A quick question about steal spot.

I steal from BTN KQJ3ddd. BB calls flop AT6r with one diamond. I cbet and I was wondering what happens when I get checkraised? I have 30-35% equity vs two pairs and sets. Do you like 3betting? Or do you peel and hope for the str8? On a diamond turn that is not a Q,K,J I still have 30% equity against the same range.

Basically I want to know when should I go crazy with my 30% equity? And when is a good spot to peel? Obviously if I know the villian well I try to fold him out the hand when I know it is possible with my medium draws etc but what do you do vs unknowns, just try to fold them out when you get any decent board untill you see what he continues with? How does this change say 250bb deep?

I'm guessing u get called rather than raised by most aces, so I don't think u have much FE. I don't mind peeling the raise, but would prefer couple BDFDs to go with the inside wrap.

So I'm thinking if getting into PLO after 2 years away from Poker. The main reason being that PLO has started to appear in the b&m rooms I live near to, and up to now I was pretty confident I would be +EV just by playing super nitty aggro. Plus its a game less well known than HE bla bla bla.

However, I just read an article in the July sticky regarding variance that mentionned that over 100k hands, potential outcome for a break even player can vary between +75BI to -60BI

Now I'm a casual player, have a full time job etc, but obviously looking to impove my poker game substantially (simply coz its fun and i love it). I would be playing maybe 15h live per month max on average, and say maybe 12 to 20 hours online. Add in maybe 2 hours of studying per week.

Taking this into account, wouldnt I just be gambling / surfing variance if I started to play PLO? I mean if I even built a small edge, would it actually mean something (ie make at least some pocket change) taking in account the small volumes I play?

I feel like this could be a ******ed question, but any feedback is welcomed.

Couple hands I'm unsure on the correct action..

In both hands villain is 42/8/2, 40 aggro factor, slight losing reg. Always bets pot regardless of bluff/value, doesn't bluff that often or value bet thin. Can call fairly light on the flop.

Merge - $0.04 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG: $8.82
MP: $4.92
CO: $5.31
BTN: $2.92
Hero (SB): $7.45
BB: $5.67

Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has T A T 2

UTG calls $0.04, fold, CO calls $0.04, fold, Hero calls $0.02, BB checks

Flop: ($0.16, 4 players) T 8 9
Hero bets $0.12, fold, UTG calls $0.12, fold

Turn: ($0.40, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

River: ($1.20, 2 players) J
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.20, fold



Hand 2

Against the same villain..
Merge - $0.04 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $7.60
SB: $4.98
BB: $5.49
Hero (UTG): $9.14
CO: $5.67

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has K 7 7 K

Hero raises to $0.14, fold, BTN calls $0.14, fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.44, 3 players) Q 3 5
BB checks, Hero bets $0.33, BTN calls $0.33, fold

Turn: ($1.10, 2 players) 4
Hero bets $0.84, BTN calls $0.84

River: ($2.78, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.78, fold

What kinda stakes are you gonna start from? microstakes online and smallstakes live play loose-passive, which greatly decreases variance. The whole point of playing PLO is that atm u can build a much bigger skill edge to ur opponents on average. Variance in PLO comes from small equity differences between starting hands + aggressive play pre and post. When you start out vs soft opponents u just don't bluff and v-bet as much as possible. They won't put you in marginal spots and will be really easy to read.

Thanks for the reply.
I'm going to start pretty low, however I'm playing on pokerstars.fr with insane rake which I think makes micro unbeatable (need to look into that deeper). I'll probably start at PLO25 6max, maybe 15...
Live FR, 1-2, and I'll play super nitty and vbet a ton as you suggested.

Out of interest, wouldn't this be a good spot for most villains who have just a pair of aces to CR?

Especially if hero has high Cbet %age.

Against any random hand on that board, the pair of aces with 3 random sidecards has 70% + equity.

99Q8ds MP in 6max game always call when UTG opens?

Yea, it's a good spot, but I'm guessing most villains will just c/c a lot at micros.

It's marginal, really depends on how many will see the flop and whether you won't overplay mediocre hits. Did you notice the starting hand chart I posted?

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/38...-6max-1227072/

No I didn't, thanks for the link.

Right, cheers.

Normal and good winner winrate at nano PLO stakes? such PLO2 and PLO5.

Thanks

Isn't one of the main sources of more variance the fact that there are more possible outcomes? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought with the more possible outcomes something has the longer it will take to stabilize to it's true expected percentage. Therefore a 60/40 in PLO will have more variance than one in NLHE.

I'm not an expert on variance theory, but ur likely on the right track. Obv 60/40 is still 60/40 in PLO, but PLO hands hit the flop more often, resulting in more showdowns on average.

Already posted this elsewhere, but here's a guide on getting coaching:

1. Ask SSPLO about whether buying coaching is good for your situation
2. Look for a PLO coach at the coaching forum
3. Run a background check on the coach you want to hire, ask for references here or HSPLO

Indeed, although I worded that poorly. I should have said 50 trails of 60/40s for example in PLO will be more likely to deviate from the expected and to a larger extent as opposed to NLHE.

No, a 60/40 is still a 60/40. But PLO has fewer 80/20s or 90/10s, because domination it's such a big deal in HE. As someone suggested, more showdowns may be part of that too, but that's just a different way in which per-hand edges are thinner against opponents of equal caliber.

(Fortunately, it seems PLO opponents are rarely of equal caliber to their NLHE counterparts.)

I'll take your word for it I guess for now, but it seems logical to me that something with more possible outcomes (PLO has way way more in a single hand) would likely take more trials to reach its expected value. I tried reading the variance wiki for 20 seconds but I got urge to pay PLO instead.

I think "more outcomes" is just a different way of saying the same thing.

HE: 5 numbers on the roulette wheel, and i own 4 of them.

Omaha: 30 numbers on the wheel and I own 17 of them.

(even though there are the same number of turn and river cards... the outcomes you're referring to are like extra numbers)

I guess my reasoning was it would take longer for all the possibilities to be hit, but now that I think about I'm not really sure how that would make things swingier or take longer for things to converge.

Your comparing the same probabilities of exclusive events.. I think that any mutually exclusive 60%/40% is going to have the same expected outcome given any number of trails (eventA=60%,eventB=40%).

I think what your trying to get at is that there is more combinations in PLO than HE, so constructing the 60/40 has more variables and is more complex.

is 50BI enough for bumhunting PLO HU given that i use 15BIs for NLHE HU bumhunting? or is the variance so bad even when bumhunting that I should stick to 100+BI? wanna hear responses from people who play HU PLO.

There's a separate HU-thread here, def ask again there.

50BI sounds adequate to me

Guide to SSPLO by us

Unstickied this thread and added it in this post and the OP of this thread. (....to reduce the number of stickied threads)

Atta-boy!