09-20-2014 , 09:02 AM
yaaaaarrr we can!

googogogogogoogo, been very exciting ao far! shipit!
09-20-2014 , 09:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David123
27 buyins, just needs some of that deluxe run good, I've lost mine, maybe Yaarny can find it for 3 days
63+27=

Spoiler:
not 100
09-20-2014 , 09:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by YaAaRnY
not over yet papi , at 63 !
Nice!! Glglgl! Punish them all tonight!

heres for the rungood!

Last edited by Karcsi; 09-20-2014 at 09:34 AM.
09-20-2014 , 09:40 AM
how much tougher is 37 buyins in 3 days than 100 in 31?
09-20-2014 , 10:00 AM
09-20-2014 , 10:06 AM
^^ 3,75547431214454449632115 !!!!
09-20-2014 , 10:20 AM
in case someone missed joey rapping about his new lifestyle.
Don't know why the bass is so heavy
09-20-2014 , 10:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1oh1
63+27=

Spoiler:
not 100
2+2 has to have a like button
09-20-2014 , 10:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aventon
you'd realistically price this at 6,7,8-1 from here? (not fishing for a bet btw)
09-20-2014 , 10:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aventon
Only from an avg buyins/day perspective, I very much doubt he was 4x more likely to win the bet at beginning than now.
09-20-2014 , 10:51 AM
Probably higher cause there are many different variables in this short timespan.

W/e Yaaarny will ship it.
09-20-2014 , 10:55 AM
A rough calc assuming 2 bi/100 sd would say that if he can play 11k hands a day then 1 sd pos var would do it. But I'm tired and just tried to estimate in my head.
Edit and obv deep tables help alot
09-20-2014 , 11:06 AM
Very very rough calculation, 7-1 would assume Yaaarny's about evens to make 13 BI every day (2^3 = 8), in which case he'd be making ~ 400 BI every month with this volume. I know he's good, but c'mon, he's averaging 2 BI / day over last 27. Odds are in the 100s right now IMO...

How much would you like at 7-1?

Spoiler:
Max bet \$100

Last edited by shimmy; 09-20-2014 at 11:12 AM.
09-20-2014 , 11:15 AM
Poker Stars \$10/\$20 Pot Limit Omaha Hi \$4 Ante - 6 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/2581594
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

laurie97 (BTN): \$5160.00
BROCKLESNARR (SB): \$6673.00
YaAaRnY (BB): \$5103.50
kaju85 (UTG): \$2987.40
lautie (MP): \$6776.58
ISILDRooN (CO): \$4337.25

Pre Flop: (\$54.00)
2 folds, ISILDRooN raises to \$94, 1 fold, BROCKLESNARR raises to \$326, YaAaRnY raises to \$1096, 1 fold, BROCKLESNARR calls \$770

Flop: (\$2310.00) 3d 4d 9c (2 players)
BROCKLESNARR checks, YaAaRnY bets \$2307, BROCKLESNARR calls \$2307

Turn: (\$6924.00) Ks (2 players)
BROCKLESNARR bets \$3266 all in, YaAaRnY calls \$1696.50 all in

River: (\$10317.00) Qc (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: \$10317.00
BROCKLESNARR shows 8h 6h Td 6d (a pair of Sixes)
YaAaRnY shows Ac Ah 9d Th (a pair of Aces)
YaAaRnY wins \$10314.00
(Rake: \$3.00)
09-20-2014 , 11:18 AM
I'm surprised! my thoughts were that it was still quite close, given the state of the action this month so far? I feel like odds in the 100s is a bit OTT but i really have no idea.

