I quoted nepeeme. Then I made my own comment. What am I missing here?

If he wins via any method other than cheating/****ing with postals yes, I will no longer be firing on American politics at least at the presidential level

If he wins via cheating/stopping counting of absentee ballots, that's build into the 20-22% equity I have him at now

If he wins via lower turnout than 56% or so thats also build into the equity, although that outcome is sub 1% now given early turnout numbers have us on track for 60%+ turnout

Trump is not drawing dead, but he's more like a +400 dog than the +190 or so dog the market has him at

Win or lose i'm currently in at an average of about -141 or so. No regrets. Confident i'm on the right side according to the data. We'll know in a few days.

l cannot even fathom how somebody could post such garbage with any shred of dignity.

Are you still confident you were on the right side in 2016 when you laid NOT Trump -200?

Serious question. Do you have an explanation other than "I ****ed up"

Except they aren't and I'm pretty sure I'm way better at modeling than you.

Contemplating betting -120 for trump to win Florida. Trump has been rallying and 20k+ people have been showing up and they have 2.5m people going door to door supposedly. I’m watching Biden rally’s videos and all I see are people bashing Biden in the comments, lol. And people who live in Florida are commenting that they see 10x more Trump signs than Biden signs. Thoughts? I’m going by real life here obviously and not the fake polls.

Are you going by the polling data? Because even people who don’t know anything about politics or betting know they’re wrong, lol. Democratic media is biased towards democrats for a reason, it’s obvious to see and I just got into politics. I think Biden is the fav but not by +400. I would take that bet all day. This is the sketchiest election ever to bet on because there’s been so many outside forces tampering with this election, social media, cndnc, etc. Y’all really need to stop taking these “polls” seriously. I’m willing to bet anyone here that they’re not even close to what they will be come Election Day. I’d say at least 4-5% Margin if error.

Wow they'll each only have to go to 2.5 households and then they're done.

Miami Dade and Palm Beach are red when it comes to in person voting. While by election date they might be lost, point is it won’t be an overwhelming loss for Trump. Those are reliably blue counties, so that’s all she wrote. Florida is a lock for King Trump.

This is super helpful btw. Thank you.

Election touting seems like the easier job ever

Don't need to be accountable because "I'm not allowed to bet"

I'm just measuring "voter intent" so if my model is wrong it's because (a) fraud, (b) cheating, (c) it wasn't a legitimate election. No way it's the models fault.

How long until we start getting "leans". I never said Biden was going to win Texas, it was just a lean so we won't count that to our records. But Biden winning California was a 5 star play. 5 star plays are currently 12-0 in the 2020 election cycle. The number of stars a play has is as correlated to making mad money as public opinion in two states made up entirely of different populations. Sign up for my newsletter!

I'm such a sucker in betting my models and dealing with the consequences of it (e.g., impending election related poverty for fading "Nate Tha Great" in democrat strongholds like Florida).

ah yes, the old "his rallies draw so many more people" argument. How did that work out for Bernie Sanders?

Didn't know you were in charge of HR over there now hits. Congrats.

This thread is ****ing hilarious. Both sides emotional as ****. You can sense the swinging confidence shifts move with the odds. Trumpsters out in full force and odds going his way and now you can sense the Hiden bidens retreating to their rock. For the record I'm on Biden.

-120 is great considering its moved to -150 in a lot of places

I would be willing to accept a Superb Owl type scenario where you have so much public money coming in that the markets become inefficient, especially in big favourite moneylines, where it’s more appealing to triple your money than it is to mini bridge jump.

In 2012 we suspected Romney’s campaign was injecting millions into the betting markets. That’s another possibility.

I also buy that a large portion of sports bettors are also more in favour of Trump based on demographics.

But I don’t think any of that gets you to -600 on a line offered at -190. We see lines in NFL Superb Owl favs go for -260 when they should be at -300. Can the election be that much more popular than the Owl?

No emotions from the Trump supporters. Ironically that’s a reason why as a whole there’s very little appeal to emotions like the others do, “but the homeless!!”, “think of the poor guy too poor to get an ID to vote”, “tax the rich!”.

Take a step back and see the only data points presented by the “smart money” is the polls.

Imagine you are in your early twenties, are about to get a good degree, never held a job but have a $10k liferoll made up of poker winnings that you dont need to survive, how much are you betting on Biden if you are confident 80-90 are the real odds?

Is Kelly Criterion worth looking? Half Kelly?

All of it

Doooooo it! Next he’ll be asking what’s the best underpass to live in.

Basically Trump needs to win PA and AZ (assuming he holds NC and GA).

Without PA, his next easiest path would be NV + MN, with NV + WI next, but those are both long shots.

Without AZ, his next easiest path would be NV, with WI next, and MN after that. I have these about 10x more likely than the no PA path.

Without PA AND AZ, his easiest path would be NE-2 + NV + WI, which again is a long shot.

The most likely paths to 269-269:
-Trump loses AZ, wins ME-2 + NE-2;
-Trump wins NV + AZ;
-Trump wins AZ + NE-2 + WI;
-Trump wins AZ + MN + NE-2.

I think it's closer to Mayweather vs McGregor, except it's as if McGregor had actually boxed before, 4 years earlier in a situation where he was a 2:1 dog even though most signs pointed towards him being a 6:1 dog, and he won in a big upset.

So a lot of the people who would have loaded up big on Mayweather got burned four years before and didn't bother getting back in.

If he wins PA it’s over. The other states are highly correlated. Not to mention, FL has gone with the winner in the past 6 elections. Don’t know who’s whispering poison in your ear that FL is in play.

NV there’s reports coming out of rural votes much larger than 2016 and giving Trump enough to make it an even match with the metros.

AZ assuming the trends hold for in person voting, it goes to Trump.

Wrong as most signs didnt point towards Trump being a 6:1 dog if you looked at the 538 model for example where he had 30%

You can buy NO on a Democratic win in Florida on PI for 53 cents right now, which works out to about -141 for a one- time bet.

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