thanks for the great in depth breakdown once again swoop. had a few questions n play a little devils advocate if you don't mind.

Stipe/Overeem

How much do you think Overeems kicks will be a factor in this fight? Do you put much stock into the mma math of how they looked against common opponents? Seems kind of pointless in a lot of scenarios as each matchup is unique.

Werdum/Browne

Do you put much stock into Browne being the desperate dog in the fight here? Has enough time gone by from Werdum's KO loss for him to have properly healed? I suppose they both have a taken beatings as of late tho.

Faber/Rivera

As far as the betting goes, I can't imagine a whole lot of $ would come in on Rivera so betting Uriah early would be best imo. I wonder about the motivation of both these guys coming into this fight. For Uriah, I can't imagine it gets him too excited but he's a consummate pro. But, he's gotta know if he wins he'll get the fight against TJ which will likely be the last big fight of his career. For Rivera, this is his biggest fight and biggest opportunity so I'd imagine were gonna see the best version of him.

Calderwood/Andrade

Andrade's last fight was her first at 115 I believe right? I do remember she looked extremely impressive tho, however given Penne's last few fights i suppose maybe not as impressive as originally thought.

Eye/Correia

This seems like a combo of Eye just outright being the better fighter and desperately needing a good performance. This and the Uriah lines look so good that i almost feel like its a trap and that there is info out there that I'm not aware of.

Borg/McCall

Do you think McCall having to go through 2 separate weight cuts in a months span will affect him much negatively?

I'm really excited for this card as well, its gonna be an awesome week for betting all around with football kicking up this week as well.

Just watched the first embedded n punks weight looks good.

Re Stipe/Overeem - I think Reems kicks/knees will help him in the early stages, if this fight were to go the distance I definitely like Reem's side. I would go as far as to say I expect him to win more exchanges than he loses until Stipe catches him and knocks him out due to his glass chin/lack of heart when hit.

Werdum/Browne

Werdum needs this too, if he loses he is done as a contender for good at his age and if he wants a chance to get the belt back he NEEDS to win this fight. Browne needs it too. Both guys should show up and bring their A game. Werdum knows he was lazy and undisciplined gameplan wise and got caught and shouldn't make that mistake again. No idea with regards to damage from the KO but Browne is coming off a beating at the hands of Cain as well, so I figure that's a push.
How has Werdum 'taken beatings of late'? He won the Cain fight sustaining some but not a huge amount of damage and the Stipe fight was a flash KO, i'd argue he landed the better shots until he got caught and finished. Granted it was a KO he needs to recover from but it's been a few months and unless his chin is shot he should be fine. Browne's taken more sustained beatings between the Arlovski, Cain, Reem and Werdum 1 fights. In that time Werdum's taken some damage in r1 of the Hunt fight and a little bit in the Cain fight and the flash KO vs Stipe but i'd hardly say a lot. Browne had Reem, Cain and Arlovski all tee off on him with many clean shots.

Faber/Rivera - I tend to agree the casual money will come on Faber and while the sharp money will start coming against Faber at this point of his career at this price I still think Faber is the sharp side to bet on and perhaps the bookies have overthought the situation. I could be wrong, we'll find out this weekend. I do plan to fade Faber and soon, i'm just not convinced Rivera is the guy to do it. If Faber was fighting Assuncao for example or even Sterling i'd probably start fading Faber today. It's baffling to me that Rivera is ranked similarly to Garbrandt and above Assuncao on Fightmatrix.

Andrade's last fight was her first at 115 yes and she looked great, but I personally think Penne is/was overrated. Calderwood fought at 125 last fight and looked great , hopefully she looks just as good at 115. It's big that she got the bonus eventually and doesn't have to work and can go back to Tristar and train full time again for this fight (her last fight was the first time she'd done that I beleive and she looked great vs Letourneau who is legit and who gave Joanna a good fight)

Also with Calderwood looking good at 125 i'm not too worried she's fighting an ex 135er in Andrade, they should be about the same size and are both natural 125 fighters. If Jojo loses it'll be because Andrade can outmuscle her and take her down/GnP but if the fight is contested on the feet I expect Jojo to come out on top and I think that's slightly more likely.