I would bet \$100 at 7-1 with you though, for a bit of interest :P
09-20-2014 , 11:18 AM
Just wanted to post this, sick hand.
09-20-2014 , 11:20 AM
PokerStars, Omaha Pot Limit - \$5/\$10 (\$2 ante) - 2 players
Rail Hand History Converter

YaAaRnY (BU): \$2992.11 (299 bb)
lautie (BB): \$2972.39 (297 bb)

Pre Flop: (\$19)
YaAaRnY (BU) raises to \$34, lautie (BB) 3-bets to \$106, YaAaRnY (BU) calls \$72

Flop: (\$216) 7 3 5 (2 players)
lautie (BB) checks, YaAaRnY (BU) bets \$142, lautie (BB) calls \$142

Turn: (\$500) K (2 players)
lautie (BB) checks, YaAaRnY (BU) bets \$499.50, lautie (BB) calls \$499.50

River: (\$1499) 7 (2 players)
lautie (BB) checks, YaAaRnY (BU) bets \$998.50, lautie (BB) calls \$998.50

Total pot: \$3496 (Rake: \$0.50)

Showdown:
YaAaRnY (BU) shows 4 5 6 9 (a straight, Three to Seven)
lautie (BB) mucks
YaAaRnY (BU) wins \$3495.50
09-20-2014 , 11:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ty4thDime\$
I'm surprised! my thoughts were that it was still quite close, given the state of the action this month so far? I feel like odds in the 100s is a bit OTT but i really have no idea.

I would bet \$100 at 7-1 with you though, for a bit of interest :P
100s might be over the top given the variance yeah, I was just making the point that it's a lot more than 7-1...

I'm not actually taking any bets given don't know the current state, sorry
09-20-2014 , 11:24 AM
PokerStars, Omaha Pot Limit - \$10/\$20 (\$4 ante) - 4 players
Rail Hand History Converter

lautie (UTG): \$4742 (237 bb)
YaAaRnY (BU): \$5923 (296 bb)
Ike Haxton (SB): \$1780 (89 bb)
ISILDRooN (BB): \$4443.50 (222 bb)

Pre Flop: (\$46)
1 fold, YaAaRnY (BU) raises to \$86, 1 fold, ISILDRooN (BB) 3-bets to \$284, YaAaRnY (BU) calls \$198

Flop: (\$594) 3 6 2 (2 players)
ISILDRooN (BB) checks, YaAaRnY (BU) bets \$318, ISILDRooN (BB) calls \$318

Turn: (\$1230) 8 (2 players)
ISILDRooN (BB) checks, YaAaRnY (BU) checks

River: (\$1230) J (2 players)
ISILDRooN (BB) checks, YaAaRnY (BU) bets \$999, ISILDRooN (BB) raises to \$3837.50 (all-in), YaAaRnY (BU) calls \$2838.50

Total pot: \$8905 (Rake: \$1.50)

Showdown:
ISILDRooN (BB) shows 5 6 A A (a pair of Aces)
(Equity - pre: 70%, flop: 73%, turn: 65%, river: 0%)

YaAaRnY (BU) shows 2 9 K K (a flush, King high)
(Equity - pre: 30%, flop: 27%, turn: 35%, river: 100%)

YaAaRnY (BU) wins \$8903.50
09-20-2014 , 11:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shimmy
Very very rough calculation, 7-1 would assume Yaaarny's about evens to make 13 BI every day (2^3 = 8), in which case he'd be making ~ 400 BI every month with this volume. I know he's good, but c'mon, he's averaging 2 BI / day over last 27. Odds are in the 100s right now IMO...

The likelihood of a 2 bb/100 winner with a 200 bb/100 std dev finishing* a 25,000-hand sample up at least 37 buy-ins is 15.57%. It rises to ~20% if you use MadScientist's estimate of 33,000 hands and don't lower the winrate.

(If you multiply that by ten -- 250,000 hands and 390 buy-ins -- it drops to roughly 0%. So a ten-fold linear extrapolation, as you're doing, doesn't quite work. )

The likelihood of a 2 bb/100 winner with a 200 bb/100 std dev finishing a 200,000-hand sample up at least 100 buy-ins is 25.12%.

As far as difficulty is concerned, they should be on the same order of magnitude, assuming the games run enough. I'm unsure of how accurate the 200 bb/100 std dev figure is, but decreasing it widens the gap in difficulty between the two bets, and increasing it narrows the gap. Lowering both winrates hurts the shorter bet less.

Obviously, he isn't starting this stretch of the bet fresh, which should have the expected deleterious effect on his chances.

