So you’re not going to back up your claim of $300k are you? Hey, nothing wrong with that. If you bet $300k and make $30k after all arbs on all markets, good on you. Solid return!

But wouldn’t you say it’s a bit deceiving to claim you “have $300k on this election?”

holy ****, lmao.

Look at that dude in the background watching him: what the hell is he doin there... 🤣🤣

Lol and i thought nobody did public information betting anymore

Zero edge in public data but w.e

How triggered do you need to be to start posting your graph seesh just to prove a point

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxPYv84mcao

Holiday you might "feel" the fight was much closer but " I know" It wasn't close

The actual fight was rigged for FLoyD lol, look at the scorecards of the judges, they were published after the fight!

Will GOP win presidential election by 280+ electoral votes.

I keep hitting no.... and they keep giving me better prices..

Not making sense to me.
getting as good as -1000 today

I've fired as high as -1800 on this prop in the past months

How can anyone buy into what ur saying when u got this lol avatar?? 🤣🤣
I sure cant.

Maybe someone should have told McGregor it was rigged because he didn’t seem too concerned about maintaining Mayweather’s consciousness in the early rounds.

No way McGregor ever wins a decision, that’s obvious.

Small chance he strikes a lucky punch against an older and slower legend. Not so small as to warrant -3500, imo.

Anyway we’re off topic. The point stands that very large public bet events can drift off-market. I doubt they can drift off-market by 20% when you can hit them for 30 and 40k a shot. There isn’t any precedent for those kind of edges on large liquid markets unless you’re dealing with insider information, like if you knew beforehand that even if Joe Biden’s son was criminally sexually deviant nobody would report on it anyway.

He has to not only land a lucky punch, but he also has to land this lucky punch and put him down for longer than 10 seconds. You're parlaying unlikely events. How many world class boxers did he fight that missed and missed all night. Zab Judah caught him once and Mosley rocked him but the only thing that ever touched the canvas in his historic career was his hand...

what's everyone's plan to follow the election results on tuesday? with how some states are treating mail-in ballots, states will start showing some crazy results when polls close and i'd like to follow people who actually are able to put this into context.

What % of early, mail in voting republicans do you guys feel break from Trump? A willingness to vote by mail is atleast an acknowledgement of not buying into all of what Presidente says

What % of republicans do you feel breaks from trump total?

I disagree with your main point. I think you can, and I'm using the Mayweather McGregor fight as an example, and the limits on that were just as high, if not higher.

If your point was that you thought McGregor did better than expected, and you're carrying that narrative over to this election, I'm not sure I follow the logic.

PA is going to be the biggest indicator and ofc they have mail in counting ****ery in place.

Take Joe Biden plus money in Florida (if available).
Take Trump -140 or better in Georgia.
Take Trump plus money or better in North Carolina.
Take Biden +140 or better in Iowa (if available).

What you don't like spaceman Spiff!? I've had this avatar for 11 years i'm not changing now.

You're swayed by a cartoon avatar, I think i'll still be able to sleep at night

Jesus guys what happened to the forum remember when it used to be so collaborative and helpful with actionable ideas? The discussion was productive? When did all the trolls get here.

Politics are embedded into most people’s identities. Even in this thread you can tell those arguing the profitable side is tied to their ideology.

The only notable not politically driven to me is Rsigley who’s just super skeptical that the books are wrong and being snarky to the “Biden is a lock” people.

i don't know what you guys are talking about. self-loathing from years of betting makes me more eager to bet against my political leanings. what professional ever goes around betting on sides they actually like?

the person who gives us lectures about how hard black people have it every chance he gets..

How does Nate’s polls factor in Weezy Baby endorsing Trump?

This is quickly becoming an obvious landslide.

I don't peruse 538 very often but these pollster grades seem pretty sketchy considering that ABC News/WaPo has Biden at +17!!!!! in Wisconsin but that poll gets an A+

Nate said it's likely an outlier (they happen) although the poll ratings are generally good from that firm

Obv no one thinks Biden is up 17 in WI, but remember it IS possible the polls are wrong in the other direction, most people are only talking about the polls being wrong and Trump actually being ahead, it is also possible Biden is more ahead than the polls show (I tend to agree that's less likely, but it's certainly not impossible)

@wbh define landslide and i'll lay you a price if you want to bet

I lost betting on Hillary with my local four years ago, and maybe he was trying to make me feel better, but when I was talking to him at settle up, he said, "I got ****ING DESTROYED by Trump bettors!"

On another note, everyone is taking at face value that books are betting on Biden. However, Dave Mason of BetOnline was the guest on a sports betting podcast I often listen to (PM if you want the name; I won't shill it here) and Dave said their greatest volume of bets is on Trump, but a Biden electoral college win is, in fact, their greatest liability, between their biggest clients betting large amounts on Biden, plus the futures bets taken back in January when Biden was still like a 10-1 (or worse) dog to win. So... BetOnline needs a Trump EC victory, but a Biden popular vote win, due to so many Trump bettors taking what he described as "lottery ticket" bets on Trump to win the popular vote. He also mentioned their two biggest state-level liabilities being Trump to win PA at +160, and Trump to win CO at +700.

The virus is raging uncontrolled there.

FDR beat Hoover in 1932 by 17

57-40


Trump is worse than hoover but racism is alive and well

I see a landslide coming and all the GOP'S cheating won't be enough to make up for it

Hopefully I'm correct

Don't blame the Democrat governor though. And I'll be sure to keep those 88 year old election precedents in mind when I bet, thanks