Gastelum on embedded #3 getting his haircut.

Max bet Bobby knucks. It is already decided.

i take gastelum too...he covers surprising distance with his 1,2 and whitaker had 2 like changing battle with Romero !
it could easily go both ways
again i have to correct joe pulaski..the guy is learning ..no worries it is forgiven!
boxing range gastelum will have an edge...shorter & stockier ! whitaker might be slightly faster overall but hands wise it should be in favor of gastelum ! kicking range diff advantage whitaker...and btw he usually keep the fight at kicking range but can throw lighting quick punches at that range like nobody else !

honestly anderson doesn't win this fight ever. even at crazy odds it's worth a bet.

literally, loll yeah of course !! but hey anything can happen especially when you not prepare loll

dude you are funny to me ..seriously i usually dont respond to your overbet because you obv cant ever back it up loll + you dont mind the punches behind the head or the slash behind the knee and so on loll
because of it ist also fun loll

One thing noting is Rob is really hard to finish and fighting in front of a home crowd and is the defending champ who tends to get the nod in close decisions - for Gastelum to win the belt it's likely going to have to be a clear cut decision or a finish and if Yoel couldn't put Rob down i'm not sure Kelvin will very often, plus Whittaker has better cardio

I think Whittaker's a bet until around -200, probably don't bet Kelvin until at least +250, current lines seem pretty reasonable

Anderson shouldn't win but he's definitely more like than Anthony Smith is against Jon Jones surely

Also just saw Tim Boetsch is fighting Omari Akhmedov soon. Could have sworn Boetsch was retired.

It's not a very deep card after the top two fights but still can't wait to see Whittaker defend that belt. I assume if Adesanya wins he's next in line too, Rob's already beaten Romero twice granted in close fights and Jacare too, the only other possibility is Weidman who is 1-4 in his last 5 but has a win over the current #1 contender and is way better than that record suggests and Rockhold is moving to LHW and Mousasi isn't in the UFC so there's just Costa and Yoel after that

It has to be the Silva/Adesanya winner next I guess say at international fight week in July followed by the Costa/Romero winner from the end of April can then sit out and wait for the winner of let's say Whittaker/Adesanya or whatever and fight for the title late in the year assuming the title fight winner fights 3x this year

I wouldn't think so.

I disagree with that. His easiest defense by far was Chael Sonnen. Also, I realize Jones didn't look that great but OSP should have been an easier fight too (and by not looking great, I of course mean that Jon Jones still won every single round). Also, I think Teixeira was an easier matchup for Jones stylistically. BTW, didn't realize Rampage was past his prime at that time.

One of the greatest of all time never wins a fight vs a young guy that got knocked out cold less than 2 years ago?

Yes, unless Anthony Smith has gotten a lot better in the past few months or Anderson has gotten a lot worse.

Typical crappy Asian Pacific/ Australian fight card.

what the **** are you talking about?

even if anderson wins 10% of the time this is still 5% roi. adesanya has been ko'd once in like 100+ fights, and alex perreira is a beast who was hurt really badly early in that fight. anderson has been hurt by everyone he's fought recently. let's assign probabilites of who's more likely to get hurt, and see how often adesanya is the one knocked out. i honestly think anderson's name and mystique are similar to conor in that it's almost always going to lead to to him being overvalued at this stage. the fact that people are calling him the GOAT despite the fact MMA has advanced so much since his peak, and he's old and shopworn now. his whole game was built around insane reflexes, and if those are gone i rly don't see what he's got for the best MMA striker now. I dunno, no way he wins this fight 14% of the time imo. i honestly think money will come in on anderson though near close and anything around -500ish i'm betting for sure. this is a squash match.

i mean ffs he's 44 in two months.

Just hedged my bet on Gastelum for a tiny arb.

Seen some pictures that he has some kind of skin rash possibly staph.
Might put some down on Gastelum wins in round 1.
As if it is staph its super unlikely he can last 5 rounds.

Adesanya by KO at 1.8 looks a pretty solid bet other then that I don't see much at all I like for this card.

I agree and the more I think of this the more of a mismatch it seems to be. If Adesanya was just some young and up and comer whose true ability wasn't known then this would be an easy bet on Anderson. A lot of times these young guys seem more promising than they actually are. However, with Adesanya I feel I've already seen enough of him to know he's the real deal. I'll be cheering for Anderson but feel this will be a hugely disappointing mismatch. The main event should be good though.

