we should just fade ourselves in the 3rd quarter

Dolphins Bills down to a pick now that Bills are resting starters. This will be an exciting coach’s showdown between Tuamagic and the Bills backup squad.

Adding Baskonia -2 -105 (at -3.5 didn't see much value but -2 yes)

We are 1-1 so far today

Circa reposted +115/-145 Flores letsgo dolphins

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Book is offering early super bowl odds:
NFC team (+4 -120), ML +150
AFC team (-4 -120), ML -200

Wonder if there's any value in NFC +150 ML? if KC gets knocked off could be good value and if not can just hedge.

Really curious what a Bills Packers mathup gets capped at. Do Packers get the edge there?

Bovada has Colts -210 to make playoffs. Only max 250 to win though

I have that as ~ fair value, with Pitt resting and maybe Buf it's not good for them.

Bummer, thought it was +EV. I wonder if I've ever even posted one +EV play in this thread ever

Is anyone betting Watt this week at -200 and hedging with Howard? Maybe no reason to hedge? I took Watt at plus odds but I'm wondering if he is entering close to lock territory and I should add more.

Bought infinite Watt at +300 last week, then +200, and still more at +110 yesterday. Reluctantly hedged some with Howard +750 today. Helps to have a bunch of Donald at +450ish tho, idk how I'd play this if I only had Watt +200 or similar and nothing else. Donald's been super overrated in the odds for quite a while, but if PIT rests Watt and Donald has a monster game in the do or die match vs the Cardinals... maybe he could still win? Doubt the Rams will be scoring a ton of points so it's going to be quite a spot for Donald to showcase his talents, but he should need a hell of a game to win DPOY imo. If it was just Watt vs Howard and the latter requiring 1-2 INTs vs the Bills, I guess I'd advocate hedging. But if we think Donald is also a factor, I guess I'd just ride with Watt until the end, but I'm not sure if I'd really want to add to my position either at -200.

Yeah good post I think I probably just hold watt and be happy I have some at plus odds

Yeah. Also, assuming the bookies will have this open after the last round and until the awards, there's a chance Watt will be available at better than -200 at some point. I have no idea if PIT will play him or not but it doesn't seem crazy to think they'd rest him. Tbh it feels like a bit of a trap to buy Watt at -200 now if you already have him at plus odds; if Donald/Howard has a monster game you'd get better odds later on, and if they don't oh well it's a lock, you'll be happy with your position and you might still get not that much worse than -200 since Donald's presence in the top 3 will probably keep the odds from crashing until the end. Hell if Watt doesn't play a full game vs the Bills and rack up more sacks it might still be -200 after Sunday even if Donald/Howard don't have spectacular games.

Disclaimer: It's my first year betting big time on the NFL awards and I don't know anything about anything

I bought some more Watt this morning -125 but yea -200 seems like a pass. If Donald and Howard don’t do anything I could still see the market being -200 Watt, +200 Donald and Howard priced pretty dead. And if Donald saves a goffless kuppless Rams and puts up a couple sacks to edge Watt in that category it could even flip back to Donald fav. Seems like everyone overreacts to the most recent data point?

The whole DPOY market has been quite a mess for the last few weeks tho, it's probably closer to fair odds now than it's been in forever. I checked and I bought Watt at +300 before the Colts game last week, when he was leading Donald in virtually every stats category yet Donald was like -263 or something ridiculous when he should've been the third favorite after Watt and Howard.

These are extremely rough ballpark figures but I'd guess this is like 60-70% Watt, 25%ish Donald, rest Howard. Howard is a bit difficult to estimate tho, but I doubt he wins without getting more INTs vs the Bills, probably needs two of them. Got a bad feeling about a sick Donald comeback tbh but I don't think betting him at current odds can be justified

I'm on Flores, even at a paltry +120 here. I think the current political climate with respect to race makes him much more likely to win than if we ran this same season ten years ago. It's looking likely that the MVP will be white and the DPY will be white, so the eminently race-conscious journos who vote on this are going to be desperate for minority representation. Rivera has already won the award twice, plus he'll finish with a losing record. Nobody seems to be talking about Tomlin, and the Steelers really faded down the stretch.

Flores beating McDermott in the final game would be a strong statement to those already inclined to vote for him, and with the Bills resting players, it's about a coin flip. I think the extra value of Flores at plus money comes from the fact he may get the award even if the Dolphins lose twice to the privileged McDermott.

1-2 -1.15
YTD: 15-13 +0.9

12/30
Zvezda +3.5 -106
Bayern +5

Yeah I ****ed up, wasnt paying attention and didn't realize Bills are going to rest starters. Colts -210 to make playoffs is most definitely -EV

Edit: A darts play for anyone who wants a sweat, Chisnall +167. A couple ELO-based projection systems I've seen have it as 50/50

I guess Chisnall is going to lose bo7 after being up 3-0 in sets

Never mind he pulls it out!

Tailed and won, thanks for the pick!

You're welcome. We did it everyone. We provided the board with a winner. I should just retire now on top.

2-0 +2
YTD: 17-13 +2.9

Pretty sure this is actually +EV this time. Bovada has Washington to win NFC East -120. Washington wins with either a win against Philadelphia or a tie plus Dallas loss/tie. Pinnacle no vig moneyline for Washington vs Philadelphia is Washington -127.5.

Ben swished his first attempt less than 4 minutes in, only need 3 more this year to cash. EZ game.

Did dolphins bills move back to 3 because of fitz out for covid? No other players high risk close contact and Tua was the starter anyway, what were the chances we would see fitz magic again? And if we did then that means the dolphins are in trouble anyway. Seems like an overreaction unless for another reason.

it was a beautiful 3 too. gonna give him some confidence going forward

Also if Bills are back to -3 then Colts -210 to make playoffs is good isn't it? But still wondering if Dolphins +3 is value because I'm not sure why the line went back to Bills -3