This. I realize I'm probably in the "safe" category as far as severity goes if/when I catch it. But ****, the threat of unknown long-term damage is absolutely terrifying.

why do you think this? as far as I've seen there is nothing concrete saying if you get it once you're immune. pretty sure there have been numerous cases of individuals either catching it twice or the virus getting to a load point where testing cant trace it but is still there and then it builds again and they test positive at a later date.

Hog farmers are getting undercut by factory farms the same as all the other farmers.

Please cite an example of a confirmed case of someone catching the virus twice.

We had the chance to “slow down”. We’ve taken the last six weeks of lockdowns trying to gather information on the virus. And after six weeks, it is clear that our strategy is not working, and no one seem to have had a “Plan B”. We -do- now have a lot of new information about the virus, but it all point toward the benefit of rapid herd immunity.

Some of this information includes:
- Extremely high infection rate (as least 10x higher than confirmed cases)
- Lower overall lethality (~0.6% IFR)
- Extreme variations in lethality across age cohorts (0.02% IFR among those under 50)
- Significant drops in infections and deaths in areas approaching herd immunity (e.g. NYC, Northern Italy, Madrid)
- No drops in infection and deaths in metro areas with lower infection rate (suggesting social distance alone does not work)
- Debunking of claims that people have been reinfected

The same number of people are going to get the virus regardless of whether we deliberately accelerate the path toward herd immunity or not. 70% of the population is still going to be infected under “flatten the curve”, they are just going to be infect more slowly. We would be much better off choosing which 70% were infected and which 30% were protected than just leaving it up to chance.

10x the number of confirmed cases is only 3% of the population

Explain this please

Also, what’s your definition of a factory farm?

I never claimed it was explicitly that, I said some were claiming that and, like I pointed out, others believe its due to the viral load being reduced to the point of not triggering a positive test.

my main point is you seem to believe we can answer a lot of the pertinent questions based on the current available data. we cannot to any significant degree of confidence. all we have now are projections. very very early projections.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52446965

I agree; most of the estimates I’ve seen suggest about 10 million Americans have already been infected.

4/1 - 5157 (^26%)(1072 deaths)
4/2 - 6061 (^18%)(904 deaths)
4/3 - 7400 (^22%)(1339 deaths)
4/4 - 8500 (^15%)(1100 deaths)
4/5 - 9666 (^14%)(1166 deaths)
4/6 - 11,000 (^14%)(1334 deaths)
4/7 - 12,931 (^18%)(1931 deaths)
4/8 - 14,831 (^15%)(1900 deaths)
4/9 - 16,720 (^13%)(1889 deaths)
4/10 - 18,817(^13%)(2097 deaths)
4/11 - 20,650(^10%)(1833 deaths)
4/12 - 22,157(^7%)(1507 deaths)
4/13 - 23,674(^7%)(1517 deaths)
4/14 - 26,094(^10%)(2420 deaths)
4/15 - 28,605(^10%)(2511 deaths)
4/16 - 34,845(^22%)(6240 deaths)*
*-4k previous deaths tacked on
4/17 - 37,308(^7%)(2463 deaths)
4/18 - 39,116(^5%)(1808 deaths)
4/19 - 41,187(^5%)(2071 deaths)
4/20 - 42,965(^4%)(1778 deaths)
4/21 - 45,435(^6%)2470 deaths)
4/22 - 48,035(^6%)(2600 deaths)
4/23 - 50,451(^5%)(2416 deaths)
4/24 - 52,478(^4%)(2027 deaths)
4/25 - 54,177(^3%)(1699 deaths)
4/26 - 55,512(^2.5%)(1335 deaths)
4/27 - 56,722(^2%)(1210 deaths)
4/28 - 59,061(^4%)(2339 deaths)
4/29 - 61,568(^4%)(2507 deaths)

I wouldn't call that going down.

Yeah

I think we need to reevaluate how we think about how this pandemic is trending and what it means to be "peaking". It's almost meaningless to glean anything about the trajectory based on national numbers, because there are too many factors involved.

More accurately, we should be looking (and of course many experts are) at the individual trajectories of each of the 50 states, because they're each on their own path, and each state has their own quarantine measures, population density, and demographics of age, economic ability, race, obesity, etc.

To follow the percentage trends of all of that put together in one large number tells us nothing. If you look at the national death numbers, they are almost identical over the past three weeks. So one might think we're riding a peak.

But that's not the truth. The truth is that New York seems to be just past its peak. Other states are still on the way up, some of which are about to majorly increase because their dumb **** governors are opening them up. That context is completely nonexistent just based on national deaths.