Couldn't resist the fishy bet on Anderson but he does look decent and to be fair he has only lost to elite guys even if he's a billion years old and Adesanya wants to stand and trade with him. Only went tiny obviously. Certainly not the best bet i've ever made but it's Anderson Silva as an enormous underdog against a striker even if he's a billion years old, coming off a broken leg and a PED failure and a layoff. I actually don't hate the overs in this fight and might play it too - everyone likes Adesanya ITD but I think he may struggle to kill his hero, it's not like he's going to grapple with him and yes if he finds Anderson's chin clean... but it's also his hero and if he's winning easily he may coast to a decision instead of hurting Anderson badly. Talked myself into a small overs bet as well, to go distance at +170.

Fired Whittaker too, there's something wrong with Gastelum's shoulders and the size difference is way more significant than I thought. -227 is a steep price but I think Bobby Knuckles is walking out champ tomorrow. Sure, Gastelum might find his chin but Whittaker has a good chin, he's just as powerful, fights better at long range, can stop any takedowns and has better cardio, he's just a bigger, better version of Gastelum with a better gas tank in a 5 rounder. Might talk myself into some r3-5 Whittaker TKO props but probably not just going straight up.

Took De La Rosa sub +150. She wins all her fights by sub and given the amount of grappling that happened in the Chambers fight and how green Kassem is she should find it

Took Crute -137 over Alvey. Alvey won't win a decision in Australia with his lack of volume so he has to finish him so I like Crute at that price

Took Maestro at +216, he's not the greatest fighter but I mean Smith lost to John Gunther only two years ago and as much as I love his personality Gunther was the worst TUF fighter in a long time and he has no wins over UFC level fighters so taking the dog.

Took some Kang sub +225. I think he gets ahold of Ishihara often enough and since i'm watching the whole card wanted small sweats everywhere

Took some Vannata ITD -188. Feels fishy, but his opponent seems to be a can. His opponent is slightly bigger than he is and big for the weight class but he's 6-4 vs Cans and Lando is offensively talented and fighting for his contract - he might play it safe and win by decision but I didn't want to lay -400 and figure he should finish here if he fights the way he usually does. This bet feels pretty fishy as well, but it really should be a squash

Took Buren +138 pure market movement for a sweat, same with Potter +211 - Turner looks way more athletic than him, but Turner has a terrible record and has been knocked out in 3 of his last 9 fights against not good competition - plus if in doubt back the hometown guy in case it goes the distance and is close.

Took some Kara-France wins in r1 at +500 too, not sure I love it but gives me a sweat for the flight, granted it's flyweight so loldecisions etc but he does look a ton more powerful than his opponent who seems to have been crushing cans in Brazil forever and this is his first UFC level opponent. Considered the TKO prop as well but went for wins in r1, if it goes deep good chance it goes the distance but I could see KKF catching him early often enough it's not terrible.

Biggest bet is Whittaker but still only medium size and the rest are all to win between a half and quarter unit, fairly small.

Good luck all

i took devonte smith, but i'm actually a little nervous at the price i have. smith is going to dominate on the feet but him getting taken down over and over worries me. striking wise i think smith will cruise with his jab and leg kicks alone, but kims kinda big and might be able to lean on smith and wear him out like he did with brendan o'reilly. i still think smith is too athletic but he did get put on the fence in his contender series fight as soon as his opponent had enough of the striking. i'm beating the current price, so i might come off of smith if more money comes in on him. maestro is tough, and gunther beat smith basically on toughness alone as he got ****ed up bad on the feet, but was determined enough to just keep working for takedowns. devonte was only 23 in that fight, but possible it can happen again. the fight is here

anyone have any opinion on bellator? i think corey browning is really bad, can't expect every opponent to gas and turtle like baby slice did. he seems particularly weak and unathletic and the chalmers guy at least seems strong.

Looked at Bellator not much going on. There are a few arbs if you have access to a lot of UK bookies.

Brazier is 1.25 with a bigger firm and can lay at 1.18 on Matchbook.
Would like to see Chalmers lose but Browning isn't great, he is durable though and at 3.8 or higher I don't hate betting him as Chalmers has not been past the first round yet.

Could easily see him gassing as the fight progresses.

Nevermind that. Whitaker is out with a hernia. This card is just terrible.

lol this def has potential to be one of the lowest selling PPVs.

theres now like 2 fights i want to see, from 3 fights.

ricky simon rani yayha ppv co-main. things that make you go hmmmmm

like how on earth can this even be a PPV card when it relies so heavily on the main event lol. they should just make it free. more people might watch. i know obv they will still make it PPV and soemhow still sell 150k buys but its stupid af.

Bellator European Series 1 Newcastle Risk $550.00

Patricky Freire (-450) vs Ryan Scope $450.00 for $100.00

Parlay:
Terry Brazier (-530) vs Chris Bungard + Fabian Edwards (-400) vs Lee Chadwick + Aaron Chalmers (-265) vs Corey Browning + Patricky Freire (-510) vs Ryan Scope $100.00 for $144.78

Spot on....

