http://mmajunkie.com/news/29899/heav...medium=twitter

Bigfoot Silva vs Travis Browne, should be fun.

Cormier -250

lol @ Vera having elite striking though. Cmon -_- Who has he dominated on the feet? Michael Patt?

Mauro Ranallo, John Morgan and Josh Gross all scored it for Marshall. I personally scored it 29-28 Vera but it was close getting dropped by a ultimate fighter bum isn't a good thing when your fighting shogun.

Then none of those guy are credible or sane. I mean, sometimes even when I think someone won a close fight, I can see arguments for why the opponent could have won the fight, like the machida shogun 1st fight or Hendo vs Shogun(where either hendo won or it was a draw) but I don't see it in this fight and I don't think you do either, if u do, please explain.

mo, I basically say that because of just watching his standup and his success vs some cans and some good fighters. He has all the right techniques and power in them, he has very good lowkicks and mixes his standup very well w high kicks and knee. I mean, even if someone like Shogun only faced cans, u could still see from his fights w the cans how his standup is.
Also because he has trained under Rob Kaman. Also, everyone who has faced him hasn't wanted anything of his standup game, they've either tried to take him down or put him up against the cage. What would you say, his standup is mediocre? On a scale of 1-10, where do u range his striking, I would probably say it's 8-9.

I think it could of been a draw but if i remember round 2 didn't have a lot of action. Like I said I scored it for Vera and those 3 guys are the top of mma media heading the mma departments of score tv,mmajunkie and espn it hard to call them insane as they prob know much more than me,u or any other person talking on a poker forum about mma. My point wasn't rly who won Vera's last fight but in how it's a complete mismatch going his last fight, with that being said I am hoping for Vera to win since I strongly dislike shogun and would love a rocky like story on fox.

There is no way Elliot won the 2nd round, just rewatch it and you'll see that no objective person could score that round for Elliot, basically Vera was the one clinching Elliot against the cage more than Elliot was the one pushing Vera against the cage and Vera had a TD(trip) with close to 2 min of being on top before they got back up. He also had some nice leg kicks in the beginning of the round before it became a clinching fest.

I'm sorry but this isn't rock science where I just have to simply trust a persons theories on a complex matter bc I can't understand it, this is black and white. Before you say, my point wasn't who won Vera's last fight again, I'd like to remind you that you brought it up as an argument in favor of Shogun. If the best mathematician in the world says 2+2 = 3 in the standard axiom then I'm going to disregard his thought in that calculation and it is of no importance and shouldn't be brought up when discussing what 2+2 is.

I would rate his standup as a 6.5-7. I mean ya he has good striking technique but he has problems too...he isn't active enough at times (watch his match with Soszynski), his power is only average. Remember, he was beaten on the feet by Keith Jardine once.

As for the Marshall fight, there is a good argument for a 28-28 draw. I did think Vera won the first 2 rounds though.

Yeah, there's definitely an argument for a draw, like you can argue for that with solid arguments but there is no way in hell anyone can argue logically for a win for Elliot.

Anyone like Ed Sherman vs Shields? I think he's a definite live dog.

I like Shields here I think. Shields should be able to implement his blanket game I should think, maybe even find a sub from top.

I started talking about Marshall vs Vera to prove how hard it's going to be vs Rua. If u get floored by a TUF reject in r3 most likely shogun will crush you. As for Herman over Jake, I pick jake to win but Ed is a super live dog and I'll prob throw a bet down on him.

No one is contesting him getting dropped and how he is going to have a even more difficult time vs someone like Shogun, I just said that bringing up how some people thought Elliot won that fight is pretty silly since he wasn't close to winning the decision at all.

Are u planing on placing a bet on Vera?

No, unless it comes to my knowledge that Shogun is suffering from some injuries, hasn't trained properly or something along those lines and Vera is in the opposite, no injuries and looking very good. Definitely not placing any bets before the weigh-ins.

I'm all over Herman > Shields esp once that last minute shields $$ comes in.

Got on lauzon at 1.84 vs varner I feel like varners win over barboza while impressive was an anomaly and lauzon wins 2 in 3 or so here

Got on lauzon at 1.84 vs varner for a shade under 2u I feel like varners win over barboza while impressive was an anomaly and while hes decent lauzons better and lauzon wins 2 in 3 or so here if lauzon becomes a dog ill get on for more will be fun to see how the line moves id expext lauzon closes at 1.73 or so

Varner is a grinder who will push Lauzon past his four minute cardio threshold. Joe is one of my favorites to watch, but he will need an early finish to win this one, and i don't see Varner giving it to him.



