From news reports, it seems pretty consistent that more people are betting on Trump, however the amount wagered seems pretty even between Trump and Biden.

Here is a Canadian new story, https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/b...tion-1.5163333. The BC lottery corp is government run, so they are not likely to lie about their numbers. 44% of bets are on Trump, 27% on Biden, and 29% on Harris and Pence (WTF? )

But you don't need any of the above. You can try to see if the lines are shaded and pick the opposite side. One example is the popular vote line. More people voted Dem in the 2018 midterms than the number of people who voted for Trump in 2016.

yes, this is a good bet, but do not bet on this at a sportsbook

use predictit

the odds are +750

Trump had a rally in Omaha Nebraska this week. And 30 people had to be hospitalized.
Touche.

novels being posted ITT

i didn't read all of that, but it seems like your entire thesis boils down to trusting the D biased fake news polls a bit too much, domah

Weird. Incubation period is like ~5 days. Must follow the same rigor as the polls.

Hunter got a footjob from someone on video, theres leaks of it all over twitter. It is not possible to see the girls face in the video. However, anons found a scar on the foot that is visible, which matches a scar visible on other photos of the foot of his 14 yr old niece taken from her social media.

Lmao bruh you're so clueless. A few months back when there was all the riots from BLM, Biden started dropping like crazy in your precious polls. Riots are bad for Biden, they're happening with groups he's loosely associated with.

There’s a giant disconnect between the real markets and polls. Not only that, I bet that most of the ones screaming at the altar of polls don’t think there’s extreme bias against the current president.

There’s a significant bubble for those that live in the CNN/NYT/MSNBC world, which then trickles out to others as those places used to be somewhat impartial.

Nate Silver has had no real skin in the game. Now working for Disney, he’s got a fat contract and can weather out the storm.

The regular people buying houses and 30 year mortgages have significant skin in the game. This group of people is betting on the economy staying strong and they know that with Trump, it’s been stronger than ever. These people wouldn’t be signaling so strongly for confidence in the future if they believed Biden would be the winner. Please see all the data showing Trump v Biden in terms of economy. Please don’t say “but corona” as if it wouldn’t have happen to Hillary.

Seeing as how this is a betting thread and everyone is crowding into the Biden camp and Trump winning is overwhelmingly underpriced by biases, the clear +EV bet is for Trump.

lol this thread boils down to people who bet for a living vs people who don't

at least some people have policies in place where they are not allowed to bet on markets they are emotionally invested in

call me when a Trump supporter is betting on Biden to win

also lol@so many non americans thinking they have an "outsiders" perspective aka they just watch the mainstream media

you hate to see it

well said domer.

and that graph my god teach me please!

Bad math, right gist.

https://news.gallup.com/interactives...al-center.aspx

Trump has the highest rating for a president within his own party EVER.

This goes for Chuck too, I think he won’t get this info from CNN or NYT.

Your other points are biases and or stem directly from biased polls.

I’ll stand on the other side of your bet I guess. Good luck.

nice post domah

what's wrong with the math

it's just the edge for each market based on their projections

not saying bet them all. just saying that's what the edge / recommended bet if you use kelly is to show how bad bookmaker is by offering 88% of your bankroll bets for 10k limit

we need to get all our money off there ASAP before nate gang bankrupts them

if only there was a kelly calculator that let you calculate correlated bets

Can we stop with the false dichotomy that betting your political interests is inherently a bad bet? I have looked for spots to pick up good Repub bets all election, doesn't mean I will take any of them. Just means that since I have a rooting interest I am going to pick my spots carefully and not bet against my emotions. I also have Biden -4000 to win California and other stuff like that.

Also I don't think Biden at -180 or whatever is a good bet. Doesn't matter, I locked in Trump at +188 in 2019.

If you are planning on doing PredictIt for the long haul, one simple strategy is just to buy a lot of the mid-to-high 0.90 cent shares. Many bettors are one-and-done types, who take their money out immediately after the event, so they cannot buy 0.94+ shares profitably (they will always lose money due to fees).

too much work. just bet the 88% of your bankroll on biden suggested by the economist. then don't have to worry about state correlations

is there any research about how correlated states are. is it the same correlation state to state? how do you correlate public opinion since that is whats correlated and not polling? i'm guessing public opinion in ohio is different than new york based on socio-economic factors. are they negatively correlated?

it seems everyone thinks if biden wins one state he's going to win every single one because correlation!

it's either 538-0 or nothing

is this the new meme

why not view it like this if they're so correlated

if your bankroll is only 10k there's no way you can bet professionally. so lets say your bankroll is a respectable 1 million then since they're correlated you can circum navigate limits by making all those bets! since there's no way to get down the 50-60% they say you should bet

This post was pretty interesting

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.e...tion-forecast/


Makes you wish they had more than politics markets haha

You're using single event Kelly stakes for many correlated events. That wouldn't even be close to the optimal solution even if they were independent.

The gist is right though. This thread is basically Nate Silver worshippers who write walls of text to convince themselves they have an edge on the market by tailing the most widely known publicly available prediction website, which also happens to get smoked by the market on anything they've tried over a large enough sample size. Of course these people also don't have the money to move the market either, for obvious reasons.

as long as it's more than 0

doesn't really matter how much

either way I agree with your main points

just weird to believe a guy who doesn't actually bet money into the market

Those makin many/long posts obviously are overinvested and not too sure of themselves. Trying to calm themselves down by talkin/posting to themselves lol. At least i will have some extra glare if T wins lol.

$500 T. No pro by any means. Lookin to extend in the coming days.

Edit: and lol @ that covid bullshit. U gotta be hyper ******ed to destroy an economy for some upgraded flu. (its to roll out an agenda though, covid is just the excuse. Big corp gobbling up everything)

it's my fault for adding them up to make a joke about how much to bet

just wanted to show how ridiculous the edge were to the markets not imply that you should make all those bets or it's correct to make all the bets

indeed what's more likely to happen

the markets are fair or there are a 100 Connor bets walking around lol

a once in a lifetime bet as the name suggests doesn't occur so often ey

I know tons of people here in California who think we would have had ZERO corona deaths had Hillary been president. I understand why people hate Trump but the fairy tales people believe because they hate him is just insane. These are normally rational intelligent people too, or so I thought lol

Can GOP realistically win by 280+ electoral votes?

A certain book keeps offering prices between -1200 to -1800.
Seems pretty free.
But each time it is bet, it is adjusted backwards.

Trap? Or safe