I'm not saying 27 shouldn't post them anymore. Definitely appreciate the updates. Just that there isn't much point in using them to try to find any pattern or trend. The increases we've been seeing over the past month are vastly overweighed by the situation in NY.

Now we just need to wait and see what happens with these other states.

For the sake of argument I'll round some numbers, but we are basically 10k new deaths every 4-5 days. Lets call that 12k a week, and I think that is on the conservative. If that continues, and it looks like it will or even worse as other areas begin to catch up, lets just do May:

Current USA - 62,000 dead
May 1st-7th - 74,000
May 8-14th - 86,000
May 15-21st - 98,000
May 21-28th - 110,000

And that is if we stay flat now, but I can't see how that happens with all this opening up shop. The death count is basically doubling in the next month, but I can already see there is literally no way people are going to make it another month.

In the last week I have seen a paradigm shift of people getting tired of being cooped up and starting to go down the corona-hoax rabbit hole. And I'm just talking about where I live, not some shithole like FL/LA/GA.

I think this is inevitable. My only focus is ensuring that my parents stay focused and don't adopt the same attitude. If we can protect the vulnerable group that we love whilst moving towards slowly herd immunity, maybe it's not a bad thing.

What makes it so hard to predict however is, like I said in my previous post, we need to look at 50 different trends.

The main culprit of the high deaths during this months has been New York which is now decreasing, and there was always potential.for NY's numbers to be high because of its population size, and density. Obviously, the rest of the country combined has far more people than NY, but we don't yet know what increases in less populated and less concentrated areas will.lead to. What won't help of course is the states reopening and more people socializing, which adds another unknown.

We really just don't know how large of the effects those will have. I think as a range, especially since New York still has significant numbers, is a lower bound of 25k deaths, but an upper bound of 80k if this thing truly explodes in an unprecedented way.

We're about to see what happens in areas with very few measures, and there is potential for it to get very ugly.

Unfortunately, we're very stupid and stubborn country, and it seems like we might have to experience hitting rock bottom before we take it seriously.

Even here in California, the dumb ****s showed up in droves at Newport Beach recently.

Looking at excess mortality with respect to previous years suggests that the counts in Italy and Spain are off by a bit less than a factor of 2.

It is worth keeping in mind that these are among the best counts in the world.

When you factor in population density, Sweden looks the worst on the list.

Germany is the true anomaly. Italy, Spain, France are not doing things that badly.

A lot of the deaths have to do with understaffed privatized nursing homes in regions controlled by the right wing. At least in Spain this accounts for about half of all deaths.

Good vid on how to read Coronavirus confirmed cases chart.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-3Mlj3MQ_Q

A better explainer would be a video of taking the charts and depositing them directly in the trash.

ha, those SBS PSA's (have been dozens of them the last two years from their social media channels) have been A+.

Yeah I would be curious to see how many of the deaths are seniors residences or care facilities.

Part of the reason is that every week or so PA reports are lumpy and include a huge bump that's accounting for deaths in prior days that week. Over the past 8 days they've reported up 28-30% 2x, while other days are down 14%, flat, up 3, up 3, up 4, up 6 and up 7.

For instance on the 24th we got 332 fewer deaths and then yesterday 479 more. Average the two totals you get around +1840 on the day [355 fewer when normalized] or a 6.9% rise each day instead of massively down and massively up. Which is more likely correct given the trends? Normalized each day is up btw 0-7% with most days up 3-6%.

The US numbers would look better at up 2152 yesterday instead, up 3.6% vs up 6% last week's prior, although I am not saying 'all is well.'

Things to keep in mind:

1) The nationwide peak was always expected to plateau before slowly coming down because the nationwide stats are the sum of a lot of different curves from places which all shut down at slightly different times.

2) The places that have actually shut down (the large metro areas) have generally seen good results. Those good results -- in terms of new infections which will drive the May death tolls -- have been offset to some degree by outbreaks in rural areas, particularly in meatpacking plants which were high-risk environments which weren't even taking basic precautions. It's misleading to look at raw totals and use it to judge the effects of what will happen in specific places. At least where I live, infection levels are low and steadily falling, things are planned to reopen *very* slowly, and efforts are ongoing to implement trace/test/isolate. We should be fine, and it doesn't make any difference that state-level infections are on the rise due to few meatpacking plants 300 miles away.


Some places are definitely going to screw it up. But most places where most of the population lives are being smart and cautious.

I date a nursing home administrator that works for a large company that owns many facilities in right wing states. Your implications are wrong.