Plus I am all over Rory vs BJ. I plan on hitting this line now hard and hopefully it gets better because of Penn's name.

Thoughts on Demetrious vs Benevidez, I think there's pretty good value on Demetrious, whereas Benevidez is 1.35. I mean it's going to be a 5 round fight and Demetrious hasn't been finished, so it's totally possible he can outwork Benevidez maybe.

I see Benavidez having the grappling edge which has cost Johnson of late. Plus Benavidez is the more violent striker with the ability to finish the fight.
2 units on Benavidez

Joe Jitsu should definitely win, he has shown a much more potent offense and Johnson at 125 doesn't have the same speed edge he had at bantam. The line IS steep though, not sure I would back Benavidez at that price.

I was thinking of betting Lauzon vs Varner as well but it's tough to call because we don't know if Varner has turned a corner or if he just had the performance of his life or what.

Was kinda surprised Machida inside distance is +110 and Machida decision is +205

I was liking Machida inside narrowly but at this price I quite like Machida UD. He'll dominate Bader, but it's not like Bader's chin is horrible, outside of being dropped by a big shot from Tito (who like it or not does have power) and as much as i'd like to see Machida come out like a house on fire and destroy Bader inside a round, the past has told us Machida will start slow, find his range, 10-9 the first round and start picking it up in late round 2 which means Bader only has to survive the third round.

I could see the fight looking like the Rampage fight only with Machida landing a few more clean strikes in r1/2 to win a clear 30-27 or potentially with Machida catching Bader clean and finishing him.

Maybe I should just bet Machida straight up, but there seems to be a lot less value at -293.

Thoughts on Davis by decision vs Davis inside distance anyone? Not much value on straight up obviously, and while I don't know much about Wagner Prado and Davis looked bad against Evans, it should be a mismatch.

Ok, it's UFC on Fox 4 early analysis time

The card

Light Heavyweight Maurício Rua -331 vs Brandon Vera+301

Vera is an elite striker who has mental focus issues and a mediocre rest of his game. Shogun is an elite LHW who has had injury concerns.

Basically, if Shogun is healthy and motivated, he should run through Vera and finish him quickly. If Shogun's knees are shot and Vera's mind is in the right place, anything could happen.

Prediction: Shogun by TKO
Value: Minimal value on either side

Light Heavyweight Lyoto Machida -293 vs Ryan Bader +276

On paper, a closer fight than Shogun/Vera but stylistically, the upset is even less likely here imo. Barring a 29-28 Machida vs Rampage style robbery, I just don't see how Bader wins this. He's not fast enough to hit Machida and take advantage of his one weakness which is a suspect chin. His wrestling isn't good enough to get and keep Machida down and Machida picks good but not elite strikers apart easily.

Prediction: Machida by easy 30-27, but he could finish Bader too
Value: I'm liking Machida by decision at +205 out of all of the bets i've seen on this so far. In a five round fight i'd take Machida by TKO, but with only three rounds and Machida likely to fight cautiously as is his style especially coming off a loss, i'd expect to see Machida pick Bader apart from range, hurt him a few times (and potentially drop him) but not get the finish. If he does finish though, it's likely to be spectacular...

Lightweight Joe Lauzon -120 vs Jamie Varner +111

I've already got a couple units on Lauzon here when he was something like -118. I was cheering for Varner over Barboza and thought the stoppage was okay but earlyish, and that if they fought again i'd favour Barboza. He had an off night and it was the fight of Varner's life. Lauzon comes out r1 Lauzon style, and Varner isn't explosive in the way that Pettis is.

Prediction

I expect Lauzon will hurt Varner standing in r1 and sub him. If he doesn't, I think Lauzon takes a close 29-28 decision, winning the first two rounds and fading in r3.

Welterweight Mike Swick vs DaMarques Johnson

Johnson has never beaten anyone good. Swick is a wild card coming off a 2 year overlay, but a couple bad-ish losses aside he's a pretty good striker and reasonably well rounded.

Prediction: Swick by TKO, r2
Value: On Swick to about -160 or so, Johnson at above +250, otherwise i'm staying away. No idea what the line will be, i'd expect Swick will open at -140 or so? It could be anything from Johnson -180 to Swick -300 though really I have absolutely no idea.