Eye/Correia, yeah. This is it for Eye. If she loses she'll be 1-1-5 in her last 7 and could be looking at getting cut. Correia is pretty desperate off 2 straight losses too, but Correia is way less athletic and. You're right the lines could be a trap, but we can only bet with the info we have unless it's clear via betting steam that something we're not aware about is going on and i'm more inclined to believe books just throw openers out for MMA and adjust as the money comes in compared to other bigger spots. MMA steam seems slightly less accurate than most other sports in terms of predicting outcomes as well to me at least.

Using Eye as an example, she has steamed in against Davis, McMann and Smith and she went 1-2 and money came against her against Pena, Tate, Gurgel and Kaufman and she went 2-2 there.

Correia was bet in against Kedzie and Pennington and went 1-1, and it came against her on Baszler, Duke and Rousey and she went 2-1.

I wouldn't be too concerned about it unless the steam is enormous in one direction on any given fight, when it's less than 10% in either direction there doesn't seem to be any real correlation with that fighter winning or losing a particularly high percentage of the time for where the odds are.

Re: Borg/McCall, it certainly can't help that McCall had his last fight cancelled and has to cut weight again, it could be motivation for him or it could have messed with his head, losing Del Rosario and all the other stuff McCall's gone through in recent years means he's been through a rough time, I have no idea if he'll recover and return to elite status or start a Jens Pulver like downward spiral into being a can. Borg it's a similar case of can he reach the top 10 status he has shown the potential to against lower level competition but hasn't beaten a contender yet but there's time as he's young and improving. Upon further analysis i'm liking my Borg bet slightly less than I was at first, but there will be plenty of time to switch sides or find a hedge if I change my mind i'll rewatch some tape on both guys prior to the card.

For the record I'm on board with all your picks except im leaning more to Andrade, was just playing some devils advocate n trying to see other side. As far as both taking beatings as of late, I just meant both coming off loses(TKO/KO) n Browne off a few. I'm all over werdum here and I think he is going to try and be a lot smarter this fight knowing what's at stake for him like you mentioned. He should be trying to implement more than stand up this fight and I'm sure he knows that.

I already got my money in on Faber n Eye. The other fights I'll get on later in the week after weigh ins. The fight I have the hardest time with is the main. My gut tells me Alistar but his chin is more than suspect like you mentioned. At this point I think stipe is the side until he proves otherwise esp at -145 vs a guy who won't survive a couple hard shots.

Am I really seeing Urijah Faber as +110???

Evidently people really believe in Jimmie Rivera, or people think Faber is declining faster than I do. I mean he got dismantled by Cruz but everyone bar TJ gets dismantled by Cruz. Faber actually did better vs Cruz than I expected him to, I actually think that despite being dominant in victory and my opinion that Cruz personally performed better against TJ than he did against Faber, I thought Faber would take even more damage and potentially get finished although the 50-45 was always the most likely outcome as Faber is hard to finish.

I'd have been on Andrade over Jojo prior to the Letourneau fight, but I think we're going to see a better Jojo than ever. If she comes out the way she did earlier in her UFC career, Andrade will win.

The Faber price is very strange to me I expected him to open at -150ish and wouldn't have been shocked if he opened at -250 before Rivera got bet in to +180 or so.

Evidently there is a lot more money out there for Rivera than I thought. I guess in a vacuum take the prospect over the declining veteran but this is a HUGE step up in competition for Rivera and he barely won his last two fights.

I bought off my Borg bet and took the 0.1u loss, will do some more analysis and it's kinda looking like McCall might steam and if he does I can get Borg at +160 or whatever closer to the fight

Calderwood was back at Tristar again for this training camp, so seems more likely she'll look like she did in her past few fights, not her earlier work.

I like Jessica Eye as well, but I don't think I've ever picked one of her fights correctly so that makes me nervous. I suspect the odds are partly her record, and partly people thinking the hate has gone too far on Correia.

I kinda feel the reverse on Stipe / Overeem going the distance. The past few fights in particular Reem has gone with a very low-volume striking approach. Now maybe Stipe backs the pace off some too because he's scared of Reem's counters and we end up with a slow-paced fight, but I'd probably expect Stipe to throw more and score more if the fight goes the distance.

