2k interest if still available

Thanks!

Good luck OP. you will need to play 200k hands with an EV winrate of 4bb/100 to BE betwise.
At these stakes not sure that's so easy .
Will enjoy following the bet for sure tho.

I'm one of the smaller bettors and therefore obv have much less at risk, but I have complete confidence in yarn. I've never met him personally or even on the forums but all of this nonsense with the webcams ect... seems like a bit too much. Unless there is a 24/7 stream which shows him sitting at chair/face/ even tables for that matter there is ALWAYS a way to get around playing all the hands.

But if him handing off some of the volume is the only concern (which is the only reason the check ins make sense) I would guess few people outside of a HS plo friend group would ever have someone play his hands in the prop bet given his amount at risk.


Will confirm my 2k later today/tmw, 95% in though but may need to WU or something, in US with limited epay options and suspended paypal account (because I run email scams obv) ill work it out with escrow(er)

Obvs +1

Good idea


Its not about thinking its to much risk with you specific at all, re: chance of foul play, its about not making it supereasy to game the bet for anyone (esp with a 300k swing in it). Been so much shady stuff post BFI that I think anyone should be really careful, not naive, on both ends to make sure things run fair.

Example (with your suggestions) whenever the 1/day phone / skype call is taken you got a 1-23 hour window where it would be high EV to get a winning player on these stakes to jump in while you got much needed rest for short (bathroom, food, powernap) or longer breaks (sleep, shower, exorcise) . Quality play + Volume is obvious key in this bet. Having someone just taking over 10% of the time would be huge. Anyone capable of 20-50% of volume would skew the odds drastically.

Nothing personal vs YaAaRnY, and I dont accuse him of anything to be 100% clear, just general comments on how I think the rules should be fair and protective vs the bettors. Not run on mostly trust on a online gambling forum when we know the history (that maybe these 2014 accounts posting dont realize).

never played someone that runs as good as yaarny against me (except maybe the love2program), so I have no doubt in my mind he will make it

also i thaught it was either 100 BI´s w/o zoom/deep or 200BI´s with both allowed!?

obviously nothing personal , but I am starting to think you just wanna see me on webcam , pm me for rates


in all seriousness though, Im in the same boat as you, its natural to put up a defence mechanism to protect yourself, and I want there to be as little chance of anything going wrong as possible, but i think the bet running with a webcam has the same possibility of going wrong as it running with random phone/skype calls, (from bettors perspective) so im just gonna go ahead and say I will put my Skype on auto answer on my phone and I will give bettors 1 call a day , upto the people if they want to bet.

200 was with 2/5 zoom included and 3/6

100 is 5/10 + any games, which i what i will be attempting .


if i had the choice i duno what id pick , i think they are pretty similar , probably go with the 200 at 2/5 so i wouldn't have to play at peak times 31 days straight

YaAaRnY I'll withdraw my interest as I thought it was 10/20+, 5/10 and zoom allowed kinda pushes it over the edge for me

GL, this way I get to root for you haha

im also thinking about withdrawing. ill let u know right before the bet

Im withdrawing , gl

are people withdrawing because all the zoom limits are also allowed?? I guess people were thinking it was 5-10 and 10-20 only regular tables originally?

well as i mentioned in first post with zoom and deep-tables allowed. this bet isnt so tough how it looks! so yeah if it is 100bis anygame im out as well.

go 200 bi and I´m in
(only 1k tho if thats ok)

Regarding ante tables, I think that winnings there should be adjusted by the initial pot size, i.e. the net winnings in every hand should be multiplied by 1.5 and then divided by the size of the initial preflop pot in bb's, e.g. multiplied by 1.5/2.7=5/9 at a full 6-max ante table. Ask me to write a PT4 stat for that if necessary, it's very easy.

I don't understand why people are so opposed to the inclusion of Zoom - though it allows for a bit more hands an hour, the field is tougher there, isn't it? Or are the bettors counting on that YaAaRnY simply won't get enough action at normal tables?

Lol, what? The difference between the AIEV and actual winnings depends on the RNG only, never on any player's strategy.

It's harder to luckbox past the 100 AIEV BI mark accidentally than past the actual 100 BI, hence, from the bettors' viewpoint, picking AIEV as the criterion will increase their chances; but it won't alter the strategy - it will still consist in making plays that net the biggest real EV.

However, YaAaRnY apparently believes that his true EV is more than 100 BI and hence will prefer the AIEV as the criterion even if the odds are the same, to prevent losing the bet because of a downswing. All in all, using the AIEV spices the action up as it makes both sides more confident of their victory

deep tables is what concerns me and also the fact that yarny runs insanely hot on a regular basis

Is my bet just ignored? Also I'm getting confused...if you play 2/5 zoom will $500 be 1 BI or will 2k be one BI??
Interested for 10k but definitely need more clarification before I confirm

damn you guys are good at confusing each other

the bet is to make 100bi (=10.000bb) at stakes 5/10 and higher (so zoom 2/5 is not included in this bet),
tables allowed are
-regular
-Zoom and
-ante
not allowed are
-HU tables.

however HU is accepted at the allowed tables (ante and regular), but he must allow others to join those tables and not keep them HU.

i would just suggest to keep this simple and go with simple bb/$ terms, then people can choose to bet or not bet as they wish.

.
..
...

wut

daamn all these people chickening out make me nervous

The "problem" are deep tables because they have lol variance.

Do something like 150-200 BI w/o deep tables at 2/4+ imo.

DP made his 100 BI at 2/4 almost 4 years ago. If you think about games having progressed since then
I think that would be quite a sick challenge.

FYP.

it's problem

Ill follow and bail out as well