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100 buy ins, in 31 days  prop bet for 0k, finish 18:19 CET 23rd Sep - LIVE now 100 buy ins, in 31 days  prop bet for 0k, finish 18:19 CET 23rd Sep - LIVE now

09-21-2014 , 10:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bikini Wax
man whatever happened to guestimates and talking out of ur ass, all these calculations are not appealing to a live/feel player such as myself
In our home games i used to come up with odd % eg i was a 90 to 30 fav to win. Confused and angered the self proclaimed semipros.
09-21-2014 , 10:26 AM
haha that gif is perfect CJ. That's from the Hangover Pt1 when Zach G. is about to play BJ, right?
09-21-2014 , 10:32 AM
these calcs are fricking sick
09-21-2014 , 10:32 AM
great stuff grizy!

would be interesting to see after all is said and done, how much volume Yaaarny got at ante vs non-ante tables and how much of that was HU.
09-21-2014 , 10:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crashwhips
haha that gif is perfect CJ. That's from the Hangover Pt1 when Zach G. is about to play BJ, right?
yep
09-21-2014 , 10:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
I was referring to the -2bb winrate 350bb std, and 12000 hands (high variance but negative EV) yielding 50.9% success rate.

0 bb/100 winrate
280 bb/100 std
2400 bb target win
18000 hands
10000 trials
Success rate: 0.524352
This is wrong. Guaranteed wrong.
doesn't make any sense. impossible to have more than 50% to profit even only 1$ with a 0bb/100 Ev winrate.
If you got a 0bb/100 ev winrate with a 280bb/100 std
you got 24% to make +2400bb over 18000hands....
Odds would then be around 3:1 as Yaaarny is a winning player.

Last edited by guimz; 09-21-2014 at 11:11 AM.
09-21-2014 , 10:55 AM
It's not the chance he ends 24bi up, it's the chance he will be 24bi up at any point during those 18000 hands.
09-21-2014 , 11:02 AM
My last tangent:

Enter bb/100: -10
Enter std bb/100: 280
Enter target win bbs: 10000
Enter number of hands: 100000
Enter number of trials desired: 15000
The probability 10000 bbs won succeeds is: 0.0526035

Yes, that does say a -10bb loser has a little over 5% chance to be up 100bbs at some point within 100,000 hands.
09-21-2014 , 11:11 AM
GRIZY GALAFANAKIS
09-21-2014 , 11:15 AM
How many Buyins we up too? Still 80?
09-21-2014 , 11:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChuckBass
It's not the chance he ends 24bi up, it's the chance he will be 24bi up at any point during those 18000 hands.
Ok thanks Chuck. Seems very very sick. 280bb/100 std is realistic for these 6max games?
09-21-2014 , 11:18 AM
Streeeeaaammmm
09-21-2014 , 11:35 AM
PokerStars, Omaha Pot Limit - $5/$10 ($2 ante) - 2 players
Rail Hand History Converter

Cobus83 (BU): $2558.44 (256 bb)
YaAaRnY (BB): $2595.37 (260 bb)

Pre Flop: ($19)
Cobus83 (BU) raises to $27.04, YaAaRnY (BB) 3-bets to $85.12, Cobus83 (BU) 4-bets to $259.15, YaAaRnY (BB) calls $174.03

Flop: ($522.30) 8 6 4 (2 players)
YaAaRnY (BB) checks, Cobus83 (BU) bets $203.50, YaAaRnY (BB) raises to $1132.30, Cobus83 (BU) 3-bets to $2297.29 (all-in), YaAaRnY (BB) calls $1164.99

Turn: ($5116.88) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($5116.88) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $5116.88 (Rake: $0.50)

Showdown:
YaAaRnY (BB) shows 5 6 7 8 (a straight, Four to Eight)
(Equity - pre: 39%, flop: 67%, turn: 10%, river: 0%)

Cobus83 (BU) shows 3 7 A A (a flush, Ace high)
(Equity - pre: 61%, flop: 33%, turn: 90%, river: 100%)

Cobus83 (BU) wins $5116.38
09-21-2014 , 11:39 AM
Awesome work grizy!
09-21-2014 , 11:41 AM
IS THAT COBUS83 MUSIC??? nooooooo
09-21-2014 , 11:46 AM
Expecting around the clock live stream during the finale push
09-21-2014 , 11:56 AM
PokerStars, Omaha Pot Limit - $5/$10 ($2 ante) - 6 players
Rail Hand History Converter

RockyNorth (UTG): $748.43 (75 bb)
YaAaRnY (MP): $2155.49 (216 bb)
BongBob (CO): $1429 (143 bb)
Dentist1 (BU): $1065 (107 bb)
Cobus83 (SB): $3663.01 (366 bb)
Sira Al Aziz (BB): $1000 (100 bb)

Pre Flop: ($27)
1 fold, YaAaRnY (MP) raises to $47, 2 folds, Cobus83 (SB) 3-bets to $162.86, 1 fold, YaAaRnY (MP) calls $115.86

Flop: ($347.72) 4 A J (2 players)
Cobus83 (SB) bets $244.75, YaAaRnY (MP) calls $244.75

Turn: ($837.22) K (2 players)
Cobus83 (SB) bets $525.55, YaAaRnY (MP) raises to $1745.88 (all-in), Cobus83 (SB) calls $1220.33

River: ($4328.98) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $4328.98 (Rake: $3)

Showdown:
Cobus83 (SB) shows 6 9 A A (three of a kind, Aces)
(Equity - pre: 60%, flop: 73%, turn: 43%, river: 0%)

YaAaRnY (MP) shows T T Q K (a straight, Ten to Ace)
(Equity - pre: 40%, flop: 27%, turn: 58%, river: 100%)

