Heavyweight is by far the division I least enjoy trying to pick/handicap :P

For what it's worth, if he's stopped juicing JDS doesn't seem to have lost any size - he weighed in at 241, pretty consistent with his previous fights, and he didn't look flabby or anything.

Anywho I've only got two bets so far on this card:

Lewis 0.75u @ 1.73
JDS 1u @ 1.95

Just bet 1 unit on Unibet on Rothwell by DQ, KO, TKO at +300. Pretty good odds imo.

Sub isn't included?

After his last fight it's a testament to how thin the HW division is that Gonzaga has a job. Sadly for Gonzaga his best strategy is to play it safe for the first round+ until Lewis starts gassing. The more fence clinching the better for Gonzaga but Lewis could easily KO him. But if he does a safe play and loses he will be cut for sure.

no sub... it could happen but I can't see JDS going for a TD like Barnett did. If it's a KO it will be a punch on the feet that drops JDS and then Rothwell goes in for the punch combo finish.

Be an interesting fight to watch for sure, I debating putting a unit on Gonzaga decision. Could easily see them both gassing early and it becoming a war of who can stand up

Good luck! I also have Rothwell ITD @ +180. The book I use combos Sub,DQ,TKO/KO all as 1 play.

Ditto - I can't remember which analyst it was, but one of the ones I read in the leadup to this was making the point that JDS, for all his other faults, doesn't tend to make the kind of mistakes that would leave him open for a choke the way Barnett got caught. I tend to agree.

0.15u Chirico +175

I know nothing about either fighter but i'm awake so let's get some sweats going. I did add a Gonzaga ML play he'll get KO'd in r1 a lot if not he wins via actually having technique if no fight IQ

If anyone has tips for the no name prelims I want sweats

On a ridiculous heater this weekend on non-MMA betting hopefully it continues

UFN 86 Risk $2220.70

Ben Rothwell (+105) vs Junior dos Santos $200.00 for $210.00
Ben Rothwell wins in round 2 (+500) $20.00 for $100.00
Ben Rothwell wins by TKO/KO (+305) $35.00 for $106.75
Ben Rothwell/Junior Dos Santos starts round 2 (-218) $218.00 for $100.00

Gabriel Gonzaga (+155) vs Derrick Lewis $100.00 for $155.00
Gabriel Gonzaga wins by 3 round decision (+704) $50.00 for $352.00

Francis Ngannou (-125) vs Curtis Blaydes $125.00 for $100.00
Francis Ngannou wins by TKO/KO (+265) $40.00 for $106.00
Francis Ngannou wins in round 3 (+1125) $10.00 for $112.50
Francis Ngannou wins by 3 round decision (+710) $50.00 for $355.00

Marcin Tybura wins by 3 round decision (+315) vs Tim Johnson $50.00 for $157.50

Jan Blachowicz/Igor Pokrajac Over 1½ (-145) $100.00 for $68.97
Jan Blachowicz wins by 3 round decision (+225) $50.00 for $112.50

Maryna Moroz (-165) vs Cristina Stanciu $82.50 for $50.00
Maryna Moroz wins by submission (+210) $25.00 for $52.50

Zak Cummings (+150) vs Nicolas Dalby $100.00 for $150.00
Zak Cummings scorecards = no action (-146) $58.40 for $40.00
Alejandro Perez (+125) vs Ian Entwistle $150.00 for $187.50
Ian Entwhistle wins in round 1 (+170) $75.00 for $127.50
Mairbek Taisumov/Damir Hadzovic Under 2½ (+122) $100.00 for $122.00
Damian Stasiak/Filip Pejic Under 2½ (+148) $100.00 for $148.00
Damian Stasiak wins by submission (+450) $40.00 for $180.00

Lucas Martins (-115) vs Robert Whiteford $115.00 for $100.00
Cyril Asker (+140) vs Jared Cannonier $100.00 for $140.00
Cyril Asker wins by TKO/KO (+325) $35.00 for $113.75
Bojan Velickovic (-192) vs Alessio Di Chirico $76.80 for $40.00
Bojan Velickovic wins in round 3 (+1400) $10.00 for $140.00

Fights to go distance over 5½ (+122) $40.00 for $48.80
Fights to go distance over 6½ (+316) $25.00 for $79.00
Fights to go distance over 7½ (+803) $15.00 for $120.45
Fights to go distance over 8½ (+2474) $10.00 for $247.40
Fights to go distance over 9½ (+9375) $5.00 for $468.75

Lucas Martins/Rob Whiteford FOTN award winner (+1000) $10.00 for $100.00

Regarding fighters going through absolute wars, so take jds for example. He was a beast and backed up by a great chin, then he had long round wars turning himself into putty.

