They have the Bucs rated ahead of the Chiefs right now. The Chiefs are going to close -3/-3.5 @ TB this week. This is common place for DVOA. It's a bad ratings system.

NDSU bench went 0-8 in the first half. Maybe the starters can gut it out and play the whole second half..

NDSU was down 50-45 with five minutes left and didn't make a single field goal the rest of the game.

Oof

Who we playing tomorrow sigley?

I'm gonna be on Alba Berlin +5

Also like Olympiacos -1 but not sure how many of their players died of COVID.

Efes also died from covid.

i took

CSKA -6
Tel Aviv -3.5 [-4 is ok]
Berlin +5
Efes/Zvevda u156.5 [covid lock]

and for Fri
Valencia +3 [good to +1]
Valencia o155.5 [good to 158]

Bovada lets me bet 3k on euroleague. Oh how I wish I had the br to bet that much

What's the sharpest book for Euroleague stuff? I've gotten the ass end of too many wagers anchoring on Pinny's lines, convinced it's not them.

Holy Christ. totals too? Bovada is usually super slow to move and you can usually chase steam and do well there. Until they limit you, that is.

Totals are 1750 actually. Yeah I think that's a good idea. Plus whenever sigley is kind enough to share picks.

Also ty for the Nova pick najdorf, that sweet sweet clv

I didn't know the Lehigh kid for BC wasn't eligible yet since the NCAA is still doing whatever they do in a year where they said anyone could transfer.

I'm not sure Nova will even win the game.

UNC was losing also, and they covered 18 or whatever it was.

Just eat that sweet sweet CLV.

today has been an amazing college basketball day. can't wait until the first saturday when i go 0-99 and lose them all by half a point

I shall have faith! It's so odd I put the clv in my wallet but when I open to pay for stuff moths fly out

"Daddy, why don't we have a turkey for Thanksgiving?"

"Well, you see Timmy, supermarkets don't accept closing line value as payment."

Anyone on or against the same player props i listed some posts back?

I think if you're able to, a better idea would be to bet smaller markets minutes before kickoff.

If they only have your results to go on (not CLV) it will be harder for them to tell if you're sharp or just a donk on a heater and your account should last a lot longer.

Of course not everyone can or wants to originate, but that's what I would strive for.

Would like to hear other people's thoughts. Maybe I'm underestimating how hard this is, even in very small markets.

I appreciate the insight greatly. I have been wondering the best way to exploit bovada.

I like the idea of waiting until close because it also means I won't be taking a line and then having it move against me. For example, I picked off three stale CBB lines last evening but I was at the whim of line moves until close. Fortunately only one moved against me while two moved for me, but doesn't this suggest I should only be taking stale lines near close?

As for picking at smaller markets, I like that for obvious reasons but I am concerned smaller markets won't be accurate enough for me to get bad lines? Is that a valid concern?

Ty to any and all help.

My context comes mostly from stale soccer lines vs Pinny, so take this for what it's worth. Sample size is also relatively small (~750 soccer wagers across the last couple months since resuming tracking results).

That said:

343 wagers made on the same day as the game. 6.1% ROI.

395 wagers made 1+ days in advance. 6.9% ROI.

246 wagers made 2+ days in advance. 7.7% ROI.

I think this makes sense. Lines should sharpen as kickoff approaches, and while I should avoid more bad lines by waiting, I also avoid all the best ones too. As is I end up with lots of wagers placed 2-3+ days out that end up as 20-30+ cent arbs with the closing line, and that subset of wagers is obviously mega profitable. I have 413 wagers tracked as beating the Pinny vig-free closing line significantly and they're at 18.9% ROI.

Obviously the cost to doing this is the subset of wagers where the closing line moves against me. These are big losers. But overall, I think they're worth the price of admission and I'm getting a little better at identifying lines that look stale but are just a bad price on Pinnacle.

I think I'm running hot but not tremendously so.

You guys have any leans for the match III? Seems like format is going to favor Manning and Curry a bit. Charles is just going to tank Mickelson too hard. I guess I am riding Curry/Manning at -170.

olympiakos is now +1.5 i like that number if you can get it

not sure what the steam is thinking

Lol the Johnson reception is really bad now but the Cooper yards is good. Schultz meh. Everything else as of this moment is basically flat, maybe a little movement against me.

Ty this is so helpful

Kerryon Johnson? I have him for 31.28 yards receiving and 3.4 receptions

or Duke? Duke would be bad. I have him 17 rec and ~2 receptions

mckissic tho i think is gonna get like 10 receptions. alex smith is super conservative and loves checking down

Duke :-/

Yeah I dont have a model I'm just puttering around doing some handicapaments, hoping player props are soft enough for me to use stats and beat. My Duke Johnson bets would suggest...no.

fwiw i locked duke in every milly maker entry i did today

hoping deshaun fails and best way for him to fail is for duke to go off today

This is at Bovada? I'm surprised they haven't limited you yet. I purposely avoid chasing steam with the soft books I still have access to to avoid getting limited for as long as possible.