I can't wait to hear Rogan and DW do the interview after the undercard. The worse the card the more he shamelessly tries to sell it.

Don't think Rogan is there. Anik.

Meanwhile, I'm on the following:
JIM CRUTE -135
DEVONTE SMITH -256
KYUNG HO KANG -355
JONATHAN MARTINEZ -135
MONTANA DE LA ROSA -250

Think Crute is special and in Aussie.. should beat Sam. Devonte Smith is going to knock this guy out in the first or get subbed. End of story. Kyung Ho Kang is fighting the worst fighter on the UFC roster, and Kyung is very solid. Martinez is a toss up, but rolled with it because he's fighting a bum. De La Rosa is just miles above Kassem. Montana is tough, has a solid camp/husband and has something special about her. Kassem has some power? maybe feel its more just pressure in her early fights. Montana will submit her 100%.

Gl me.

Wow, a 3 round Adesanya Silva main event and the co-main is now Yahya vs Simon.

So glad I didn't stay in Melbourne an extra six days to go to this live, I almost did. Hopefully refunding everyone and selling 150k ppvs on Anderson nostalgia value and nothing else gives the UFC a lesson about their shallow garbage Australia cards. The Melbourne fans have every right to be livid this is not a PPV quality card at all and if it wasn't for the main event this would be super weak for a fight night card

Let's hope we get some quality fights anyway lack of name value aside, ridiculous Whittaker can never fight on home soil literally the last day

I'm fairly big on De La Rosa sub/itd (mostly sub) and Crute plus decent on Anderson/Adesanya o1.5 rounds although I like it a little less now that its the main event I think then the rest are sweat play sized

UFC 234 Risk $5,372.15

Israel Adesanya/Anderson Silva Over 1½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00
Israel Adesanya wins by 3 round decision (+221) $50.00 for $110.50

Lando Vannata -3½ points (-300) vs Marcos Rosa $225.00 for $75.00
Lando Vannata wins by submission (+350) $50.00 for $175.00

Rani Yahya (+106) vs Ricky Simon $400.00 for $424.00
Rani Yahya wins by submission (+185) $125.00 for $231.25

Montana De La Rosa (-244) vs Nadia Kassem $487.80 for $200.00
Montana De La Rosa (-249) vs Nadia Kassem $996.00 for $400.00
Montana De La Rosa (-250) vs Nadia Kassem $250.00 for $100.00
Montana De La Rosa (-250) vs Nadia Kassem $250.00 for $100.00
Montana De La Rosa (-250) vs Nadia Kassem $500.00 for $200.00
Montana De La Rosa wins inside distance (+135) $75.00 for $101.25
Montana De La Rosa wins by submission (+160) $75.00 for $120.00
Montana De La Rosa wins by TKO/KO (+1387) $50.00 for $693.50
Montana De La Rosa/Nadia Kassem Under 2½ (+120) $100.00 for $120.00
Montana De La Rosa/Nadia Kassem Under 2½ (+105) $100.00 for $105.00

Sam Alvey (+111) vs Jim Crute $200.00 for $222.00
Sam Alveys wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+251) $40.00 for $100.00
Sam Alvey wins in round 3 (+1150) $15.00 for $172.50

Devonte Smith (-245) vs Dong Hyun Kim $245.00 for $100.00
Devonte Smith wins by TKO/KO (-123) $30.75 for $25.00

Austin Arnett (+275) vs Shane Young $75.00 for $206.25
Austin Arnett wins inside distance (+1300) $20.00 for $260.00
Austin Arnett wins by TKO/KO (+2390) $10.00 for $239.00
Austin Arnett wins by submission (+1700) $10.00 for $170.00

Kai Kara France (-285) vs Raulian Paiva $570.00 for $200.00

Teruto Ishihara/Kyung Ho Kang Under 2½ (-122) $48.80 for $40.00

Callan Potter/Jalin Turner Under 1½ (-132) $52.80 for $40.00

Wuliji Buren (+135) vs Jonathan Martinez $100.00 for $135.00
Wuliji Buren/Jonathan Martinez Over 2½ (-240) $96.00 for $40.00

It blows my mind that people would buy this PPV even with the main event in tact. The UFC is making hundreds of millions from their TV deal. They don't need the PPV model to survive anymore. The only reason they do these PPVs is because people are willing to buy them. Sure, I understand buying a big PPV but in this case you're paying $65 for what? I recently purchased a year of ESPN+ for $50 and that gives me 20 UFC Fight Night events plus preliminary fights plus originals plus all the rest of the ESPN+ content. Why someone would want to pay $65 for a terrible card that most of the world gets for free is beyond me.

Isn't it great that the UFC went to ESPN so now we have to watch with 15% of the screen taken up by distracting sports scores and bull****?