The obvious damage external is easy to understand but what is it internally that happens that so drastically changes the fighter? Not the fighter per say but their resilance,

Does modern sports science understand what gets broken damaged or changed that even if the fighter takes an extended break, jds took a year off right, that indeed it is correct to say x fighter looks 60% of their piror self.

I guess it tracks back to skull cavity and what happens to the brain tissue or nervs during high impact?


No way to repair through stem cells or what ever the damaged brain tissue?


Must be once the brain gets a huge impact it never is the same again, the actual nerons, the circuits, the pathways get rerouted damaged,


JDS body maybe as good or better than at any time but if you get seriously hurt in the cage it stays in your mind platform, your brain tissue, would love for sports science to figure out away to undo the damage of major life and death mma fights, the fighters are so talented and deserve more from the sport (prize fighting) as their bodys fail, jds in his prime was daunting prospect, reminds me of evander hoilifield.

Jds looks like a roman gadiator from lore

Ok instead of making my own picks (other than being on JDS and Gonzaga sub although I added dec there) I just tailed a bunch of Jim's bets. Took Entwistle, JDS and Chirico and no plays on Blachowicz and Tybura or full card props, otherwise pretty much tailed everything at various prices for partial units

Close decision, had the dog, other dude got the nod, happy enough with that especially since bet was small. Let's go Asker and under for this next one. Sherdog had a UD for Chirico 29-28x3 so I guess I was on the right side (was watching the fight and seemed close but not watching closely enough to tell who won)

oh ffs i just realised i misclicked the over instead of under for this fight so instead of being down 0.3u for it i'm down 0.75u for it

Let's go Martins I guess.

Rothwell bigger than I expected compared to JDS, just saw the weigh ins, looks like more than 20lbs

Very tempted to play the under for Gonzaga fight only holding off because of how conservatively Gonzaga's been fighting lately, I expect him to either take Lewis down and finish him quickly via sub or get pummelled unconscious quickly but if it goes the distance I expect Gonzaga will always get the nod

I feel like Martins won all 3 rounds but they were all close. Expecting him to win the decision to get me back to being down a small partial unit for card but you never know

I can see that one going either way, Martins threw so little...

Correct judging imo, the rounds were close, Martins definitely won r1, I had him winning r2 despite the takedown and edging r3 but it was also close. Idk, i'm fine with a 29-28 but if two judges had given it to Whiteford i'd have thought he was very unlucky

Got Pejic last minute straight up and Stasiak sub here

Eww I suck taking the homecrowd guy last minute

Thanks Jim for the sub prop though it was +5xx when I hit it so still profit for the fight, think I won 0.6u or so for this one, gets me up a small partial unit for the card

Added Tybura straight up so i'm basically rolling with JimGunn until the main event now except not taking the Blachowicz line

lol wtf entwistle stops fight to tell ref he's greased, ref stops to check and says hes not and 'no more of this bull****'

weird start

dude, try a different submission i suggest a triangle choke

what a weird fight. back to being down just under a unit for the card

Adding on an extra half unit on Moroz at -165

edit: verbal submission? and greasing accusation again, very odd fight.

I felt like that last fight was almost free money- either Entwhistle wins in round 1 via leg lock (hence my hedge) or Perez wins at + money on his ML. Played out as expected.

Nice pick here on Cummings, regardless of what happens from here (10-9 Cummings) looks like we're on the right side

Surprised he gave up the sub attempt maybe he was worried about blowing his arms out going for the sub in a fight he has been dominating so far

Should be back close to even if Cummings can get the W

Bovada has no lines on props for this event

I think Rothwell is probably a good bet but I'm gonna leave it alone entirely. We'll see for the next card