground in R1 I like his chances as even if he doesn't get a sub, he will wear out the older Jansen. If it stays standing R1 Held could be in trouble.

Held had some hype but he has seemed pretty bad when I've watched him.

Has anyone seen khabilov fight and if so how good did he look?

Dunno but Pyles down to -225 which seems about right. Doubt there's any value in Head now.

He's not a very good all round fighter but his jitsu is legit. He has multiple high placings in international grappling competitions, and he's only 20 so he's constantly improving. Jansen is a better all around fighter than him though, so it's just one of those fights where it comes down to whether the 1-dimensional guy can make the fight happen on his terms or not.

Added 1.5u on cofer and 1u viana. May play whittaker and more on fletcher too, not sure yet.

5D currently lists Soti itd at +330, and Soti by submission at +300 lolololol. Got 1.5u on GSot itd.

no talk of guillard > varner? Im liking melvin @ these odds. I also like barry for the potential upset.

Plays for the 12/14/ card:

Palhares/Lombard ITD, 5u @ -230
GSot ITD, 2.5u @ +302
Mendes/Meza ITD, 1u @ -210
Scott/Whittaker ITD, 1u @ -160
Baczynski/Pierce goes distance, 1u @ -175
Palhares ITD, 0.5u @ +314

I'll be looking to add Igor/Beltran goes the distance right before the fight, as I think the ITD line will continue to get worse and worse leading up to the fight. Will post if I do add it.

Holy steam on Pearson. Sigh I bet Sot at +261 or whatever, pretty disappointed now.

Tempted by Pierce dec -110, anyone think there's value there?

Mendes wins ITD -185? Yes please.

2u.

Also added another half unit on Sot ITD. God I'm going full degen this card.

@ChrisM, I'm liking that Pokrajac to go the distance too.

Damn, didn't see that Pierce line before, I like it a lot. Adding 1u, thanks Mo.

Ya I'm rolling with it too.

I have WAY more on this card than I have any right to -_- So many juicy looking lines tho I couldn't help myself.

Final tally:

Pierce dec -110
Sot ITD +300
Mendes ITD 2u -185
Pearson/Sot ITD -110
Lombard ITD +100
Palhares/Lombard ITD -230
Palhares/Lombard draw 0.1u +8000

Wow

How could they all give the 2nd round to Wilkinson

I assume they gave the 3rd to Loughnane

Not watching atm, but the Loughnane fight Sherdog's dudes had it 30-27 Loughnane unanimously and then the official judges had it 29-28 Wilkinson unanimously. Weird.

I thought Loughnane had it, feel bit robbed. He was bleeding alot though so feels like case where judges were scoring the blood rather than the effective strikes.

He controlled the stand up for the most part, dropped Wilkinson in the 3rd (assume this is the round they for sure gave to him), and stuffed a bunch of takedowns. I had it 29-28 Loughnane with outside possibility of 30-27 (he got taken down and controlled round 1 but popped back up and controlled the stand up for the last 2-230 of the round.

R1: Wilkinson
R2-3: Loughnane

Ah well

Ughh I been so busy with poker I forgot to place all but like 1 bet on this card, now at a hotel and not sure 5d username,

Best way to go about getting my username? And why can't you picn your own.. Really annoys me lol

Pierce havent been finished I think, so mma logic, unam by pierce or tko by bazcynski?

Seems more like pierce by unam. Bazcynski doesnt seem to have any sort of urgence at all.

Pierce 10-9.

Bet lookin good.

yeah, barring any strange KO/injury, this seems like a lock.

Another round to Pierce it looked like, tho it looked closer. Didn't catch all that round but he did drop him with those clinch strikes.

It's pretty sick but Pierce could have been on a 9 win streak, if he had a bit of luck in the hendricks fight and not been so unlucky in the koscheck fight, which he was robbed off. The hendricks fight was a lot closer and I didnt mind it going to hendricks or pierce there tbh.