besides gut feeling, basic research...are there any sites or bloggers u guys regularly turn to for researching props for ufc etc?

I used to but there's nobody other than people in the thread here whose opinions I really value. Sometimes the Sherdog breakdowns are good, sometimes they suck. 411mania used to be good, but I feel like most of us in the thread know more about MMA than the guys in their roundtables these days - I still read them and a few other sites but generally speaking I prefer to just pick my own stuff or if someone in the thread has a good valid argument why a line is solid I tail a lot too

I added a few more for this card. Lot of guys i'm not too familiar with on the prelims so only have a few bets so far. I'm sure i'll end up making a lot of sweat plays just before the fight but this is what I have so far

2.6u Makhachev -120

I feel like this fight will be more about who is the better wrestler than who is the better striker. I expect it to be competitive, but will take Makhachev's elite sambo background over division 3 wrestling all day. Wade may have a small edge standing, but in a fight I think is fairly likely to go the distance i'm taking the guy who will put the other on his back more often and I expect Makhachev to wind up in top position more often when the fight goes to the ground.

1u Brunson/Hall goes distance -135

I was originally going to take Brunson -140 or so, but after the steam not too keen on taking the current line despite thinking Brunson will usually win via volume striking and pressure. Hall is likely to have a few good moments but I think he needs to finish Brunson to win this one. I still may end up taking Brunson as well, but I missed the boat on the early line as I didn't expect this much steam so quickly. That said i've talked myself into a small play anyway so

0.5u Brunson -188

Because he should win about two thirds of the time, basically whenever Hall doesn't catch him with something flashy.

1u Robertson TKO +375

I lean Robertson over Carniero and think TKO is the most likely way he wins. That's about it here really. Either Carniero gets it to the ground and wins by sub, or Robertson wins the standup and either gets the finish or wins a decision. I'm leaning towards a TKO, while it won't happen over 50% of the time or anything I think +375 is a good enough price.

1u Skelly DEC +273

Blanco's mental weakness is the biggest risk here. I think Skelly can and will grind him out via being a more well rounded MMA fighter and while I think Skelly straight up is a reasonable bet as well, I think there's more value in the decision line as I don't think he finishes over half the time and his ML is about -175. I do think Skelly wins over the 63% or so required for his ML to be fine, but I think he wins by decision well over the 27% this price requires so it's the better spot. I'd estimate he wins by decision more like 35% of the time if I had to put a number on it and was tempted to add even more tbh although there's a chance I may play Skelly straight up and don't want to load up that much this early.

No play on Poirier/Johnson yet I can't decide and keep changing my mind

Decided to add 1.35on Poirier ITD +120 with a 0.32u hedge on Johnson DEC +400 to break even

Decided to up my Brunson bet to a full unit as well at -188

And finally, added 1u on Dunham by decision at +100. Dunham has 7 decision wins in a row and while Glenn's got an ok record vs cans, his best win is probably Karakhanyan - I fully expect Dunham to dominate, but Dunham just isn't known for his finishing power.

Got plays on the last six fights of the card now; lean Sicilia but don't know enough about Benitez. Carlos Jr should win in theory early on the card but he also kinda sucks and is a big fav. Rest of the card is mostly TUF Latin America cast-off types who I don't really care about, so i'll probably just wake up for the last six or seven fights.

If I have to fire an exact prediction for the main i'll go with Poirier by sub in round 2. That one's +1000, but a bit too specific for me - I tend to think that Poirier will eventually get the finish (sub being more likely than tko imo) if he's winning and if he can't get it to the ground and is losing the standup he'll likely lose a decision to Johnson - so my main bet is Poirier ITD, and I decided to do a small hedge on Johnson DEC, as I feel that's the second most likely outcome, followed well back by Poirier DEC and Johnson ITD

Adding 1u Robertson -120, still think TKO is most likely but short of getting taken down and subbed he should beat Robertson so I think the spot is reasonable

Should be done for the card now unless I wake up early and degen. Was considering both Robertson/Carniero and Poirier/Johnson for FOTN but didn't like the price on either quite enough.

First of let me state that I by no means an expert. I have seen both fight. Poirer seems he can take less damage tbh. In a fight were both are strong strikers, and I feel the fight will be mostly fought as box/kickboxing match, I tend to go with the one who can take more punishment. I think Johnson will deal with it better.

I think it's a 50/50 sure poirer can win and should win a decent amount of the time. They both have a lot to lose imo, both want to desperately break through and get title shots. Who's got more heart, who does not choke.

Poirer vs Mcgregor was a good example of Dustin just being a choker imo. He got finished and looked like an amateur, sure it happens to the best of us and it might just be a 1 off.

Johnson took a lot of hard punches from Diaz and still stood right in front of him. Lets's see if Dustin can take the same amount of punches, my guess is he can not.

Love the main event, but not a huge fan of the rest of the card, still have found quite a few bets so all good!

Quinonez 3 units @ 2.35
Multi - Muhammad/Dunham 5 units @ 1.59
Skelly 5 units @ 1.568
Wade 4 units @ 2.10
Robertson 4 units @ 1.90
Hall 4 units @ 2.80
Porier 5 units @ 1.632


Have not pulled the trigger yet but quite like the look of the main event to be fight of the night at $3.75+
anyone have an opinion on this ?

