Using that program, what would be the probability of hitting 100 buyins in however many hands Yaarny is playing?

Last update from yaaarny was 76 buyins


it is going to be a fun next 2 days, i imagine action will be big tomorrow, glglglgl papi


streaming again tomorrow afternoon

dis gonna be good

hahalol

lol that is great ^

Even if he doesnt make it, i already give him thumbs up man, crazy grinder, respect!!!

Im sure, even if he fails he ll end up in profit, with rakeback and stuff... can someone confirm

I guess with the rackback / VPPS / and the WCOOP second place score I think he is freerolling it now.

Respect to YaAaRnY & Ike for give so much action and a good sweat!

I guess he is up a ton even if he's loosing the bet. That man runs

Yaarny can we get a FPP/milestones worth for the the 31 days at the end please?

Hes winning or winning big time.
Nevertheless the result 5 star propbet.

My guess is about 180-200k VPPs

I actually made an error with the simulator, a huge one.

The previous results were to END with 3900bb+ with the number of hands. I forgot to uncomment a check to stop the loop (I commented that line out to make sure the loop was generating expected winnings in line with a typical mean/std calc)

To emphasize, previous results were for probability Yaarny ends up with 3900bbs in winnings at the end.

The probability that you hit 3900bbs at SOME point during 33000 hands is a LOT higher.

Correction for previous results

2 bb/100 winrate
280 bb/100 std
3900 target bbs
33000 hands
10000 trials
Success rate: 0.486549

Where the bet started:
2bb/100 winrate,
280 bb/100 std
target win 10000 bbs,
180000 hands (6000 a day, tough, but not soulcrushing),
10000 trials
Success rate: 0.491098

0 bb/100 winrate,
280 bb/100 std
target win 10000 bbs,
180000 hands
10000 trials
Success rate: 0.39654


Where the bet stands with 24 "buyins" to win:
2 bb/100 winrate,
280 bb/100 std
target win 2400 bbs,
12000 hands
10000 trials
Success rate: 0.458746

0 bb/100 winrate,
280 bb/100 std
target win 2400 bbs,
12000 hands
10000 trials
Success rate: 0.433543

Where the bet stands with 24 "buyins" to win: (playing losing poker but ramping up variance)
-2 bb/100 winrate,
350 bb/100 std
target win 2400 bbs,
12000 hands
10000 trials
Success rate: 0.509051


Where the bet stands with 24 "buyins" to win: (no sleep version with 18000 hands in 2 days)
2 bb/100 winrate,
280 bb/100 std
target win 2400 bbs,
18000 hands
10000 trials
Success rate: 0.555756

Two things to get out of this:
Yaarny is a small favorite to finish if he foregoes sleep and plays 18000 hands in next two days, even if that drives his EV down to break even. As long as the standard deviation stays high (basically earlier suggestions that he plays solid are dumb, variance is good for this bet).

That's the second take away. As deadline approaches, Yaarny might be in a position where he's better off playing breakeven, even slightly negative, EV but high variance poker. It's very dangerous because attempts to drive action can actually lead to lower variance (since people need to oblige to drive variance up).

To emphasize, previous results were for probability Yaarny ends up with 3900bbs in winnings at the end.

thx for these, quite interesting

I think so too.

Embedded in the assumptions is 280bb/100 std.

From what I've seen in HEM databases over time, that's pretty high. High enough it suggests people are gambling up with him more than usual.

Perhaps some people that betted against him and tried to slow him down actually ended up improving Yaarny's equity in the bet?

I haven't been following the bet at all so I have no idea who's betting for and against him. I just thought the problem interesting because it reminds me so much of options pricing.

Strategy for people that betted against Yaarny:
Do everything you can to slow Yaarny's hands/hour (variance is tough, but if you can lower his variance, that's good too).

Strategy for people that betted on Yaarny:
Ship him a few cases of Red Bull. Yaarny's best option is to just clock a **** ton of hands until he gets there.

awesomme stuff grizzy


Here, you used a 2bb/100 and not BE (or mistakenly wrote 2bb/100 instead of 0)

The fact that you even post anything like that shows a lot about your character. It's obviously against the spirit of the bet to slow down the action on purpose and obviously the regs that bet against him have more class than that I hope.

I was referring to the -2bb winrate 350bb std, and 12000 hands (high variance but negative EV) yielding 50.9% success rate.

0 bb/100 winrate
280 bb/100 std
2400 bb target win
18000 hands
10000 trials
Success rate: 0.524352

I thought that would be obvious. (besides the obvious fact the rules mention it's frowned upon)

My point was more along the lines it's just a good coin flip sweat now and there isn't much anyone (other than Lady Luck) can do to stop Yaarny from getting there.

he was not using "slow down" the way you think he was

Grizy, are you assuming that "bb won in 100 hands" is normally distributed?

Yes.

I wouldn't use this simulator if the question is for smaller trial sizes (like chances to win at least xxx amount in 100 hands)

You heard the man yaaaarny..... NO SLEEP!

Be on the lookout for people that bet against you Yaarn to see if they might be changing there strat as Grizy mentions when playing specifically against you

looooooool

Damn Joey where are the PLO-Shirts and the stream?!

@grizy

sick stuff.Pretty interesting

man whatever happened to guestimates and talking out of ur ass, all these calculations are not appealing to a live/feel player such as myself