YaAaRnY (MP) wins $4325.98
09-21-2014 , 12:44 PM
PokerStars, Omaha Pot Limit - $5/$10 ($2 ante) - 6 players
Rail Hand History Converter

Sira Al Aziz (UTG): $625.33 (63 bb)
Cobus83 (MP): $1444.11 (144 bb)
YaAaRnY (CO): $1734.28 (173 bb)
XHEN1985 (BU): $923.03 (92 bb)
madsamot (SB): $1343.06 (134 bb)
SHANI (BB): $1443.63 (144 bb)

Pre Flop: ($27)
1 fold, Cobus83 (MP) raises to $28.42, YaAaRnY (CO) 3-bets to $112.26, 2 folds, SHANI (BB) 4-bets to $382.20, 1 fold, YaAaRnY (CO) calls $269.94

Flop: ($809.82) 3 2 8 (2 players)
SHANI (BB) bets $806.82, YaAaRnY (CO) raises to $1350.08 (all-in), SHANI (BB) calls $252.61 (all-in)

Turn: ($2928.68) 4 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($2928.68) J (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $2928.68 (Rake: $3)

Showdown:
SHANI (BB) shows 3 7 A A (a pair of Aces)
(Equity - pre: 55%, flop: 61%, turn: 63%, river: 100%)

YaAaRnY (CO) shows 4 6 9 T (a pair of Fours)
(Equity - pre: 45%, flop: 39%, turn: 38%, river: 0%)

SHANI (BB) wins $2925.68
09-21-2014 , 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy

Yes, that does say a -10bb loser has a little over 5% chance to be up 100bbs at some point within 100,000 hands.
shoulda quit while I was ahead!
09-21-2014 , 01:04 PM
I have finally read every single post and come up with a couple things-
-as soon as this started, I started railing
-s**t got real with Ben/Ike/mikka/ansky in the mix
-pretty sure he'll make mad rake back $$$$
-pretty sure Stars will forward Ike yaaarny's rake to cover cost of pushing action and profile of games
-insane to see implied value to site as all stakes have shot up in volume
-would like to see total possible profits for yaaarny rakeback/bet/profit (maybe even figure after that deducts fees for drugs and hookers bender after with Joey?!)

Regardless, thank you for filling every spare minute of my last fairly hectic 3 days, my missus wants a divorce and you're on the brink of ~a half milly month. Eat sleep PLO
09-21-2014 , 01:56 PM
Yeah this has definately been fun following, partly thanks to Joeys podcast spicing it all up, I find myself hoping the stream is on every night, keep it up!! Hope yaarny makes it, GLGLGL!!!
09-21-2014 , 02:01 PM
PokerStars, Omaha Pot Limit - $10/$20 ($4 ante) - 6 players
Rail Hand History Converter

Skjervøy (UTG): $1840.15 (92 bb)
Volody512345 (MP): $1945 (97 bb)
SmallTinyMan (CO): $2000 (100 bb)
ISILDRooN (BU): $3347.03 (167 bb)
YaAaRnY (SB): $5562.62 (278 bb)
Valorian (BB): $2645 (132 bb)

Pre Flop: ($54)
3 folds, ISILDRooN (BU) raises to $80, YaAaRnY (SB) 3-bets to $284, 1 fold, ISILDRooN (BU) calls $204

Flop: ($612) K Q 9 (2 players)
YaAaRnY (SB) bets $418, ISILDRooN (BU) calls $418

Turn: ($1448) J (2 players)
YaAaRnY (SB) checks, ISILDRooN (BU) bets $722.50, YaAaRnY (SB) calls $722.50

River: ($2893) 9 (2 players)
YaAaRnY (SB) bets $2890, ISILDRooN (BU) calls $1918.53 (all-in)

Total pot: $6730.06 (Rake: $3)

Showdown:
YaAaRnY (SB) shows 4 T K A (a straight, Ten to Ace)
(Equity - pre: 47%, flop: 47%, turn: 56%, river: 0%)

ISILDRooN (BU) shows 9 T K A (a full house, Nines full of Kings)
(Equity - pre: 53%, flop: 53%, turn: 44%, river: 100%)

ISILDRooN (BU) wins $6727.06
09-21-2014 , 02:11 PM
PokerStars, Omaha Pot Limit - $5/$10 ($2 ante) - 4 players
Rail Hand History Converter

Sira Al Aziz (UTG): $1149 (115 bb)
lautie (BU): $2338.50 (234 bb)
tha_winnah (SB): $1824.75 (182 bb)
YaAaRnY (BB): $2883.50 (288 bb)

Pre Flop: ($23)
1 fold, lautie (BU) raises to $40, 1 fold, YaAaRnY (BB) calls $30

Flop: ($93) T A 5 (2 players)
YaAaRnY (BB) checks, lautie (BU) bets $60, YaAaRnY (BB) raises to $230, lautie (BU) 3-bets to $430, YaAaRnY (BB) calls $200

Turn: ($953) 4 (2 players)
YaAaRnY (BB) checks, lautie (BU) bets $880, YaAaRnY (BB) raises to $2411.50 (all-in), lautie (BU) calls $986.50 (all-in)

River: ($4686) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $4686 (Rake: $1.50)

Showdown:
YaAaRnY (BB) shows 2 T Q A (two pair, Aces and Queens)
(Equity - pre: 49%, flop: 20%, turn: 18%, river: 0%)

lautie (BU) shows 4 5 5 K (three of a kind, Fives)
(Equity - pre: 51%, flop: 80%, turn: 83%, river: 100%)

lautie (BU) wins $4684.50
09-21-2014 , 02:15 PM
he really did call up drooon and lautie
09-21-2014 , 02:17 PM
Buyin update?

      
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