Another possible factor, Overeem has never gone five rounds. Not even in kickboxing. So we don't know what his gas tank is really like if the fight goes that long - I'm thinking he'll stick to that low-output style to conserve energy though. Stipe, on the other hand, we know can go five rounds.

I can definitely see Reem winning this fight, but I think the likely outcomes are Reem KO or Stipe KO / decision. Though judging is going through this whole change process, so who knows :P

Borg is the best bet in this card imo. McCall with his injury issues and layoff definitely helps. And you're right this opened at even money. Plus the fact that i love betting against long layoffs. And love betting on a young, up and coming fighter.

It's a terrible stylistic matchup for Borg. McCall has better TDD than Scoggins, and Borg is pretty much a pure grappler.

Disagree with Swoop on many of these...

I am heavy on Rivera. The guy is one of the best boxers in MMA, and has damn good TDD. That's the nightmare scenario for Faber, who was losing handily to Francisco Rivera (a similar, but worse version of Jimmy) before the eyepoke. Jimmy should be -200 in this spot. The only thing holding the line up is people who assume Faber will never lose to a 'non-elite' guy, but in my opinion Rivera is headed to that level, and Faber's time for crushing the mid level is up (as evidenced by his fight with Saenz).

Also heavy on Andrade. Letourneau played into Jojo's style by hanging on the outside last fight and eating teeps to the boobs, but I think Jojo will struggle against the pressure of Andrade. Jojo's boxing (especially defensively) is very subpar, and without range her arsenal is limited. Takedowns should be even.

Small on Correia. Yes, she's not technical. Yes, she looks awkward. But WMMA is very unevolved, and being a beast of a woman counts for a lot in there. She looked very impressive against Pennington, who is very technical and at the top of the division. Fight IQ is also very important in WMMA, and Eye has perhaps the worst in all the UFC.

Also on McCall for reasons stated in the previous post.

I agree on Tavares and Medeiros, though.

Agree with this, Andrade has some serious power, and I think she is a serious title contender at 115, because of her pressure and power she at least has a legit shot against the superior strikers from Poland(JJ and KK), whereas Calderwood would not really stand a change against them.

Reminds me a bit of Lineker and Garbrand, that KO power in the lower weight classes is such a huge weapon, way bigger than in the higher divisions since very few have it. Although Cruz and Johnson heave great footwork and wrestling so they will be able to deal with that much better, whereas JJ is very flat footed and does get hit much more, and has no threat of the TDD, so a combination of pressure and power works really well against her.

If Andrade would get a shot somewhere next year, and JJ defended her belt a few more times, I assume JJ will be a huge favorite, and I will be for the look out to bet Andrade as a huge dog.

Overall should be an exciting fight, since Calderwood comes to fight and has shown great heart.

Cerrone vs Lawler just announced for UFC 205. Super excited for this fight.

Cerrone -130 Robbie +110. I hope that Cerrone opens lower though

Pretty sure I'll be on Lawler if his chin isn't shot I think he can out strike cerrone and maybe even ko him

I bought off the Borg bet as previously posted. I may get back on or switch but want to do more analysis. I'll rewatch Rivera's fights but I can't see Faber's price improving and I mean it's Faber as a dog to a prospect yes he isn't the fighter he was but he hasn't completely fallen off a cliff and only top 3 guys make him look bad. Still convinced eye will beat correia handily, I don't think anything could convince me I'm on the wrong side there. Andrade JoJo I'm just assuming TriStar non broke JoJo shows up and while andrade will win if she gets takedowns at will I like JoJo's chances on the feet

Oh man... Cerrone-Lawler is one of those fights where I'm gonna have a hard time betting it just cause I wouldn't want to see either guy lose, big fan of both.

I suspect Cerrone has the edge with the more diverse and active striking game? I can't remember, has he struggled against southpaws? He'll have the advantage of the Jackson-Winklejohn team coaching him (who already put heaps of time into game planning for Lawler in the Condit fight, so he's an opponent they know very well). And Lawler does have that bad habit of just giving away rounds and getting behind on the score cards. The odds feel about right on that one for me at this stage.

Same here, big fan of both guys. The two guys off top head I can remember cerrone losing to are dos anjos n nate diaz which are both south paws. That's a good point about his camp Oz, have to think that really makes a difference.

