I have a local that will take large amounts on anything on pinnacle.I was thinking of putting 10k(-155) on the dems to win the 2012 presidential election.Don't have to put the money up so tying up money isn't a concern.Anyone think the republican nominee will have any chance?

It's also a good life hedge

hahahahhahaha

You sure this local will be ok with that sort of bet?
Will local still even be in the gambling game that far down-the-line?

Yes, I do. It all depends on the candidate and this far out you're betting against an unknown variable.

Hilary was still the hot name at this point last election cycle if I remember right.



^
This man might cost you moniez

Also - you betting Obama or Democratic nominee? Birthers may keep him from even running lolz

Well another thing I saw was Obama to be Democratic nominee for president at -1250 on 5Dimes. I mean, I'm not betting this because you have to put away money for so long for such a small return, but when does this ever lose?

TRUMP 2012

3 possibilities between now and then
1)Impeachment
2)Small % chance he really wasn't born here (might just be hiding BC b/c it says white for race - no real biggie there but adds credence to 3rd pssblty)
3)Unlikely primary opposition - alot of the far left is not happy and you might not get great voter turnout from some of the independents or other pro Obama demo's from last time around. OTOH the unions are in the bag regardless obv

- if it gets to the primary stage I'd lay -2000 for a true line (which is the scenario you're thinking I believe)

I plan on unloading on this right after either the RNC or when they name the Rep. primary winner. Repubs don't have a candidate in 2012 who can beat Obama IMO.

^^^
All of them can or would

Romney, Huckabee, Palin, Bachman, Santorum, and prbly Gingrich would lose IMO

Democratic nominee just assuming it will be Obama.I know guys like Trump,Paul or Gingrich know much more about economics and would probably be better for the country but I don't think that holds weight with the voters.There are around 25M black and hispanic voters.I'm sure that number will be higher in 2012.He should carry them at a 95% clip.There are 22M government employees I'm guessing that's 85% dem.Of all US citizens 18+ 52% pay zero taxes and foodstamp/welfare rolls are at all time highs.People will not vote for someone who wants to cut government spending no matter how financially irresponsible Obama is.Just my thinking.

Yea this isn't a fly by night guy.Been dealing w him like 14 years.

I realize what you're saying and agree with most of it. But like I said Obama was a wild card dark horse most of the time. If West or Cain is in there they'll take a good chunk of his base and you can't the dismiss possibility of strong voter apathy, much of it last time was anti-Bush vitriol. The Hispanic vote is more geographically diverse, it's not a straight party line demo

And the appeal of Trump during a big economic downturn is obv - similarly his appealing celebrity status to sheeple is obv

I skipped Paul but he can't carry the primary

4)Dies.

In all seriousness, Obama is an incumbent who is very good at campaigning. He will be a sizable favorite come November 2012 (at least around -200). This gets forgotten amidst the talking heads spouting about the news of the day. Relax though. You have a lot of time, so look to accumulate a position over time. Buy at favorable prices on signals of Obama weakness (scandals, negative news, hype from the GOP caucuses/primaries).

FYP. Can he snag all the on the fence states again after his disaster so far? Too bad Republicans don't have an awesome candidate

If the republicans and tea party don't unite than the democrats will win 100% of the time. I would think that they would unite before the election but since it hasn't happened yet this would most likely be a good bet to take.

I had it listed and then backspaced b/c I dont need no mo black choppers round here

That's b/c everyone is bickering for their horse. Once it gets narrowed to 1 v 1 - they'll be more than united, lesser of 2 evils and the sort.

That's like saying if the pro choice sect doesn't align with the Dems they have no shot. Even within the Tea Party there is dissent. The thinking, logical half want Paul (but they also know he's not electable) and the mouth breethers want Palin/Bachman but both sides will vote against Obama

agreed

LOL - I'm 4-0 betting political and -155 seems like a fair number - in fact I believe it's a very good number! I put 1K on him at -125 about a year ago! Sort of a no brainer if you think about it and are not swayed by your own political opinions!

There is a political website that looks at all the numbers (sort of like a Political Abstract) and it's looking pretty good. They started the ONLY way he would not get elected is if the economy tanked and it is doing real well.

if i was broke and took credit card advances to fund my lifestyle it could create the illusion that i was doing okay just like the US is right now

so not sure how the economy isn't tanking, it's treading water because the gov't borrowing tons of money to do so. can't do that forever

The question to ask: Are the Independents going to vote for Obama? Right now, the answer is no.

Print more money, then everyone can be rich.