I think Swick's gonna come back strong, but it's def wise to stay away given the unknowns and all that.

I just can't wait for Mike Goldberg to start saying "Punches in Bunches" a dozen times again.

think miller is a big favorite here

I like Gomez at -195.

Ya I like Miller a lot but he has burned me a bunch, he just seems to get himself into brawls and fight the way his opponent wants to pretty often.

Gomez dropping to -195 sounds pretty solid to me, I was considering him at -250 so obv this is much more attractive.

If Omigawa keeps climbing I will probably throw a bet in on him, he's up to +140. Would like to see him at +170 or so.

@Swoop Shogun inside distance -160 sounds pretty good to me too. Vera isn't the easiest to finish as you said, but I've been noticing these 5 rounders have seemed to tend more towards finishes.

I have a gut feeling miller will stand with nam instead of taking him down and if that happens nam most likely wins a stand up battle.

I just rewatched Shogun Hendo and I have to say, Shogun has an unhuman chin. If those power shots from Hendo can't finish him, then I can't see Vera TKO/KO'ing him. Best he can hope for is to take him to deep waters and somehow squick out a decision.

Just read through your post and noticed this. He's 5 and a half years younger than his opponent.

really loving gamburyan too.

Ticket Accepted Date Risk To Win Status Wager
130163522-1 8/2/12 2:34pm $145.53 $107.80 Pending 8/4/12 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Cole Miller -135* vs Nam Phan
130154234-1 8/2/12 12:15pm $250.00 $185.19 Pending 8/4/12 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Cole Miller -135* vs Nam Phan
128327131-1 7/17/12 12:17pm $154.00 $96.25 Pending 8/11/12 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ben Henderson -160* vs Frankie Edgar


255273855-1
1 8:42am 17-Jul-12 5:45pm 4-Aug-12 Mixed Martial Arts
Money Line Ryan Bader vs Lyoto Machida for Match. -314 200.00 63.69 PendingUFC
255273855-2
2 8:42am 17-Jul-12 9:15pm 11-Aug-12 Mixed Martial Arts
Money Line Frankie Edgar vs Ben Henderson for Match. -156 277.00 177.56 PendingUFC
477.00

Wish I could get off my Machida bet and put it on Gamburyan. Also wish I had a lot more to throw at Henderson, though the line is getting worse :/

Machida seems like a rly safe bet to me, I'm on him. What can Bader do against him?

Catch him with big over right hand, though not very likely. He's far far away from machidas standup skills. Also if Machida is too passive and Bader chases him like rampage did.

Rampage at least throws much tighter, quicker punches though. Machida should have no problem evading Bader's bad striking.

Im ok with the Machida bet, Id just rather it be on Manny

I've added another unit and a half on Lauzon as the odds got better, interesting that all of the money is coming on Varner. I really feel like Lauzon's gonna sub him. All of the guys that Lauzon has lost to in the UFC have been better than Varner imo and I don't see how Varner can win other than 'outstrike Lauzon and don't ever let it go to the ground' and I feel like the striking is a flip

Machida by TKO is now a serious dog to Machida decision so i'm considering changing my stance there and taking Machida inside distance since Dana said whoever wins most impressively gets the shot, Machida should be more aggressive than normal, I might just take Machida straight up

It's a shame Machida Bader isn't a 5 round fight as well. Tbh, I don't think any of the fighters are going to change anything extra with the Dana announcement in terms of being more aggressive, trying flashy stuff etc.

Yeah Machida/Bader should have been the main as they're more likely to need the 5 rounds but ideally all potential #1 contender fights and co-mains should be 5 rounds

In fact, I wouldn't object if all main card fights became 5 rounders and prelims were 3. By the time you're on the main card you need to be ready to fight for the title so why not. Obviously PPV timing etc would be a concern but i'd definitely like to see 5 round co-mains and official #1 contender bouts at least

So...

Machida by TKO is +245 now, looks kinda tempting, Machida inside distance +194 but I doubt he'll be going for subs.

Tbh, some fights I wouldn't want 5 rounds. Just imagine the last ufc 149 card, the kongo fight and boetsch lombard. Those fight could only get worse as time goes. But yeah, ldo contender and co-main event fights should be 5 round fights.

Also, +EV to just bet both unan + inside distance for machida?

theres actually a bet for not bader inside distance im not sure what it is but it'd be unbackable as would id imagine both by decision and machida inside distance - you'd lose if machida wins by decision betting all 3 of those

Varner could win by simply outlasting Lauzon and finishing him late or outstriking with takedowns to take the last two rounds. Lauzons cardio sucks and it's the main reason I'm hesitant to bet him.

I think he can win the first two often enough if it goes to decision. I don't think it will though, I think someone's getting finished most of the time.

I'm putting a small hedge on Vera by decision just because that's the only way I see him winning and it's +650.

Almost all my bets on this card are on Machida. Machida dec +205, Machida/Bader goes distance -125, Machida -300, Machida/Davis parlay.

In summary, go Machida.

Interesting that Machida weighed only 201 wtf? Perhaps his scale was off and he overcut? Definitely odd. I thought Lauzon was gonna have a bigger size advantage over Varner but Varner is bigger than I thought.

Damn Cormier -285, far higher than I hoped for

Machida 201, and taking a sip of something before getting on the scale...hmmm....

guess i wont be adding to my 3.2u to win 1u afterall?

good thing bader is one of the biggest fish in the mid/upper tier of the division!

Quick question. Which underdog would you guys take if it was just pick the winner and no odds. Omigawi, Varner, Phan or Yayha? Just in a pickem pool and have all the favorites picked and want to pick atleast one of the underdogs. Thanks.