*There is no way to specify "passing X buy-ins at any point" unfortunately.
09-20-2014 , 11:43 AM
I said it was a very very rough calculation

Spoiler:
Obviously I realise my methodology is flawed, but not quite by that much, thanks! Although 200bb/100 std dev is probably on the high side.
09-20-2014 , 11:47 AM
PokerStars, Omaha Pot Limit - \$10/\$20 (\$4 ante) - 6 players
Rail Hand History Converter

ISILDRooN (UTG): \$2281.50 (114 bb)
ImagineKing (MP): \$3431 (172 bb)
fjutekk (CO): \$4806.50 (240 bb)
WRUUUUM (BU): \$4108 (205 bb)
lautie (SB): \$4860 (243 bb)
YaAaRnY (BB): \$4159.50 (208 bb)

Pre Flop: (\$54)
ISILDRooN (UTG) raises to \$80, ImagineKing (MP) calls \$80, 1 fold, WRUUUUM (BU) calls \$80, lautie (SB) calls \$70, YaAaRnY (BB) calls \$60

Flop: (\$424) 6 3 J (5 players)
lautie (SB) checks, YaAaRnY (BB) checks, ISILDRooN (UTG) bets \$315.75, ImagineKing (MP) calls \$315.75, 2 folds, YaAaRnY (BB) raises to \$1684, ISILDRooN (UTG) 3-bets to \$2197.50 (all-in), ImagineKing (MP) 4-bets to \$3347 (all-in), YaAaRnY (BB) calls \$1663

Turn: (\$9315.50) 9 (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: (\$9315.50) K (3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: \$9315.50 (Rake: \$3)

Showdown:
YaAaRnY (BB) shows 3 4 5 7 (a pair of Threes)
(Equity - pre: 26%, flop: 38%, turn: 31%, river: 0%)

ImagineKing (MP) shows 6 6 8 Q (three of a kind, Sixes)
(Equity - pre: 26%, flop: 13%, turn: 8%, river: 0%)

ISILDRooN (UTG) shows 4 T J J (three of a kind, Jacks)
(Equity - pre: 48%, flop: 50%, turn: 61%, river: 100%)

ImagineKing (MP) wins \$2299
ISILDRooN (UTG) wins \$7013.50
09-20-2014 , 11:53 AM
what you want to do is find the mean winrate and std per n hands.

0.02*nbb and 20*sqrt(n)

Using this information you can get the probability that you do not achieve more than 3900bb winnings over n hands.

Once you get this far, what you need is:
Probability(x<3900) with 1 hand * probability (x<3900) with 2 hands and so on for 33000 times.

This gives you the probability that 3900bb was never achieved.

1 minus that number gives you probability 3900bb is achieved at some point during the 33000 hands.
09-20-2014 , 11:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shimmy
100s might be over the top given the variance yeah, I was just making the point that it's a lot more than 7-1...

I'm not actually taking any bets given don't know the current state, sorry
quite alrite, i wasn't fishing for action, just curious

feeling an epic few days on the cards! I think he'll do it.

Either way i'm gonna be devastated when this is over!
09-20-2014 , 12:00 PM
PokerStars, Omaha Pot Limit - \$10/\$20 (\$4 ante) - 6 players
Rail Hand History Converter

fjutekk (UTG): \$4920.32 (246 bb)
ISILDRooN (MP): \$3534.50 (177 bb)
lautie (CO): \$6093 (305 bb)
WRUUUUM (BU): \$2000 (100 bb)
YaAaRnY (SB): \$6017.50 (301 bb)
ImagineKing (BB): \$3736 (187 bb)

Pre Flop: (\$54)
4 folds, YaAaRnY (SB) raises to \$84, ImagineKing (BB) 3-bets to \$276, YaAaRnY (SB) 4-bets to \$852, ImagineKing (BB) 5-bets to \$2580, YaAaRnY (SB) 6-bets to \$4308, ImagineKing (BB) calls \$1152 (all-in)

Flop: (\$7488) J 6 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (\$7488) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (\$7488) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: \$7488 (Rake: \$3)

Showdown:
YaAaRnY (SB) shows J J A A (a full house, Jacks full of Threes)
ImagineKing (BB) mucks
YaAaRnY (SB) wins \$7485