Having a hard time seeing anything on this card I really like.
Would like to fade Faber but can't when Rivera is the favourite expected him to be a slight dog.

I like Jessica Eye and think she is one of the better athletes in that division but I always seem to overate her and unless I can get her at around 1.85 its tough to bet her.

I think Werdum might be the best bet on the card but its heavyweight where one clean shot makes a big difference and would like a slightly better price then 1.5.

Hey guys a little help please!

So I've made UFC parlay bets in Vegas and done pretty well, but I wanted to know if I could make parlay say two UFC 203 bets and two football games onto one parlay?

I was planning on making my bets in the next few days so any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks

Anywhere that lets you parlay MMA to MMA should let you parlay to football as well.

Honestly this.

While betting heavy on brazilians has cost me money in the past (i.e. betting hard on dos anjos in his last contest) ... Rafael cordeioro and Nick Curson of Speed of SPort have sent these men (rda+werdum) into battle tried and tested. Both RDA and werdum share same training regiment in CA.

Run back dos anjos with alvarez and I guarantee a different result. Werdum was a great champion and he has already convincingly beaten travis brown. I expect the best travis brown maybe ever but I think Werdum will be prepared and hungry to get a win after his recent loss. I think he is the most valuable pick of the card and all my parlays start with him winning.

I heard the video of punks smokers were nearly 2 years old n possible gall was seen with stitches. Anyone hear similar? Seen like move from -450 to -400 on gall n was curious if this was because of these rumors.

A plethora of combat sports action tonight:

Titan FC 41 Risk $650.00
Carina Damm (+140) vs Kalindra Faria $100.00 for $140.00
Carina Damm (+205) vs Kalindra Faria $50.00 for $102.50
Alexandre Bezerra (+190) vs Andre Harrison $100.00 for $190.00
Robert Turnquest (+175) vs Taylor Krahl $100.00 for $175.00
Rodrigo Cavalheiro Correia (+150) vs Jason Jackson $100.00 for $150.00

Parlay:
Alexandre Bezerra/Andre Harrison Over 3½ (-210) + Carina Damm/Kalindra Faria Over 2½ (-165) $50.00 for $68.54

Round Robin of six two-team parlays at $25.00 each:
Rodrigo Cavalheiro Correia (+120) + Robert Turnquest (+145) + Alexandre Bezerra (+160) + Carina Damm (+120) $150.00 for $685.75


Glory Kickboxing 33 Risk $190.00
Hesdy Gerges (-140) vs Guto Inocente $140.00 for $100.00
Jason Wilnis (+220) vs Simon Marcus $50.00 for $110.00


RFA 43 Risk $50.00
Zac Riley (+220) vs Boston Salmon $50.00 for $110.00


PBC Boxing on Spike Risk $340.00
Richard Commey (+475) vs Robert Easter Jr. $100.00 for $475.00
Richard Commey/Robert Easter Jr. Under 7½ (+120) $75.00 for $90.00
Manny Woods (+3800) vs Kermit Cintron $25.00 for $950.00

Parlay:
Daniel Jacobs/Sergio Mora won't go distance (-325) + Gennady Golovkin wins inside distance (-315) $140.00 for $101.20

Added for "Knockout Night at the D" on CBS SN tonight:

Steve Claggett (+135) vs Emmanuel Robles $50.00 for $67.50

Weigh in thoughts... Like stipe slightly more than before, werdum I'm thinking the line is about right now but only because of the stipe ko on werdum and Browne's taken some recent beatings too. Both guys as expected. Rivera shorter than I remember. Faber same as slways . thought eye might have more size v correia but still fine with it. Missed Borg v McCall being cancelled so I push that buyback and don't start off down 0.1u after all. I like my JoJo bet more I thought andrade was bigger than she is. Steam disagrees though. I like my tavares bet a lotvmore think magalhaes looks pretty bad in the pics I'll watch bid when I get home. Gall looks great punk looks only OK. Somewhat tempted by gall ko now. Idk. No real change to thought on medeiros Spencer. Dober looked smallish may look into gonzalez

Also considering barroso by ko vs cb. Forgot cb moved to 205 and guys have more power there. CBS the better fighter but his chin is not good