Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting - Page 251 - Sports Betting

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01-18-2021 , 05:33 PM

#6251

MDCmarty

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 10

I commend you guys for your hard work. This is a major grind with few outs and hard moves off your bets.

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01-18-2021 , 05:59 PM

#6252

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,268

anyone running into issues with BM pulling the props early today? they're opening the live betting ten mins before the game which wipes all the props off

wanted to bet Bruins faceoff over Islanders and now all that potential EV is flushed down the toilet.

They did the same thing for the first game

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01-18-2021 , 06:13 PM

#6253

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,268

rip easy -155 winner. they're onto us

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01-18-2021 , 08:26 PM

#6254

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

I respect outs are important but just putting out another call for any book with opening faceoff prop. I've spent some time looking through books and the only one I've found is jazz but they do -120 and didn't offer faceoff props at all today so doesn't seem reliable. PMs accepted ofc

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01-18-2021 , 08:52 PM

#6255

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,268

it seems ok now. we shipped phi easy

massive faceoff value alert

Sebastian Aho looks like he's taking it for Carolina. He's horrible.

I'm projecting Ryan Johansen which is -153.

Aho is a 40% faceoff winner so it shouldn't really matter who he is against. Pound that -115 boys

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01-18-2021 , 08:53 PM

#6256

zplusz

banned

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 656

Once we've conquered face-offs, may I suggest we move on to the ultimate of "first thing to happen sweat" bets,

Which NBA team to score 1st?

This is an extremely tough, but IMO beatable prop

Key comes down to who wins tip-offs more than their fair share, similar to face offs, rite? I'll let more skilled thinkers elaborate

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01-18-2021 , 08:54 PM

#6257

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,268

same with St Louis. Logan Couture isn't good. Ryan O'Reilly looks like he's taking it. Arond -160

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01-18-2021 , 09:12 PM

#6258

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,268

Johansen easy win Aho
Ryan o'Reilly ez win over Couture

on a nice 13-2 run the last couple of days
thanks everyone we did it

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01-18-2021 , 09:52 PM

#6259

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,268

not sure if it's JT Miller or Elias Petterson taking the faceoff for Vancouver since Bo Horvat isn't but pretty sure we got Elias Lindholm taking it for Calgary and it's either -195 or +140 so maybe lets not bet this one

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01-18-2021 , 09:54 PM

#6260

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,268

got another min lock with Montreal

predicting Kyle Turris (Nashville) vs. Danault.

Danault -177

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01-18-2021 , 09:56 PM

#6261

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,268

same with Anaheim game

got Joel Eriksson Ek going for Minnesota. Thinking it could be Ryan Getzlaf so that is -168.

Ducks -115

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01-18-2021 , 09:58 PM

#6262

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,268

so no Getzlaf. Looking like Derek Grant instead. I have fair for that as -128. Still some value but not much.

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01-18-2021 , 10:03 PM

#6263

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

Based on line movement you took CGY?

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01-18-2021 , 10:04 PM

#6264

ILikeToParty

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 1,496

Gibson U30.5 (-130)
Keskinen U33.5 (-142)
Markstrom U35.5 (-115)
Kemper U34.5 (-120)

Any of those any good with my local, only thing I compared it to was Pinny

Thanks for any replies

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01-18-2021 , 10:06 PM

#6265

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,268

Quote:

Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog

Based on line movement you took CGY?

i didn't bet anything there. don't know who is taking it for horvat and it's either a really good bet or a really bad one. best to skip. there's enough bets out there don't need to force it.

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01-18-2021 , 10:13 PM

#6266

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,268

turns out it was JT Miller and was missed out on a free -195 that won at -115 RIP

Derek Grant beats Joel ez

Danault beat Kyle Turris ez

ez

ez

ez

ez

ez

thank you to whoever wrote that hierarchial log5 bayes whatever paper instead of say making ez money

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01-18-2021 , 10:26 PM

#6267

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

Was just curious because I assumed it was you moving these faceoff lines but it appears there are others out there. Every bet you post is -130 or -140 on BM instantly. No complaints, I'm impressed.

