Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting - Page 222 - Sports Betting

Good luck in your dfs. Here's to Duke going off for both you and me. Detroit (6.19) allows the second highest yards/target to RBs in the NFL, only behind GB (6.49).

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11-26-2020 , 12:04 PM

#5527

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

Hand and Bryant are out too which bears well for Duke. CJ Prosise shouldn't be an issue. He got outsnapped 3:1 last week. If BOB was the coach I'd worry.

Only thing I worry is that they'll be playing from behind and air it out to Cooks and Fuller every down.

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11-26-2020 , 12:10 PM

#5528

qotd

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 129

Quote:

Originally Posted by HipsterDufes

This is at Bovada? I'm surprised they haven't limited you yet. I purposely avoid chasing steam with the soft books I still have access to to avoid getting limited for as long as possible.

No, not Bovada. Been waiting on them until I grow the BR a little bit so I can take better advantage of the soft stuff before they get me. I would probably not make these plays there.

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11-26-2020 , 01:21 PM

#5529

iceman9870

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 43

on peterson to score a td +150 (good to 125, brown o 7.5 yds receiving, kerryon o 19.5 rec yds

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11-26-2020 , 01:29 PM

#5530

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

How much is a rushing/receiving/passing yard worth? Or is that complicated to answer?

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11-26-2020 , 02:12 PM

#5531

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

Nice call on AP touchdown.

Johnson ran a wheel route and was open for a TD that would've cashed the over receiving yards and he was grabbed for a PI of course

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11-26-2020 , 02:13 PM

#5532

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

maybe BOB is coaching the texans again

of course CJ gets the TD and not Duke

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11-26-2020 , 02:37 PM

#5533

qotd

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 129

Quote:

Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog

How much is a rushing/receiving/passing yard worth? Or is that complicated to answer?

Entirely too context-dependent imo.

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11-26-2020 , 04:15 PM

#5534

DicedPineapples

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 152

Anyone ever play at Sports411? Is that the PPH version of bookmaker?

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11-26-2020 , 05:46 PM

#5535

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

Quote:

Originally Posted by qotd

Entirely too context-dependent imo.

Thats understandable. For example, I can bet u79.5 -115 rushing yards when pinny has u75.5 +102 (after taking out vig) and I would love to know how much of an edge that is. Or another one u79.5 +110 receiving yards when pinny no vig is u74.5 +101

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 11-26-2020 at 06:11 PM.

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11-26-2020 , 06:36 PM

#5536

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,798

Quote:

Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog

First order approximation would be a normal (or log-normal) distribution around a mean = target line, and a std dev using a base of all NFL players with similar performance characteristics. You could bound that against a uniform distribution and bracket a projected yard value.

I'm guessing your biggest source of error would be estimating a mean, so I would work on refining that using a combination of composite lines and a simple projection model.

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11-26-2020 , 10:42 PM

#5537

Da_Nit

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 9,395

Somewhat odd question but what happened to RickRoll? He’s been quiet for months.

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11-26-2020 , 10:42 PM

#5538

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

I have discovered college football player props and I get $1000 limits. Anyone on here want to attack CFB player props?

I took Bobby Cole receptions u1.5 -140 in NMEX vs UTST. Backfield super crowded, Cole is the bruiser not the pass catcher, in only one game in his career does he even have a reception. Anyone who is sharp at CFB player props can tell me if I'm in the right direction?

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerHero77

First order approximation would...

I'm gonna be honest, I don't know what this means. I don't model. My mlb "model" consisted of me knowing a few key equations and just hand calculating stuff with a projected wOBA I have. But I appreciate you answering so I'm going to Google and learn what I can.

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11-26-2020 , 11:42 PM

#5539

CodythePATRIOT

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,052

Quote:

Originally Posted by Da_Nit

Somewhat odd question but what happened to RickRoll? He’s been quiet for months.

Was wondering this same thing not too long ago.

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11-27-2020 , 12:17 AM

#5540

JSkelts

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 628

I sent rick a PM a few weeks back and didn't get a response. I swear I saw him online on slack once or twice but haven't heard from him on there either. Hope hes alright.

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11-27-2020 , 02:38 AM

#5541

Da_Nit

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 9,395

Quote:

Originally Posted by JSkelts

I sent rick a PM a few weeks back and didn't get a response. I swear I saw him online on slack once or twice but haven't heard from him on there either. Hope hes alright.

Ah **** nothing wrong with getting bored of a fringe poker site but this is kind of odd.

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11-27-2020 , 11:46 AM

#5542

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,301

speaking of ricks, what happened to syndicate member emeritus rickj? all of his sports betting content was deleted from his blog/twitter. now he just tweets about politics all day.

https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/
https://twitter.com/rickjsportplays

come home rick.

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11-27-2020 , 02:00 PM

#5543

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

Wow rick is a huge trumper. Not sure if I should be surprised by that or not.

Ok you wanted darts picks?

Madars Razma +155

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11-27-2020 , 02:11 PM

#5544

Hellmuth was right

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 5,816

Quote:

Originally Posted by Da_Nit

Somewhat odd question but what happened to RickRoll? He’s been quiet for months.

Probably went broke

Quote:

Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog

Wow rick is a huge trumper. Not sure if I should be surprised by that or not.

Not surprising at all. The guy sucks.

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11-27-2020 , 02:26 PM

#5545

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

I think the lines in this darts tournament can be way off. They did seeding based on money won in this tournament so far, which i don't think is reflective of actual skill. And I think odds are being affected by the seeding. I also made this bet earlier but didn't post because wanted to make sure I had something before posting picks and I think I do. Searle won 6-2.

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11-27-2020 , 03:30 PM

#5546

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

Efes also died from covid.

i took

CSKA -6 LOSS -1.1
Tel Aviv -3.5 [-4 is ok] LOSS -1.1
Berlin +5 WIN +1
Efes/Zvevda u156.5 [covid lock] WIN +1

and for Fri
Valencia +3 [good to +1] WIN +1
Valencia o155.5 [good to 158] WIN +1

nice to have something finally go good for us in the 2H with valencia. usually thats where we get crushed [like with CSKA 3rd Q].

4-2 +1.8u
YTD: 25-19-1 +4.1u

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11-27-2020 , 03:32 PM

#5547

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

Ty sigley

Quote:

Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog

Thoughts on these? You should fade me:

Johnson o25.5 receiving yards -114 WIN
Johnson o3.5 receptions -114 LOSS
Cooper o52.5 receiving yards -114 WIN
Cooper o4.5 receptions -142 WIN
Schultz o34.5 receiving yards -114 LOSS
Gibson u15.5 receiving yards -114 LOSS
McKissic u28.5 receiving yards -114 WIN

4-3 +0.58
YTD: 4-3 +0.58

I posted that CFB player prop at half time so can't count it obv but it did win. I want the record to note that it did win.

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 11-27-2020 at 03:39 PM.

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11-27-2020 , 03:51 PM

#5548

parisron

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 20,157

Tuesday night NFL! Balt/Pitt

Quote

11-27-2020 , 06:17 PM

#5549

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

Quote:

Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog

Madars Razma +155 WIN

DARTS
1-0 +1.55
YTD: 1-0 +1.55

Tomorrow:
Joe Cullen -110

Quote

11-27-2020 , 07:28 PM

#5550

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

Is anyone kind enough to share how often on average a CFB game has three straight scores? I've seen 2/3 quoted but I assume that is for NFL.

Is a PFF cfb subscription worth it if I have access to these player props? Only $30. Wondering if pff is better than FO, although I know this is only the first year they're offering cfb.

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 11-27-2020 at 07:49 PM.

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