I got Poirier , Dunham, Mak and Junior as part of a 6 play parlay (Mineros soccer and Calgary football) 1.7u to win 14.2u

Good luck everyone

Here what I got and that's gonna be it, but will add .02u on early fights for a sweat.

.5u Brunson by decision
.25u Hall TKO/KO
1u fight goes distance
2u Brunson ML

1u Poirer/Johnson go distance
.5u Poirer by decision
22u Poirer ML(all my NFL week 2 winnings :/)

1u Makhachev

GL everyone! Gonna be an awesome or regretful card for me. But gonna be a fun sweat at least!

UFN 94 Risk $3816.50

Dustin Poirier (-155) vs Michael Johnson $310.00 for $200.00
Dustin Poirier (-160) vs Michael Johnson $480.00 for $300.00
Dustin Poirier wins by submission (+325) $35.00 for $113.75

Derek Brunson (-191) vs Uriah Hall $382.00 for $200.00

Evan Dunham (-330) vs Rick Glenn $577.50 for $175.00
Rick Glenn wins in round 1 (+950) $25.00 for $237.50

Kenny Robertson (-122) vs Roan Carneiro $427.00 for $350.00
Roan Carneiro wins by submission (+650) $50.00 for $325.00

Islam Makhachev (-117) vs Chris Wade $585.00 for $500.00

Maximo Blanco (+165) vs Chas Skelly $100.00 for $165.00
Maximo Blanco wins in round 1 (+1000) $30.00 for $300.00
Maximo Blanco/Chas Skelly Draw (+7000) $10.00 for $700.00

Gabriel Benitez (+115) vs Sam Sicilia $50.00 for $57.50

Belal Muhammad (-425) vs Augusto Montano $425.00 for $100.00
Belal Muhammad wins in round 3 (+900) $15.00 for $135.00

Leonardo Guimaraes (+235) vs Antonio Carlos Junior $50.00 for $117.50
Leonardo Guimaraes wins in round 3 (+1100) $10.00 for $110.00

Jose Alberto Quinones (+130) vs Joey Gomez $50.00 for $65.00

Randy Brown/Erick Montano Under 1½ (+127) $50.00 for $63.50
Alejandro Perez/Albert Morales Under 1½ (+170) $50.00 for $85.00

Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+203) $40.00 for $81.20
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+525) $25.00 for $131.25
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 6½ (+1455) $15.00 for $218.25
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 7½ (+5100) $10.00 for $510.00
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 8½ (+25600) $5.00 for $1,280.00

Evan Dunham/Rick Glenn FOTN award winner (+700) $10.00 for $70.00

Just came up to a smaller foothill casino here in nor cal to play some cards n watch fights and they don't carry fs1. Terrible beat to start the night.

UFC Hidalgo
my donk bets

.5u Michael Johnson in Round 3 +1600
.5u Michael Johnson in Round 2 +1200
5u Dustin Poirier wins inside distance -110
.5u Dustin Poirier wins by KO, TKO or DQ +240

1u Uriah Hall wins by KO, TKO or DQ +400
.25u Brunson by submission +600

.5u Evan Dunham wins by submission +325

1.5u Chas Skelly wins inside distance +120
.5u Chas Skelly wins by decision or technical decision +250

.25u Kenny Robertson wins by KO, TKO or DQ +350
.25u Kenny Robertson wins inside distance +175
.25u Randy Brown wins by 3 round decision +200
1u Islam Makhachev -135
.25u Islam Makhachev wins by submission +400

Win
Single: Dustin Poirier @ 8/13
1 line at £75.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £75.00
Potential returns: £121.15


love the display of kicking from Uriah Hall and speed of striking, would advise to bet extra units on Poirier than go hard on either hall or Brunson

****ing ****ty corner, poor guy got no stool Things like that really mess up a fighter.

Quinones giving this fight away , 1-1

Alright my soccer and CFL bets won so my parlay is live w Cara de Zapato next gogogo gluck every1 !!!

Tailed Jim and went big on
Islam, Robertson and Dunham

Let's go!!!!!!!!!!

***************
Nice, fightpass automatically goes to main card instead of needing to reclick like before.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Nice to see i'm on the same side of the main card as Jim other than Skelly/Blanco

gl all

We are all in the same team LETS GOO!!!

Well, Chas Skelly did NOT win by decision. I guess someone's getting a POTN. Shame I didn't hit straight up as well.

On the plus side I added 0.1u parlay of my main card picks just before the fight so at least I get a little equity back.

I really need poirier and evan dunham to finish their fights.

lol i had over 1.5r

Looks like Makhachev is here to wrestle which is good for me

gogo biggest bet of the card

aaaand as I type that he loses position from the mount. Still, if it's a grappling fight I think I have the side I want.

I mean I guess it's 10-9 Wade even though he spent most of the round fighting off a triangle just because he was in top position

Makhachev needs to secure position properly next time if he gets to a dominant position

Wow, Makhachev is -170 live to Wade's +140 despite likely being down a round

I should theoretically buy off my bet but I can't help but feel like Makhachev's going to come back

edit: and it moved to -115 both sides

Ugh wow he gets a good spot then loses the scramble