Preliminary Card (Fuel TV)
Featherweight Cole Miller vs Nam Phan

Miller is coming off an upset loss to Silver and has traded wins and losses with mid level guys. Phan is coming off a long lay off after a loss to Hettes who ran a clinic on him. Phan has better striking and Miller has a better ground game from memory. I have no idea who will win, I feel like Miller should be a favourite but for some reason I feel like he's also past his prime or isn't mentally there or something.

Prediction: Miller by r2 sub or Phan by decision

Value: If anyone's over +150 i'm taking them. At evens i'd lean Miller due to Phan disappointing me twice before against Hettes and Brown but by no means is it a huge value fight.

Light Heavyweight Phil Davis -550 vs Wagner Prado +472

Davis looked bad against Evans and Prado is unbeaten after 8 fights but then again he's never fought anyone good. Obviously Davis should win either by sub or lay and pray so the sub and decision lines might be interesting, but if Prado is good he could be worth a small play. I'd need to watch some of his fights.

Featherweight Josh Grispi vs Rani Yahya

Yahya has better wins and his recent losses have been against top competition. Grispi's only bad loss is to Roop, but i'm leaning Yahya here and will take him to -150 or so probably.

Prediction: Yahya by decision

Heavyweight Phil De Fries vs Oli Thompson

And we have a battle of the two worst HWs on the roster not named Rob Broughton. Oli Thompson seems to be the worse of the two as he's lost to Jordan and Broughton, and De Fries beat Broughton in one of the most pathetic HW fights recently in the UFC. That said, De Fries should win this in an ugly, boring decision.

Prediction: De Fries by decision (bet him to -170 or so)

Featherweight Manvel Gamburyan vs Michihiro Omigawa

Finally, an interesting fight that has the potential to be good!

I personally think Omigawa is hugely overrated but again he's only lost to good guys. Gamburyan's getting up there in age and is on a losing streak, but to good guys. I'm leaning Gamburyan here for some reason, but it's a flip, so i'll take the underdog if either of them is better than +150

Prediction: Gamburyan by split decision

Flyweight John Moraga vs Ulysses Gomez

I have no idea who these guys are. Someone else will have to give the analysis here. Looking at their records, Moraga's only lost to John Dodson who is good, but Gomez was the tachi palace fights champ, and he has a recentish decision loss to a guy i've never heard. I have no idea but on the numbers it all depends on whether the guys Moraga has fought are any good. I have no idea. I'd assume as champ Gomez has fought better competition?

Prediction: I have no idea

Best bet of the card

Lauzon over Varner, or Machida by decision. I'd say at least one of the two should hit well over half the time.

I just hope we get the Machida/Shogun 3 rubber match out of this, ideally after they coach TUF Brazil 2. Let Jones fight Gustaffson in the meantime assuming he gets by Hendo.

Solid analysis, strangely enough, Vera comes from a wrestling background and good BJJ so he's no slouch there, but his TDD doesn't seem that impressive so idk.

Also I find it strange if u look at ufc.com page it says fight between Vera n Shogun, Who's next in line for 205 title. So if Vera wins he gets a title shot, wtf? Even if Shogun wins, which he should, I can't see how he should get a title, I mean yeah he beat forrest who is a nobody pretty much now and he lost, even if it was an amazing fight, he lost to Hendo, and now if he beats Vera, who hasn't been a contender really and is kind of old news. So after 2 wins over old timers and a loss to Hendo, you get a title shot? The ones fighting for title contender status is Gustafsson, Shogun, Machida, Davis, Rashad, Bader(even if I think Bader is **** and isnt worthy, he's still in there somehow) and I think everyone in there should fight at least 2 fights before getting a shot against other ppl in that group.

They actually said if Shogun loses that Machida might get it, which (even though he's my fav LHW in contention) is stupid since he would want to be coming off 2 wins, and let Jones clean out the division properly first before we start with the rematches. I do want to see Jones/Machida 2 though since Machida is the only person who clearly look a round from Jones and looked to belong in the cage with him thus far but assuming Jones rematches Shogun, he should fight Gustaffson for #1 contendership, or if Jones fights Gustaffson, then Machida/Shogun 3 as an epic rubber match would make sense for #1 contender as the winner would then have a win streak going and be coming off a win over a top 5 LHW

Sound reasonable, I just find it strange that Gustafsson hasn't been given an opponent yet and I don't think he's going to wait for 4 more months before he fights, when Jones is going to take a break. This is a similar situation to HW division w Junior Dos Santos vs Cain, everyone knows Cain has the best shot at defeating JDS, but he just lost to a brutal KO to him and it wouldn't be fair imo to give him a shot after 1 win, which he got now. I think he should have at least fought 1 more time before he got the shot.