This has opening tip offs up through 2017. Andre Drummond is a historically great beast at opening tip offs. He is already 4/5 this season. How much does winning the opening tip off increase chances of scoring first?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/m...ics/Dashboard1

Edit: reddit thread on this. The author finds teams that win opening tip off score first 60% of the time, plus came up with an ELO rating, etc. https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comment...e_the_best_at/

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 01-18-2021 at 10:42 PM. Reason: Add reddit

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01-18-2021 , 11:03 PM

#6268

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,268

ari/vegas
predict Johan Larsson vs. I believe Ryan Reaves

Reaves sample size is too small. Pass.

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01-18-2021 , 11:49 PM

#6269

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,268

ended up being Kolesar who has 1 faceoff in his entire career. He's only played 3 professional games so that might be why.

Going forward I think we aren't going to have any bets on VGK games. They seem to spread it around a lot. Three players have almost the same amount of opening faceoffs taken (Karlsson, Nosek, Stastny)

Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 01-19-2021 at 12:04 AM.

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01-19-2021 , 01:38 AM

#6270

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

Quote:

I also wanted to see how often a team who gets the ball first actually does score first. Again using the play by play data, I could test for each team and see when they won the jump ball, and when they score first if they did. Looking at the results, the league average rate of scoring first when winning the jump is about 60%.

I ran a Chi-Square Test of Homogeneity to see if this rate differs for the individual team, and based on a significance value of 0.05 found no significant difference. Thus, I used 60% as a universal value. Future iterations can improve this part of the methodology.

That's from the reddit thread. So maybe we can improve on the 'first scoring rate w/ tipoff won' methodology.

- look at it by fave/dog
- home/away (plus referee influence?)
- off rbnd% (higher means better chance to score off miss after winning tip off? I know this is a stretch but just trying to think of options)

What do you think sigs

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 01-19-2021 at 01:46 AM. Reason: Added ref influence

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01-19-2021 , 03:58 AM

#6271

atrainpsu

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,840

Lol. I had a response but got logged out and too lazy to retype. I worked on this many years ago and it sucked. You need to find a pretty significant edge (65%ish) on the jumpball to just break even at -115 (53.5%) on first basket.

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01-19-2021 , 09:28 AM

#6272

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,339

Spoiler:

Daily: 8-7-0, -0.9u
YTD: 27-26-0, -2.09u, 69.68u risked, -3.0% ROI

Winning more plays than I lose doesn't cut it when laying odds. We have to do better. It's crazy to think a single Brent Burns SOG is making the difference between an overall winning record and a losing record (he had 4 last night). Such is betting SOGs.

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01-19-2021 , 09:33 AM

#6273

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,339

I have been getting a lot of PMs lately. I really want to respond but I won't out of principle. This is Crowdsource Syndicate where we conduct business in the open. Let's discuss things together here so everyone can contribute and benefit.

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01-19-2021 , 11:44 AM

#6274

Poogs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 4,501

I haven’t started yet Tom. I always wait until they play like 10 games or so. I’ve been getting things ready though and I’m actually gonna send you a quick pm right now about something we talked about a while ago if you wouldn’t mind checking it out. I’m really not looking forward to battling sigs on these though. That didn’t turn out good for me with pitcher Ks last year.

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01-19-2021 , 12:35 PM

#6275

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,339

I'll check my PMs but I can't respond unfortunately due to ethical restraints. I definitely have a lot of room for improvement. I feel like I'm probably around break-even against Pinnacle. That's OK for a bet with a ~6.5% theoretical hold, but also not great since I project decent-sized edges on all my bets which clearly isn't the case. Definitely post your thoughts to your blog or in here so we can work on improving things together.

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