Quote:
Originally Posted by vinivici9586
why isn't he doing better in the betting odds?
Trump won in an upset last time is why, random people over-compensate by assuming he's more likely to win as an underdog than he did
Obv if he's down 3-4% in the popular vote on election day he could very well win, but if he's down 9% still thats way way outside the margin of error
Unknowns re turnout with Covid as well, plus GOP schenanigans trying to lose/destroy/suppress Dem leaning postal votes, plus the usual voter suppression and an admittedly slim chance Trump may try and outright cheat as in try and compromise voting machines etc
At the end of the day Biden is a clear fav today as anyone up 9% in the polls would be
Florida has a Republican secretary of state in event its close/recounts etc remember Bush vs Gore and hanging chads, it's incredibly likely Gore won Florida if all of the votes were recounted using voter intention etc but yeah, i'd snap take Biden next President over Biden wins FL, because if he wins FL he's also won the Presidency, but he can win the Presidency through the midwest while losing Florida - Florida is a must win state for Trump, it isn't for Biden
Also i'm pretty sure everyone considers Trump to be a New Yorker right, he has links to FL through Mar a Lago etc but I don't think people from Florida actually think of him as a local do they?
At the end of the day anyone betting on Trump is betting that he will dramatically improve his position between now and election day
That said every couple posts we all make another week has gone by and the overall numbers are about the same. Less than a week until August now, then it's three months or so til the election.
August will be about the conventions and VP picks. I assume Trump picks Pence, or if he picks Haley to shake things up I guess that's a thing but given the Dem VP nominee will be a woman too I don't see how any VP candidates will be a major positive or negative, Pence shores up Trump's evangelicals and Biden's VP either boosts black/female turnout or in the event they go with Warren boosts leftist turnout instead, but i'd be shocked if it isn't Harris or Rice at this point, the markets are usually right about these things and while Duckworth is great too she's from a blue state and doesn't work as well demographically as any of the black women Biden is likely to pick
Warren makes more sense staying in the Senate probably to actually get Biden's agenda passed and move him a bit to the left on policy as an advisor and it might make the socialist attacks stick more if Biden picks her so i'd pass at this point, enough of the far left will hold their nose and vote for Biden just to get rid of Trump, what he needs is to mirror Obama's turnout with black voters and win the moderates in the midwest, if he does that he gets the midwest and/or FL+NC and it's game over anything beyond that doesnt matter
@neepee specifically I don't see any reason to bet Biden wins FL over Biden next President, do you see any scenarios where he wins FL and isn't President? By comparison, he could win PA/MI/WI and lose all the other Trump '16 states to Trump if Trump improves his position a bit but not in the Midwest and Biden still wins