Okay then.

Sick value bet. Glad you avoided -365.

going thru 2p2 threads on this saturday night mr wallstreet/high roller

if obama wins, can swoop say "i told you so" or not?

a year ago (?) when i wrote this it was prob true (except for democrat reelection bit, oops fml), but i don't remember when i wrote this. plz go thru thread again and let me kno the date so i can defend myself, i dont want to let you beat me najdorfdefence

naj if i were to post lots of evidence suggesting the overwhelming strength of The Recency Bias would the world just explode

Wiper, I don't know Wtf you're talking about. I've never broadcast the youngstown team.

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Arizona: Obama 44%, Romney 42% (Rocky Mountain Poll)

Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

AZ is probably an outlier but the D senate candidate looks good there

Accounting for PPP Bias, Obama is up 3-4 in Ohio there probably, still a decent buffer. If a second poll shows AZ in play though, Romney is in real trouble not so much because he will lose the state (if he does the election is long gone) but because he has to spend money on defense there.

NH looks decent for romney but it's worth so few EVs it doesnt matter. Even if Romney takes VA and FL off the table, as long as Obama's OH and WI hold (and the numbers look good), one of NV/IA is enough to get to 270 and he's marginally ahead in both states

Basically even in a worst case realistic scenario (short of a further collapse in his national numbers) he's still a coinflip, and if anything goes better than terrible for him he should be reelected.

For any quoted post, you can click the little icon next to their bolded name to see the original post. It will say 'originally posted by name x' and then have an icon for you to click.

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i got in at -150, I don't even remember when I made that bet. I sorta feel stupid having money tied up that long lol.

At least I got good odds!

-190 at 5D

Sunday, October 14, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

Romney has a similar advantage in our daily swing state tracking.

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.

Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% support to Obama’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate in the race, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

This is the sixth day in a row Romney has led the daily Swing State Survey, continuing to reflect the modest bounce he earned from the first presidential debate. Prior to that, the president had led for 17 of the previous 19 days, and the candidates had been tied twice. Most of these findings are based on responses prior to Thursday night’s vice presidential debate.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

In the swing states, 44% of voters are now certain they’ll vote for Romney and won’t change their minds. Forty-one percent (41%) are certain they will vote for the president.

Nationally, Romney also leads by two points in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

oh, when you said you've been to youngstown and cleveland i assumed you meant you were there broadcasting. mostly because, why the **** else would you be in youngstown?

Went from saying you have value at -1000 to now saying well hey hes still a favorite. Market=hitler you=jews.

poor taste poogs

poogs admits to no knowledge of political markets but always good for an opinion though

ehh probably a little too harsh. my apologies.

worst best worst use of godwin's law

I have to admit this election is a huge mind**** for me. I thought the election was basically over a couple weeks ago, and my gut still sees value in Obama -200 but...I dunno. Public betting seems pretty hugely on Obama. It's just very hard for me to see a road for Romney to win this. How can he win Ohio where UE is below the national average and Obama bailed everyone out? Rasmussen's most recent poll of Ohio has Obama up 1. If Romney is still down 1 in a R-leaning poll at a time of peak momentum, it would take another major Obama gaffe/scandal to put him over the top.

Naj absolutely crushed the reaction to first debate tho. Markets were predictably slow to price it in. But I still don't think Romney gets over the top.

Just curious what were the lines for obama vs mccain? That's probably the safest best in the world.

Romney can lose OH, MI, PA, WI, NH and win 269-269 with House tiebreaker. Most people like the WaPo are unaware of this. [they said he Had to win either NH or WI if lose Ohio]

Romney is up 5 in Maine's 2nd district which would make the above 270-268.

So, he'd have to win FL, VA, CO, NV, IA. NC and IN are in the bag already.

Obvs, losing OH drops Mitt's odds a whole bunch! But if he wins I think that means he's won NH and almost all the swing states. JMHO.

Bills, assume this is any other election with 2 candidates, do you think we can really know if the candidate A who seems to be leading is really 60% vs 66% given that virtually every national and swing-state poll is within MoE?

Do you wonder about the fact that almost everybody overestimated Obama's MoV in 2008?
Marist, Reuters/Zogby by 3.7, IBD, NBC, Gallup by 3.7 lol, CBS, ABC/WaPo. Seems like valuable data to consider, 5 major polls being well high. YMMV.

I also wonder about the 9% response rate on live polls, and 4-5% for robopolls. I'm never home when they call, for example.

What's with the myth of Rass being R-leaning?

1500 robocalls daily, closest to McCain's final number of anyone out of dozens of pollsters, had Obama winning in 2006 by 5-8 the entire last month or so, they had this race tied couple days ago when *every* other poll had BHO losing by 1-4 pts.

Rass nailed WI recall when 538 and all the D-polls said Walker was going to lose, and he won easily.

i havent paid attn to this thread besides lol'ing at mike ski

how did obama's lead in polls shrink so much? is this a result of romney's debate victory, or something else?